Like everyone else, I was shocked by the news this morning. I guess we dreamed about an island, but all we got was a bucket of sand.
Maybe because of the seemingly endless delay in releasing the results, I decided to sell off a bit over the last few weeks. I still lost a little, but I feel like I dodged a bullet. For anyone who feels like they took a bullet this morning, well - been there, done that. I know how you're feeling right about now.
But of course, so much more was at stake today besides the money. Most of the serious people here have been affected by AD in one way or another. And we go from hopeful to bewildered in the span of a moment. Strange feeling. It was too late for PBT2 to ever help my dad, but I felt like today, maybe we were turning a corner. Maybe we wouldn't have to fear the future quite so much. So much for that.
Today was a cold and rainy day in Boston. Really depressing. Eight inches of water in the basement. I'll be pumping it out all night. But they say tomorrow should be sunny, and a little warmer.
This is the AD 2.0 approach. PBT2 is the spearhead of that effort. It might be the first effective treatment for AD, but it certainly won't be the last.
This is science at its best.
Interesting, of course. I would disagree with this statement though:
“This is the first study that is really starting to provide a plausible pathway to explain why some people are more vulnerable to Alzheimer’s than other people.”
The Metal Theory of AD attempts to explain this, and there's a wealth of solid research behind it. If REST is involved in AD, it will be many years, if ever, before it could provide a useful therapeutic. Meanwhile, IMAGINE results could be released tomorrow, and that could result in a paradigm shift in AD research, and a viable treatment within a few years.
Don't get me wrong, this is interesting research. Maybe another piece of a complex puzzle. Maybe another dead end. It will be a long time before we know. On the other hand, in less than ten days, we'll know a lot more about the Metal Theory of AD. In fact, we know a lot more about the potential of PBT2 and the Metal Theory right now that we do about REST. So, far be it from me to give advice to the NYT, but I think there's a much bigger story out there. Where's the feature on PBT2?
The mention of lithium is also interesting. Metals? AD?
If the IMAGINE results justify a move to phase 3, raising the cash to do it will not be a problem. It will be a risk-reward opportunity of a lifetime.
We don't know the results. Having said that, a 'big miss' is unlikely. Consider the doctors requesting the extension, Lawler, the earlier AD trial, Reach2HD, and so on. Anything is possible, but I don't think many informed people are expecting a big miss.
When you consider the 'other' AD candidates, and use those failures to downplay PBT2's results - well, don't be so quick to do that. We learned from those failures, and that is part of what is driving the hope for PBT2. This drug works by a very different mechanism. Yes, clearing AB plaque is part of it, as with the other approaches. But it's much more than that. PBT2 is based on a well-developed (not complete) AD theory. They are not throwing something against the wall and hoping that it sticks. This is an AD 2.0 approach.
Odds are very good that it's on to phase 3.
Well, I think the point is that whether the stock is trading at 10 or 5 before the results, if the results are positive, it will be trading much, much higher afterwards. With the tremendous potential of this stock, the starting point doesn't matter as much as how far it will go if the results are good.
You should have held out for more. I get $50,000 a month to drop my pearls of wisdom here on Yahoo MB. Can anyone beat that?
You scooped me, I was about to post the same thing!
This time it ain't Julius, but the short-sellers who need to beware. You're about to be stabbed in the portfolio.
There's no doubt that extensive validation would be required, and that 90% is far less than optimal. But when you have nothing, something looks pretty good. It's a start. We could say the same thing about PBT2. It may not turn out to be a miracle cure, but on the other hand, it may turn out to be the starting point for effective treatment. That would still be an exciting development.
So we may be closer than some think to the idea that you can take a test similar to cholesterol for cardiac disease, but instead of taking Lipitor if your results are too high, you take PBT2.
"A blood test that can detect Alzheimer’s disease up to three years before the onset of symptoms has been developed by scientists who believe that it could lead to the early diagnosis of progressive dementia in elderly people."
"A team of researchers led by Howard Federoff of Georgetown University Medical Centre in Washington identified 10 lipids in the blood that can be used to detect the early signs of Alzheimer’s or other forms of dementia..."
The link is enormous, so just Google it.
Yeah, in the end, it's only the hard data that counts. And regarding that ... we shall know very soon.
The two groups having the best insight as to the results would be the patient families and the doctors treating them.
The families are keenly attuned to the day-to-day state of their AD relative. Even the most subtle change would be noticed. My dad recently began taking a new medication to treat his agitation, and wow, it was noticeable. You wouldn't have a clue anything had changed. I saw the unmistakable change in a matter of days.
If my dad were taking PBT2, I would most certainly notice any change in him. No doubt. It's in the nature of the disease that you have to be tuned into the AD patient 24/7. You have to always know where they are, what they're doing, if they're hungry, if they're confused, if they're agitated, if they're content. It's part of the reason the disease is so taxing for the families. Any change, even slight, and you know it.
The doctors are not wide-eyed optimists, they're applied scientists. That they recommended the extension, of course, speaks volumes. Just like an unemployment rate below 5% is essentially full-employment, the extension participation rate is essentially full participation. There are always circumstances where patients may decline to enroll. Maybe one or two placebo patients were too dull-witted to take the doctor's advice - I really, really, really (wink, wink, wink) think you should try PBT2.
Anyway, without seeing the trial data, this is about as strong a signal as you can get that something very good is happening.
FixingTheMetalBrain d-o,t c,o,m
Sorry for the shameless plug.
Very well said. I was surprised to see Tanzi get into a Twitter war with AF on the big day. He is, after all, one of the most respected scientists in the field, and here he is knocking it back and forth with that two-bit twit. Yet, you could sense his anger. On such a hopeful day, he has to respond to an orchestrated attack by the likes of AF and company.
Yet he has to respond. It's his life's work that's being smeared. Yeah, it was a smear job. Not everybody follows Prana and PBT2 as closely as we do, and if AF controls the narrative, then he's as believable as anybody else. You almost hate to even acknowledge the likes of AF, but you must. Expect more fireworks after the IMAGINE results.
Remember just before the HD results were released, and Tanzi was putting out all those mysterious and giddy tweets. He was telling us something without actually saying it. He seems to be in that same giddy mood now. What's he telling us?
Nice find indeed. Now, who you gonna believe - some twit from SA or scientists from the Whitehead Institute?