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Vanguard Global ex-US Real Estate ETF Message Board

zebra887 8 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 21, 2015 5:16 AM Member since: Feb 27, 2000
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  • zebra887 zebra887 Feb 21, 2015 5:16 AM Flag

    what about the after hours trade down big....any importance???

  • Reply to

    Taho the cheapest silver stock

    by simulpaolo68 Dec 10, 2014 5:23 AM
    zebra887 zebra887 Jan 17, 2015 8:13 PM Flag

    Pretty well timed call simulpalo68, the actual low coming just a few days after your post and a dollar or more lower. It looks like the royalty legislation may take a few more percent off the top, but it looks like with silver catching a bid at last that higher prices are on the horizon for the shares as it breaks above a long term downtrend.

  • Reply to

    A Better Way

    by freezemotion Dec 31, 2014 4:26 PM
    zebra887 zebra887 Jan 1, 2015 6:19 AM Flag

    ...."it also gives me downside protection to $17.24" - this should read "OR it gives me downside protection to $17.24." Important difference is that between "also" and "or". If price declines to $17.24 your nice 6.7% premium offsets price make nothing. The problem is, and probably the one the managers of CEF are facing, is if the price declines at a greater rate than 6.7% at any time during the period between now and February expiration. Two down days of 3% and the position will be well into the red as the decline in the option will only be about half the decline in the stock, especially if the decline occurs early in January, in this case.

    A position that involves the sale of covered options, which limits upside potential to in your case with GDX to about 6.8%, while presenting exposure far greater than 6.8% on the downside, ultimately is a losing we are witnessing in GGN..

    The natural reaction in the event of a decline below your "protection" is to roll down your strike in order to get more premium, hence more protection. Then in the event of a rally you are called away at a price below your initial purchase, your incur a loss on the stock, maybe you earn enough premium overall to offset the stock price loss...maybe.

    I think the only way to prosper in this game is to be right with respect to the level the stock might drop...say maximum $16 for GDX....and repeatedly sell the $18.50 calls regardless of where the issue is priced at roll over time, whether above or below. Sometimes you'll get high percentage premiums (or protection) other times low; but moving the strike price about up or down is the big mistake either in the event of a loss in the stock's value or a gain...

    (Of course in the case of an outsized move say to $25 in GDX you might wish to move up to the $20s or $22s.)

    Covered options sales is a much trickier game than it is sold to be. Premium collection and protection are the same; one or the other - , Good fortune to you

  • zebra887 zebra887 Dec 9, 2014 5:01 AM Flag

    Don't think the game is over for AG, though it might be a tough haul as silver bases between $16 and $19 before the next major QE program is announced...

  • Reply to

    Silver under $15

    by caseydickinsonjr Nov 30, 2014 7:00 PM
    zebra887 zebra887 Dec 9, 2014 4:58 AM Flag

    If you get filled I'll buy with you...maybe on a metals wash out at the end of the year, like last. I have a suspicion that the metal markets will be controlled through the end of the year for derivative settlement purposes, and then POP...If it is from $2.5, which I doubt or $4 which I believe it ought to be 50% or more...and the lower she goes as in to $2.5 the MORE the POP. See you at $7.50 in January.....

  • zebra887 zebra887 Dec 9, 2014 4:56 AM Flag

    How low can can the value of the reserve go...??? Anybody with a time horizon of a year or more will be rewarded at these sub $4 my opinion and admittedly dreams...

  • Reply to

    Strong Buy Soon

    by amiagolfr Dec 2, 2014 1:05 PM
    zebra887 zebra887 Dec 9, 2014 4:54 AM Flag

    I hope so..the soon er after Jan 1 the better.

  • Reply to

    IN at 4.15

    by sakhaneft Dec 1, 2014 10:24 AM
    zebra887 zebra887 Dec 9, 2014 4:52 AM Flag

    Good for your sakaneft....thank you for supporting the cause..mine at least....Now the proud owner of some Jan $5 calls, priced at 10 cents. Given the headwinds of deflation, lower oil prices and contracting economy, I frankly don't have very high hopes for these babies. But a little post tax loss selling rally action might see AG get to $7.50...With Silver up to $20, my goodness I'll be delirious

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