Don't think the game is over for AG, though it might be a tough haul as silver bases between $16 and $19 before the next major QE program is announced...
If you get filled I'll buy with you...maybe on a metals wash out at the end of the year, like last. I have a suspicion that the metal markets will be controlled through the end of the year for derivative settlement purposes, and then POP...If it is from $2.5, which I doubt or $4 which I believe it ought to be 50% or more...and the lower she goes as in to $2.5 the MORE the POP. See you at $7.50 in January.....
How low can can the value of the reserve go...??? Anybody with a time horizon of a year or more will be rewarded at these sub $4 prices....in my opinion and admittedly dreams...
Good for your sakaneft....thank you for supporting the cause..mine at least....Now the proud owner of some Jan $5 calls, priced at 10 cents. Given the headwinds of deflation, lower oil prices and contracting economy, I frankly don't have very high hopes for these babies. But a little post tax loss selling rally action might see AG get to $7.50...With Silver up to $20, my goodness I'll be delirious
beabaggage, appreciate you steady tone in the face of the nearly 20% sell off. I don't suppose you have seen anything about production that would concern you - as in declining rates there of?
Without having all the answers I would like from a good accountant analysis of the funds earnings I think investors have come to learn that a large part of the monthly distribution is return of capital. Secondly the funds administration cost have eaten a big hole in premium earnings. Gold stocks are back to 2008 lows, energy is tanking, its little wonder the fund is falling in price...option premiums are not covering the drop in prices of the underlying.
Reduced further this week..
The fund earns income selling options but if the underlying stock falls more than the premium earned there is a loss...Additionally, the fund sells ever lower options during price declines and gets caught at the bottom with options moving against them with an upside ceiling on their stocks' gains.
Full round trip this year...wait till the miners and energy bottom before committing big bucks to this game. my advice to me.
Looks like "we" were wrong to expect consolidation in the week beginning September 22. Something radical is going to have to change to save off another down year for this miner and most others. Tax loss selling starts soon.
I like the way this ETF is structured - to change its composition given individual company developments.
Also it seems a good fit with XLV, the healthcare ETF. Very good day, here, Wednesday Sept 24 - new highs, increase in volume.
Premium has been knocked out of this issue. It has traded both sides of NAV this year and was especially under NAV late last year. Sentiment swings, I guess. I have promised myself to take another look at the latest earnings report for GGN with the hope of understanding some of its unclear parts - at least to me. Operational expenses seemed quite, consuming a huge amount of premium income, and there was a line that was well into the millions of dollars that was headlined: "return of capital."
I am not sure I fully understand what the real returns have been on this investment, even in the good first month period of this year.
I would like to believe that a few professionals could generate positive returns buying stocks and selling options on them. This works in a steady to rising market but not in one that is in free fall as we've seen lately for miners and energy companies and certainly as we saw in late 2013 and 2008. One percent a month in distributions doesn't cut it when the share price is falling that much a day.
It should also be considered that there is more downside risk than upside potential in the course of the strategy affording a 9 cents monthly distribution. By selling options on stocks owned, upside is limited, capped or reduced even when the position is rolled up and higher strike options sold. Meanwhile the downside is only partially protected by selling options, and ultimately one has low priced covered calls sold at the bottom.
Oil shares, miners in free fall. No surprise GGN is in a tailspin. I'm in no hurry, now, to establish position I once had when it was rising...Certainly not until there is something concrete to suggestion the commodity deflation is over.
I am figuring $20 will be tested on a continuation of Friday's decline....However open interest for Friday show an increase of 3200 contracts of Silver Comex silver....some strong longs are evident.
Chinese silver inventories down 1% in the last week...still about 93 tons, that's only about 3.5 million ozs. May or may not be as bullish as it sounds. Must watch what happens on the Comex relative to open interest particularly in the Oct and Nov contracts. If those numbers start to increase with the assumption delivery is going to be taken there may be something to the Harvey Organ theory that the COMEX is going to be raided by Chinese longs before years end. I tend to doubt there is any massive bull market in silver building, but that is only based on price trends...Will be watching and thinking the $25 January calls make the most sense.
If the dec delivery is heavy, wiping out the Comex, certainly one is a winner with the $25 SLW calls. If silver languishes as it did last year into years end, you have the new year post tax loss relief rally to get you near even.
One must think that the silver out of the Shanghai exchange has gone somewhere, potentially not very far only to return on the first bit of price advance. Otherwise the assumption has to be that the silver has gone to jewelry or industry never to return.....place you bets.
Right on....all these silver plays are missing....except Tahoe which declined anyway. Got out of AG early, thank goodness...
Not yet our time.
They ain't going to be able to put lip stick on this pig...I see down a dollar...DARN DARN DARN, should have sold on that pop yesterday. No wonder the stock closed near its low....
The only thing that I can say is that with the silver price this low a few cents of earnings here or there aren't going to make much real difference in the long term...So we go back to $9; do we believe the company can earn good money if the price of silver ever gets to $30 again....I for one believe it can and while even then it might disappoint by a few cents on earnings in a given quarter, the earnings will be substantially higher.
Bottom line: lose more money in the short term on this item. If I had had as much confidence in your face FACE BOOK or Apple as I have had in silver and its related my life would be significantly different./
Call me to the hanging of JPMorgan...#$%$ #$%$ thieves