They "missed" by about $.19 for the quarter. But, I don't recall them guiding to any specific number. In fact, it seems to me that they don't provide enough information to make a decent estimate, or even to explain where they came up short (of estimates that aren't much more than SWAGs). Looking at the release, they appear to have significant unexplained costs that kept earnings from reaching what I would have expected, given the solid increase in revenue. Somebody on this board said that there was a one-time expense of $20 million for flu prevention measures. But, I can't see where they identified that, although it sounds reasonable.
Looking forward, there should be a couple of quarters of even higher earnings, and then I expect a slow return to normal....slow because it will take quite a while to rebuild flocks and because prices for almost anything seem to come down a lot slower than they go up. Then, when we get back to "normal" egg prices, CALM should have put their new cash to work to generate more profits. Considering all this, it seems like the drop (12% as of now) is way overdone.
nadsmis,.....I'm with vjpj on this one. Like him, I've owned it for about 20 years and have enjoyed collecting the dividends and watching it slowly grow. You need to look at the longer term picture. Add up the dividends over the past 10 years or so and figure out the rate of return when combined with price appreciation. It's been a very good holding and doesn't carry as much risk as most other equity investments. Short term fluctuations will happen, but are pretty tough to predict.
I strongly agree with the importance of the avoided colonoscopies. Great savings in lost time, discomfort, and unnecessary risk.
Maybe I'm oversimplifying, but using your numbers and an average cost to the insurance company for a colonoscopy of $1,700 and average cost for CG of $500, the cost to find the 6 cancers using colonoscopy alone would be $170,000 and the cost to find the same 6 using the 100 CG tests and 19 colonoscopies would be $82,300.
This board has been one that I've enjoyed following, and I feel that I've learned from it. But it seems to be going downhill, with more insults and less information and useful debate. I'm long this stock because I've had a colonoscopy and don't intend to have another unless I get a positive indication from a CG test. But, I still appreciate the posts of folks like biostigg if for no other reason than the good information provided in responses. Let's have less name calling and insults and more good discussion.
They're maintaining the dividend at $.17.....In the current low oil price environment, I think that's all we can expect. In fact, if they're not doing it with borrowed money, that's great.
It looks to me like a fair value would be in the low to mid 50s. I get this by looking at the 200 day moving average and adding about $10 to account for the excess earnings over the next couple of years because of the bird flu. Some of the excess will be in the shareholders pocket and some will be invested in the business to create more earnings power.
The "miss" is more a reflection of the performance of the analysts than it is of the performance of the company. In this case, the one high estimate of $1.22 was enough off to account for the entire "miss". Because egg prices didn't rise until late in the quarter and there is a lag for it to be reflected in some accounts, the impact wasn't very much in this quarter. Future quarters will show much more of an impact.
Their press release said that they would release earnings on Monday, July 20. They may reach 60 before then. Positive article in Barrons today. I don't look for earnings to reflect much of the price increase yet. But, I hope for some positive comments on upcoming quarters.
They're planning to release earnings for their 4th quarter on July 20. That's a week earlier than they have historically done it. Must have good news that they would like to get out.
I googled Favus Institutional Research and looked at a couple of their previous Sell recommendations... One was QCOR on April 8, 2013. It's more than tripled since then. The other was Gilead Sciences on 2/5/14. It's up by more than 50% since then. I guess that people pay Favus for this research....dearly.
I listened to the interview and agree that Maneesh did a great job. He sounded competent, enthused, and confident. Just what you want .
During my annual physical last month I asked my Dr if he was familiar with cologuard. He had heard of it, but was not paying attention to it until the USPTF acted favorably. Because of the many things that need to be watched by a GP, he has only a few sources that he can keep up with and relies on for guidance. USPTF actions were at the top of his list to monitor.
As of May 15, short interest has risen to 8.167 million shares. Some folks have a lot of tolerance for pain. Even without the bird flu impact, long term prospects are good as egg consumption will rise in response to recent thinking regarding health effects. Market price increases due to the flu will tend to be sticky for some time after the disease has run its course.
The rise was kind of quick, but I think that there's more room to move. I first bought this stock when the nutrition folks decided that eggs were good for you after all. As that kind of thinking gets generally accepted, consumption is likely to rise. Future growth prospects more than justify the current level. PE is only about 16.
Earnings released this morning look very good. The company is making great progress in turning their investments into cash generating assets. Buyback is impressive, and justified since current price is low compared to NAV and future earnings capability. Dividend increases will come in due time. I just hope that they recognize when the home market gets to the point where it's better to return cash to the shareholders instead of investing in more properties.
The Nasdaq site shows short interest increasing from about 6 million shares on 3/31 to 7.6 million shares on 4/15. This must be because the shorts think that the bird flu epidemic will negatively impact CALM. They should have done their homework.
Stock is down more than 2% this a.m......My guess is that, other than a little due to the market's negative open, most of the move is in reaction to reports of more bird flu. CNBC, in particular, because they listed CALM as one of several companies potentially affected. There was no mention of the fact that CALM has not had any incidents (at least not yet).