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Echo Global Logistics, Inc. (ECHO) Message Board

ziippitty 14 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 14, 2014 4:29 PM Member since: Sep 5, 2006
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  • Reply to

    XPO is getting crushed - down 6%

    by fanzibar Apr 10, 2014 4:15 PM
    ziippitty ziippitty Apr 14, 2014 4:29 PM Flag

    XPO will go up and XPO will go down. They will add staff. They will lose staff. They will buy. They will divest. Nobody can read into the future but we all hope some huge international player with more money than the Arabs decides they want to be in USA logistics and will pay a premium to take out XPO at a premium. Nobody knows. That is why we all have to be well spread out and hope we win some, lose less, and do just ok on everything else. Good luck to all.

  • Reply to

    Just Amazing

    by fanzibar Feb 25, 2014 4:30 PM
    ziippitty ziippitty Feb 26, 2014 2:15 PM Flag

    I guess we will see how it turns out. you have to give the guy a lot of credit though for getting a $2b market cap on an unprofitable company in a tough and margin challenged industry. In 3 years he has taken a tiny company to be a top 5 player in terms of market valuation. I can bet he will keep issuing stock and raising cash while the story still smells good. At this rate he can buy all the top players in 5 years and be the top dog. All it needs is public cash and they seem to be throwing it at him.

  • Reply to

    Just Amazing

    by fanzibar Feb 25, 2014 4:30 PM
    ziippitty ziippitty Feb 25, 2014 5:51 PM Flag

    Yahoo says mkt cap at 924m but i don't know if that includes all the new shares issued. if not the cap will be about $1.4 billion or so I guess.

  • Reply to

    The CHR race to the bottom

    by ziippitty Feb 14, 2014 11:38 AM
    ziippitty ziippitty Feb 17, 2014 4:22 PM Flag

    There is a lot going on in the 3PL space. There will be a lot of losers and a few winners. Tough to call.

  • I read a lot of the posts with interest. Much more consolidation is expected in the space for the next 5 years at a steady clip. CHR will see a LOT more competition from true "national players" and rpm prices will keep falling as larger 3PL's all squeeze costs in a race to the bottom. This is already happening. XPO, Coyote etc all seem to be happy to price at a loss as long as they seem to get unlimited amounts of cash from investors. As long as they do the losses don't matter and rpm pricing keeps falling.

    The sad thing is, all the new sales people are 25 yr old newbies with zero experience and they come and go like yo-yo's. In my office maybe 1 in 20 of the newbies last a year and 1 in 50 actually make a decent living in 3 to 5 years. That is why the bigger and better shippers hate CHR, TQL, Freightquote, Blue Grace, XPO, Coyote and the others quoted in other posts. The newbies are all promises and then all excuses when they can't find a truck for the low LOW price quoted.

    Also, CHR and the others are purging the really good brokers / sales dudes as they cost too much and they then warm the seat with a kid from college for 70% less money and tell them to make 100 calls a day. Shippers are sick of the calls and eventually just don't take them. Real relationships are rare today. All the large brokers are shooting themselves in the head. All these new kids think their sh1t don't smell and they expect to be a "manager" right out of college with no effort put in. I see it daily. There is no real work ethic from these kids and the brokers just cast a net, throw them on the floor, and push out the 95% than fail as soon as they can. The next crew are given the SAME call list and are told to hit the phones. SAD SAD SAD. It is all about money and costs. A race to the bottom. Ironically, CHR was always THE cheap broker and so made huge profits on the large network. Everyone wanted to join the party and got unlimited cash to do so. I can't wait to retire LOL.

  • Reply to

    Will XPO consider buying ECHO?

    by tec.stock Feb 12, 2014 2:51 PM
    ziippitty ziippitty Feb 12, 2014 5:00 PM Flag

    i dont think it could ever happen. Echo is a 10m ebit company. Worth 100m (10x) tops. current mkt cap is 373m. that is like blowing their entire recent offering to get 10m per year in ebit. i doubt it.

  • if XPO were biotech I would be buying. The sad thing for all current holders is the scam being run by the institutions. XPO will never ever be more than a freight broker / forwarder which, at BEST, will make 5% in NET (true EBITDA) profits if they run THE worlds most perfect and low cost operations. So the end game is pretty obvious. Yes, for now we are all playing with fire and hoping some other idiot buys when we decide to sell. But remember my words when I say that XPO will need to be a $20 billion player with the worlds best profit margins to be worth even their current stock price. Facts are facts. Good luck to those that are able to get out beforehand. It is simple math combined with simple facts. I may be wrong of course. They may decide to buy a biotech company with a cure for cancer. LOL.

  • The subject header says it all. Why are we all chasing a 1,313 P/E? Where did we all lose our heads?

  • Reply to

    XPO Up 560% in 5 years

    by ms17g Jan 29, 2014 1:22 PM
    ziippitty ziippitty Jan 29, 2014 1:52 PM Flag

    You r idiotic comment is noted. For those of Rg to make forward looking decisions and timing a turn we thank you for telling us something we had nt noticed prior to your post.

  • Is a trend emerging or is this a blip?

  • ziippitty ziippitty Jan 27, 2014 5:27 PM Flag

    Fanz, the new offering is a not so small 50% of the total shares outstanding. As they say, go big or go home I guess.

  • Reply to

    Earnings Question

    by ziippitty Jan 27, 2014 5:10 PM
    ziippitty ziippitty Jan 27, 2014 5:22 PM Flag

    By the way, why did they issue a "preliminary results" statement? What is the meaning behind this? Does anyone know? Is it because they need the cash so badly for the new offering to succeed that they need to try to push out some decent news to get investors in the offering on board? Maybe they cannot get the Pacer deal done without the offering bringing in the cash. Any ideas you guys?.

  • ziippitty by ziippitty Jan 27, 2014 5:10 PM Flag

    What does this mean:

    "Positive EBITDA performance in the quarter after the following expected negative impacts: $1.1-1.3 mln of transaction costs; $0.9-1.1 mln of litigation costs; and $1.3-1.5 mln of non-cash share based compensation cost."

    Does it mean they lost money again or made a profit? Are they saying they only made money if they ignore certain costs?

  • Reply to

    is xpo bait and switch

    by realshazard Jan 18, 2014 9:33 PM
    ziippitty ziippitty Jan 21, 2014 1:41 PM Flag

    Time will tell. He has a HUGE job though to tie these very different pieces together. They are all so different that synergies cannot be found like they could have if all the freight businesses were the same.

    They also need to make a profit very soon (Q4 2013 was promised to us early last year). Even when they do their P/E multiple will be off the charts high when compared to their peers. They also have hefty debt now ($500m or more???) and for a company with zero profits they have had a heavy cash burn. This is a very mature and staid industry with compressing margins.

    BUT - he has delivered so far with the deals and revenue growth. One could argue that was the easy part though. Profits and reduction of debt will be key in 2014. When I look at the market cap of those companies I follow I always ask myself "would I buy this company for that value." The answer today is "no" for XPO because the chance of upside is small compared to the CURRENT downside risk. Perhaps this will change in the future and I will be prepared to buy again.

    As I always say, take your profits and don't get greedy LOL.

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