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Cray Inc. Message Board

zippybalto 13 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 29, 2015 9:46 AM Member since: Oct 14, 2011
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  • From the earnings announcement:
    "At this range, GAAP income per share from continuing operations is forecasted to be higher than our prior guidance due to the Company's strong year-to-date performance, and is now projected to be in the
    range of $0.35 to $0.38."

    And that was GAAP; Non-GAAP guidance for the full year is $0.19 higher, well above current consensus.

    Anybody selling MRCY this morning is a complete dope. Don't believe me? Read the earnings release yourself:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/mercury-systems-reports-third-quarter-200100224.html

    ZB

  • Thank you idiots for putting this on sale. Stocking up big time. Lots of cash flow and international expansion coming in 2015. Plus all the cost cutting they did last year makes beating #s in 2015 that much easier. Here's how good things are going. This is from the CEO on the earnings call:
    "Despite pricing cuts to Medicare, which we announced last November of approximately $6 million, we are anticipating increased Revenue, EBITDA and Free Cash Flow for 2015."

    Woo hoo!

    ZB

  • Straight from the earnings release:
    "Annual cash flow from operations to be in the range of $61 million to $66 million in 2015 [It was $54.0 million in 2014]. The Company's outlook for 2015 annual adjusted EBITDA is expected to be in the range of $75 million to $80 million. [It was $72 million in 2014]"
    Don't be confused because a bunch of analysts were too optimistic about 2015. Back here in the real world, ARC is kicking #$%$, growing revenues and generating real cash and cash flow growth for shareholders. Oh and they're paying down debt and re-financing what's left at much better terms.
    DSOs were steady in the low 50s and Free Cash Flow in Q4 alone was nearly $13 million.
    Smart money is buying this today because idiots reacted to headlines, not the real substance of the earnings and guidance.

    ZB

  • This is completely insane. Q4 earnings and Q1 guidance were both well ahead of expectations. Q4 was $0.89 versus a $0.72 estimate.

    Current Q1 EPS est is $0.73; company guided (including Arlon) to around $0.85.

    Oh well, sell away, losers. We'll see you at the finish line. Oh wait, we won't, 'cause you'll be way behind.

    ZB

  • Reply to

    This is sinking

    by fdkp5354 Nov 7, 2014 11:28 AM
    zippybalto zippybalto Nov 7, 2014 11:38 AM Flag

    I'm quoting from a major research firm after RDNT reported on Wednesday:
    "2014 rev and EBITDA guidance raised on strong performance, and we believe RDNT has the ability to top guidance if volume trajectory continues. Reiterate Buy rating and raising PT to $11.50 (from $9.50) on 7x EV/EBITDA + $1 NOL value on strong outlook."
    Given that backdrop, I can only assume that some hedge fund is selling indiscriminately today to fund redemptions because elsewhere in their portfolio they were long gold or something else equally stupid. RadNet's third quarter was OUTRAGEOUSLY good and the outlook equally so. I guess we just have to wait until the hedge fund idiot is done selling. Nice opportunity for longs to top up before the move to over $10

    ZB

  • Just to be clear, EPAM just put up a solid beat and raise quarter. Q4 EPS guidance was well above consensus. If the stock is down, it's almost certainly because some hedge fund idiot is liquidating their position because of trouble in some POS like Herbalife or Twitter.

    Grab more EPAM shares while you can!

    ZB

  • From the news release they put out this morning:
    "Based on continued strong customer demand in both the Company's LCD driver IC and memory segments, the Company now expects revenue and gross margin on a consolidated basis for the third quarter of 2014 will be at the high end of the Company's original guidance. On August 12, 2014, the Company provided guidance that it expected revenue of third quarter of 2014 to increase in the range of approximately 3% to 7% as compared to the second quarter of 2014, with gross margin on a consolidated basis to be in the range of approximately 23% to 26% for the third quarter of 2014."

    Awesome! Seems likely that the smart money will accumulate this into the earnings announcement.

    ZB

  • From their press release on Sept 9:
    "The Company currently expects third quarter revenue to range between $230 million and $238 million, or up 3.0 percent to 6.6 percent sequentially, compared to its original guidance of between $228 million and $238 million, or up 2.1 percent to 6.6 percent sequentially. Diodes is increasing its gross profit margin guidance to be 32.0 percent, plus or minus 1 percent, compared to its original guidance of 31.8 percent, plus or minus 2 percent. Diodes is maintaining its guidance for operating expenses to be approximately 21.0 percent of revenue, plus or minus 1 percent, income tax rate to be 22 percent, plus or minus 3 percent and shares used to calculate GAAP earnings per share to be approximately 48.8 million."

    The Gross Margin guidance is especially powerful, since it suggests there's neither any pricing pressure (from over-ordering) or competitive pressure. DIOD just kicking #$%$ as usual.

    ZB

  • Reply to

    AZPN Share Price Craters

    by azpn_wizardy Aug 14, 2014 9:06 PM
    zippybalto zippybalto Aug 15, 2014 1:09 AM Flag

    Uh, no.
    The decade-past actions of an ex-CEO, ex-CFO and ex-Co-Founder have nothing to do with Aspen today.
    Your bizarre, ham-fisted attempt to throw dirt on Aspen is transparent and stupid.
    There are plenty of issues that surround Aspen and could be reasonably blamed for today's 5% pullback the shares.
    We can debate whether TLCV has meaning or not, but it fairly represents a particular aspect of Aspen's business; namely, its effective backlog. But the number is so dependent on assumptions made by management that its usefulness isn't as strong as, say, free cash flow or gross margin levels or headcount.
    Aspen certainly isn't shifting the focus from quarterly and annual revenue; they prominently announced both in the earnings release along with every other metric.
    The bottom line is...your lame attempts to cloud the truth around Aspen only serve to show that YOU are not the "smart money." Nothing more.
    ZB

  • Reply to

    Any thought on why it is down

    by itwillgoup Aug 14, 2014 10:36 AM
    zippybalto zippybalto Aug 14, 2014 1:22 PM Flag

    I read the entire conference call transcript and nobody, least of all Brendan Barnicle, raised an issue with TLCV. Yes it's decelerating, but this is largely an accounting issue, not a cash issue. The real growth of the company has always been around 10-12% because that's the capital spending growth of their customer base. Revenue growth only "accelerated" because AZPN transitioned its revenue recognition policies. Every institution and analyst knew this was coming.
    Here's where the rubber meets the road: Free Cash Flow guidance for the forthcoming fiscal year was RAISED from $190m - $195m to $215m. And when the company said cash flow growth would decelerate after that, sooner than expected, it's ONLY because they're about to exhaust a tax NOL that has been shielding their profits for years. This is a high class problem: generating more cash, sooner than expected.
    And how's the competitive situation? Non-existent; the company raised operating margin guidance from 38% to 40%. They're not losing business to anyone.
    Hey, it's a market of conflicting opinions. But there was NOTHING in yesterday's earnings announcement and conference call that revealed a truly new and negative fact about AspenTech. The only negativity was around the optics of what looks like decelerating growth but which is, in fact, merely an artifact of accounting, not a real slowdown in the outlook or opportunity.

    I don't know if AZPN has a stock-buyback in place, but I do know they've got $300m in cash with another $200m+ coming in over the next year...

    ZB

  • Reply to

    Any thought on why it is down

    by itwillgoup Aug 14, 2014 10:36 AM
    zippybalto zippybalto Aug 14, 2014 12:24 PM Flag

    Maybe but I doubt it: A big portion of AZPN's revenue is recognized on a subscription basis, which tends to flatten revenue recognition, pushing it out from where it would otherwise be. But this isn't new, and algorithms would just cross-check this against the cash flow to make sure nothing was amiss. And AZPN's Q4 (June) cash flow was bodacious.
    And the stock has basically been flat for the last three months, so the price action into the print wasn't exactly discounting some huge beat-and-raise that never came; the price action was basically "meh." And they beat-and-raised anyway.
    My $0.02 is that institutions with big equity AND option positions are moving the stock lower to put option positions into the money, which they will then close and lay on new, bullish option positions at the lower price.

    ZB

  • Reply to

    Earnings - Quick Analysis

    by jpmarketer Aug 7, 2014 4:19 PM
    zippybalto zippybalto Aug 7, 2014 8:56 PM Flag

    I basically agree with your analysis. I'm long the stock.

    But to me the relevant thing is the full year GAAP EPS guidance ($0.47 - $0.55) which was raised from prior guidance of $0.40 - $0.50 given last quarter. The new range is also clearly above the $0.46 consensus. This means full year EPS ests are almost certainly going up and this will be caught by all the hedge funds who look look at estimate trends.

    Of course, ENOC management has developed a habit of being all po-faced on their conference calls with pessimistic commentary, so we'll just have to wait until tomorrow to see where it shakes out.

    This stock was at $24/share just four months ago. Technically, it just withstood a Death Cross in early July when the 50 day went down through the 200. Stock is actually up a little since then. If management doesn't screw things up with their commentary, it's not unreasonable to think the stock could ride some mo back into the low $20s over the next few months.

    ZB

  • zippybalto zippybalto Aug 6, 2014 9:44 AM Flag

    Hello America! Wake the **** up! SMCI just put up a huge, clean, "beat-and-raise" quarter.
    Smart institutions are grabbing this up hand-over-fist while the market makers ream the public.
    OK, just thought you'd like to know.
    That is all. Resume normal service.

    ZB

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