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Vanguard Global ex-US Real Estate ETF Message Board

zebra887 16 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 26, 2014 2:51 AM Member since: Feb 27, 2000
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  • SLW took out or surpassed the last nine closes with the late spurt on Friday on slightly better volume than the two previous days.While I suspect some of Friday's gain will be given back after a possible higher opening come Monday, and especially with all the flack PMs have to face next week, I am encouraged that we're going to go higher. Especially now that we enter the favorable seasonal period for the metals.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Secondary Offering within 1%

    by frn_scam Jul 10, 2014 11:34 AM
    zebra887 zebra887 Jul 22, 2014 11:12 PM Flag

    Premium has backed off to mid twos...I wonder why Sprott didn't do a secondary....Could have really goosed the market if they'd come in for 20 million ozs. Suppose they have good reason though it is never discussed...I'd also like to know what the short open interest is in PSLV...

  • Reply to

    from a true silver bull

    by happiesthihosilveraway Jul 19, 2014 12:41 PM
    zebra887 zebra887 Jul 19, 2014 11:36 PM Flag

    I rather liked the way SLW closed on Friday

  • Reply to

    from a true silver bull

    by happiesthihosilveraway Jul 19, 2014 12:41 PM
    zebra887 zebra887 Jul 19, 2014 11:35 PM Flag

    That was a resounding endorsement.

  • I'd like this to come down some so I would be more comfortable putting back on my full position sold just before the X-date....Sale has worked out so far to my account's advantage. I suspect being greedy will be my undoing...The three percent premium may reflect some positive with respect to future distributions going back up or as suggested a special at year's end. Don't know, just speculating, which is after all what we do here...

    The anticipation would be for gold and thus miner weakness going through the last week of July and options expiration and first notice day for the August contract. For we short term bears I am reminded: there is no good news that is anticipated....

    A look at commodities will tell you there is a bear market going on. Energy seems to swing with the the latest geopolitical concern, especially if it impacts oil supplies...Metals are just plain manipulated...one has to play the manipulators and only buy weakness. All and all I look for a soft GGN price for a couple of weeks, but after that if miners and energy get into rally mode, look out above...

    My guess, only.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • zebra887 zebra887 Jul 15, 2014 11:42 PM Flag

    Reduced position....this market manipulation is getting to be old hat....just can't expect rallies to follow through with the CABAL bashing price....15 million oz annual production good for the company but at $20 silver how much money can they make....I've said before they ought to sell just enough silver to meet expenses and safe harbor the rest.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • zebra887 zebra887 Jul 12, 2014 3:08 AM Flag

    won't get over $12.5 until silver passes $25. Reduce position today am going to spread out over the sector and probably use SIL to do so...
    good fortune to the longs....I just think the mexican tax hike took the wind out these sails...It was probably too good a deal that wasn't going to last...to bad the price of silver hadn't stayed at $40.

    Do the math...at $40 times 13 million oz at a profit margin of 30% down from the high 40s that's about $1.40 a share...or about $21 as a share price given a 15 PE....Silver is about half $40 and the share price is about half $21. Should profitability metrics start to materialized that are different than those noted above, and if they buy back some shares, and don't do some capital intensive acquisition, we''ll likely see new all time highs with silver at $40.

  • Reply to

    just call me weird but

    by charliedaubitz Jul 2, 2014 1:27 PM
    zebra887 zebra887 Jul 12, 2014 2:59 AM Flag

    Problem I see is their financial situation...Looks like a bumper is at work here, using any news available to promote the issue for a stock offering...Bought shares, sold when the momentum dried up...This drop from 85 back to 62 in a matter of days is very suspect...I love the story but doubt they have the money to commercialize. Could be wrong, of course, but I see much hope but little cash....A group is actively promoting the stock which is not all bad if the company actually has the goods....

  • zebra887 zebra887 Jun 29, 2014 2:23 AM Flag

    I suspect there is going to be a sell off in the metals through next week, and potentially of oil, if declining commodity trends, generally, are not offset by Iraq considerations. $43.35 could be seen if oil breaks $105 and gold and silver go into full scale retreat which the commitment of traders report strongly suggest they will.

    Looking for about a $2.50 correction....similar to others seen in the not too distant past.

  • Reply to

    New high new players CNQ 44.80

    by carolyn_novice Jun 20, 2014 12:58 PM
    zebra887 zebra887 Jun 20, 2014 8:25 PM Flag

    Big move in the after hours...wonder if it was on volume....Trend is strong; I think you'll see the $47.50 high end of the range hit and exceeded sooner than the next three months.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • zebra887 zebra887 May 19, 2014 11:55 AM Flag

    Valid point about higher taxes though I am not sure your numbers below prove that the tax is now 40% on incremental income going forward. Based on taxes paid in the last quarter the rate would be 42.7%. I think we'll find out when accounting stabilizes following the change that its its around 25%...If you find out from the horse's mouth something different please let us know....of course after you sell your shares.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • zebra887 zebra887 May 13, 2014 10:30 PM Flag

    good presentation, showing massive increase in free cash flow going forward....good for dividends and buy backs....thanks for posting the availability of the presentation.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • or dividend seekers piling in for the payout.....I suspect we'll see a post dividend day pullback to the gap left today above $10.40....hope so at least...This item has been performing very well this year, quite the opposite from last year when miners were tanking and the distribution was cut...Higher miner and oil company stock prices ought to bring back the distribution which will fuel further increases in GGN price...

  • Reply to

    21.50

    by sharpie3444 May 7, 2014 3:09 PM
    zebra887 zebra887 May 7, 2014 6:53 PM Flag

    Good analysis, enjoy your posts...finding them of value.

  • Estimate now is for earnings of 9 cent per share in the first quarter and 41 cents for the year. I quickly did the calculation and the year end PE would be 25 if the price were just over $10 for AG's stock...If year end earnings looked likely to jump 50% due to a similar increase in the price of silver (maybe something a little less) and investors became so carried away with the prospects for silver miners, given a higher price of silver (say something approaching $30, again,) such that they were willing to afford AG a 30PE on say 60 cents of earnings, AG's share price would be $18.

    Seemingly it is going to take something pretty earth shaking to get JPMorgan's boot off the neck of the silver price, however. First problem is establishing that there is any shortage of silver. Why isn't the silver ETF SLV raided for silver the way that GLD is...I would be grand to hear one of the bullish perma bulls answer that question.

    I believe it is entirely possible that with the US government in control of these markets that they may stay depressed for YEARS to come....Sprott, Embry, and others could be in their graves before a 50% rally in Silver occurs and is sustained...key word "sustained"...

  • Reply to

    PDH Xdiv today

    by reading_tee_leaves May 1, 2014 9:55 AM
    zebra887 zebra887 May 1, 2014 4:01 PM Flag

    Quite the shake out for going x-dividend...almost twice the dividend amount .... Was the rise to $14 just dividend chasers who are now bailing...? Added shares at $12.65 which I notice are under water...oh well...

    Sentiment: Buy

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