If the company knew about buyout, then they would have preferably exercised the warrants to "shares", if not, they would have exercised to "cash" unless the agreement supports reimbursement for buyout. In their interest, the companies are betting on a partnership to gain more on the warrants which hints that a partnership is more likely. However, the entire NuPathe story does not make sense yet. For most companies, partnership discussions take place before the drug is even approved and here we are sitting with Zecuity nearly one year after approval without any hints/signs of partnership. If Zecuity is deemed to be as valuable as most people think, then why the delay? Companies would be in line trying to partner, no way it takes forever to secure a deal. The only plausible explanation of Zecuity delay could be if NuPathe is to acquired such that they can take the back seat and progress slowly per the acquirer's interest, but this is a very big assumption and nothing is yet official.
mkmnymklv - could you please explain how you got the 1.45 in your equation:
200K * (1.725- X) + 200k * (1.45-X) = 200K * ( 3.175-2X)
This is something that I did not pull out from no where. Yes he said "we are having our best quarter for revenue ever we are in right now" during the small cap voice interview dated 8-20-13 (4:14-416 recorded time), google it. Revenue for this quarter was at 115.8K, which is the best they had since Sept 2011. I was a little surprised when I saw the 10Q, was expecting 150K+ to match his words, however the revenue still beats the 75K projected by AMI Research. Their projection next year is over Millions per quarter, which is a good sign for ADMD. Jim could have been a little excited during the interview and might not have looked into his books before saying that. Anyway, all is good. Good Luck.
Correct. The conference call is very crucial for the company, and I know it will go well. I do not have any position but will be carefully watching the stock from the sidelines. The stock is slightly at overbought territory with an RSI(14) of ~74, if I see the stock pullback then I will immediately open a position. This stock will continue to be on my radar, if anyone can not make the CC, don't forget the webcast for replay will be available for two days.
Good Luck to all of you.
Also the answer was "we are talking to more than one partners", therefore it can easily be 2, 3, 4, 5 .....
I agree, deal is not imminent in the next week or two, however it can be inferred that negotiation is still in place and with manufacturing activities moving forward they are in a good position in a month or two to negotiate a good deal.
I infer two things - there is a bid between multiple parties, and Zecuity is of interest to both of them. One of their conditions may require NuPathe to complete their manufacturing and validation activities which is why Armando stated "with manufacturing moving forward and being able to ship product by the end of the year, we are in the best position ever to secure a partner". I think the company is moving in the right direction and will be in the best position to negotiate a good deal in a month or two.
At this time, buyout seems to be the most logical outcome. There is a reason why they moved to a new location with a bigger manufacturing facility. If they were to partner with someone, the deal will be like 30-50M upfront, partner will manufacture the medical device and both parties to share profit 50/50. I was under the impression that they would raise capital and go alone after they signed the lease at a bigger facility, now that we know going alone is out of the equation, the only logical conjecture is a buyout from big Pharma.
I listened to the webcast very carefully a couple of times, and I felt very optimistic about securing a partnership or even a potential buyout in the next 1-2 months. Armando was reiterating the term "substantial progress" quite a few times, which makes it appear that something substantial is about to come in fruition. I think we may be closer than ever. One thing for sure is we are not going alone, and with major institute ownership this company is not going to go BK, period. From the corporate level, they may reassess their terms and conditions for partners to secure an agreement that they are in conversation with. I am not sure how the market will react, but one thing for sure is a lot of these negativity and lack of partnerships were already priced in going to the CC. The IPO of this company was at 50M which is where I draw the baseline for what this company should worth before we hear anything substantial. This correlates to $1.60 at the downside.
I regret selling it for 50% profit, could have easily doubled, I thought the stock would pull back after investors selling off from some profits, but I was wrong. Apparently, that was not the case. Oh well, I wish you guys all the best. I will continue to watch from the sidelines and will invest back in. Until then, good lock SS and MOTO.
After looking at the sidelines, it appears that the dust has finally settled, and 1.10 is clearly a strong support. I decided to take a LONG term position here (~1.11). I do not foresee significant downside from this price. Facts - the company has total assets equivalent to 36.5M which is more than their market cap; Z944 in clinical development and good partner programs.
I predict the stock price to be at least 1.50 by the end of the year, and that is when you will hear back from me.
I concur to you both. The chart shows a very strong support at 0.06 and it will be just a mater of time before we break out. We are closing the gap with the 200 day moving average at 0.086, the next big news will clearly shoot us beyond 0.086. I am getting very excited with Q3 earnings and highlights on the recent business trips to europe, any good news to this nature can skyrocket the stock.
Drj - Not sure what you mean by 1-9-14 contract with LTS? Could you please expand? Also, what makes you speculate about the partnership? The PR from the company today states that "NuPathe is actively looking for partnerships...." which corroborates they have not yet finalized a deal.
I don't think there will be a delay in launch, however we may hear the same BS from the management "we are actively seeking potential partners".
Should have took some profits this morning, saw this coming after seeing much of the pumping (Novartis, partnership, 20$ pps, etc.) in the last couple of days. I bet some of the pumpers got their profits out.