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Astex Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

zoomie2134 237 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 25, 2008 9:56 AM Member since: Apr 23, 2007
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  • zoomie2134 zoomie2134 Sep 25, 2008 9:56 AM Flag

    Hint.... Based on your assumptions it is $425 not $425,000 per person. Don't know of many mortgages you can pay with $425.

  • zoomie2134 zoomie2134 Sep 25, 2008 9:52 AM Flag

    Try again. Your math is a little weak.

  • Reply to

    EORTC and Baking a Cake

    by batzem Jun 25, 2008 9:41 PM
    zoomie2134 zoomie2134 Jun 26, 2008 6:17 PM Flag

    Little problem Rory. Do a little research next time. Revlimid is only approved for minus 5Q MDS and low-risk, I beleive.

    June 2, 2008

    NEW YORK (AP) -- Celgene Corp. said Monday it withdrew an application from European authorities to approve its drug Revlimid to treat a cancer affecting blood and bone marrow.
    The company said it is pulling the application, for transfusion-dependent anemia patients with myelodysplastic syndromes, because a European Medicines Agency panel determined that data from a single mid-stage study does not demonstrate that the benefits of the drug outweigh the risks. The committee recommended against approval.

    Celgene, however, said it plans to continue to seek approval for the indication in Europe.

    Revlimid is approved for this use in the United States, Canada and Argentina.

  • Reply to

    Sacrifice fly

    by lltinvest Jun 22, 2008 9:58 AM
    zoomie2134 zoomie2134 Jun 23, 2008 6:54 PM Flag

    My 2 cents. It all depends on the strategic direction the board and management are heading. If the goal is to get the maximum in an acquisition, then you do NOT partner out any of the pipeline. You wait for EORTC results, and if necessary sell Dacogen rights and partner S110 with Easai or JNJ (possibly the same type of deal cash and some royalties). If you are "high on" CLIMB and want to become a drug discovery company and eventually a pharmaceutical company, then you partner out one of the upcoming drugs. The problem is they need to file an IND for SGI-1776 soon and begin at least one Phase II for MP-470 (probably some combination w/ a carboplatin or something). My biggest problem with the CEO he has made artifical timelines during analyst presentations or conference calls and has not made good on them. If you tell an analyst you will file in the first half of 08, then to be credible in the future you better make sure you file in the first half of 08. It is all about credibility.

  • Reply to

    Sacrifice fly

    by lltinvest Jun 22, 2008 9:58 AM
    zoomie2134 zoomie2134 Jun 23, 2008 9:43 AM Flag

    Vidaza has not yet received EU approval. They have submitted the marketing authorization application but it is still under review. If I shared your outlook, I sure as heck would not own Supergen. I beleive EORTC will be a huge upside to Supergen. First and foremeost it brings JNJ in the mix. And if it is significant (does not need to be the same as Vidaza since the trial had some obvious flaws) it could provide a tremendous boost to future sales. But it also brings S-110 to the forefront. And there is now way teh Dacogen franchise is going to be split between three companies for long. Does not make sense.

  • Reply to

    Snippet from GS CELG Note

    by alphaomega8294 Jun 11, 2008 5:26 PM
    zoomie2134 zoomie2134 Jun 11, 2008 5:55 PM Flag

    I asked this of Tim over 4 months ago when MGI filed the EU marketing app. Here was his reply..

    You do have the correct Article in question but in this case our situation is NOT referenced. The covalent linking of a ribose vs a de-oxy ribose sugar changes the primary target, absorption, stability. Dacogen does not incorporate into RNA in any way, but 90% of Vidaza incorporates into RNA. A small portion of Vidaza is converted into a de-oxy ribose form and incorporated into DNA where Hypomethylation can occur. Additionally this only one of the known mechanisms which does not
    explain all of either drugs activity.

    The first section of EU orphan drug status mentions one of the criteria is that the drugs must act in a similar manner. I would think, if Dacogen shows a survival advantage, that JNJ would show that the drugs act through different mechanisms (Dacogen DNA and Vidaza RNA). Plus there was a study which showed Dacogen effectiveness against people who did not respond to Vidaza (granted it was small population < 20 patients) but it did show that patients did respond to Dacogen.

    Again, all this is moot. I thought for sure EORTC data would be done by 13th Congress of EHA. Guess not. If Dacogne does not show a significant survival advantage and EU application does not materialize, then I would have some serious questions to ask of SUPG management. It is my understanding the study did a evaluation at the mid-enrollment point, and SUPG should have got a clue on the survival data. If they thought that it may not be significant they should have pushed extremely hard for partnerships on upcoming INDs (MP-470, MP-529, etc.) It seems, at least to me, they have been in a wait and see mode. Again, don't know what is going on in Dublin, but no actions or additional filings. Kinda frustrating, but anyway what are you to do. Lack of data from the EORTC Survival study is pushing us down like a lead of bricks. No buyers. Everyone waiting until release.

  • Reply to

    Heavy volume for puts...

    by roryrae Jun 3, 2008 2:17 PM
    zoomie2134 zoomie2134 Jun 3, 2008 2:28 PM Flag

    I stand corrected just saw the 500 buy go through for the Jul 2.5 puts.

  • Reply to

    Heavy volume for puts...

    by roryrae Jun 3, 2008 2:17 PM
    zoomie2134 zoomie2134 Jun 3, 2008 2:23 PM Flag

    I have no idea what you are looking at but more activity is definitely on the call side today. Where do you get 691? Are you sure you are looking at volume? Could it be open interest? You do realize there is a big difference. Either way I do not see that number for any of the puts. What month and strike price are you looking at?

  • Reply to

    Citi EORTC "Flash" based on ADOPT data

    by alphaomega8294 Jun 2, 2008 11:32 PM
    zoomie2134 zoomie2134 Jun 3, 2008 7:23 AM Flag

    Concerning the Febrile Neutropenia.

    In the Vidaza application to the EMEA they disclosed that 16.4% of the patients had febrile Neutropenia as 16.4% which is greater than the 14% experienced in the ADOPT trial. The ADOPT trial is a huge success for Dacogen. Remember when Dacogen was approved the febrile Neutropenia was experienced in 23% of the patients.

    Plus, there is no way the median cycles is 3.

    http://www.bio-medicine.org/biology-technology-1/EMEA-Accepts-for-Review-Vidaza-28R-29-Marketing-Authorization-Application-for-Higher-Risk-Myelodysplastic-Syndromes-3099-4/

  • Reply to

    Celg

    by freetoquestionu May 7, 2008 9:57 AM
    zoomie2134 zoomie2134 May 7, 2008 10:09 AM Flag

    I think their earnings call is tomorrow before market opens. Could be just some profit taking before earnings.

  • Reply to

    BVF disposed 100,000 shares

    by roryrae May 5, 2008 6:07 PM
    zoomie2134 zoomie2134 May 6, 2008 10:11 AM Flag

    Refer to the Form 3 filed on 20 mar 08 by BVF. It breaks down their ownership of direct and indirect shares. They own over 10% of the company. Link provided.

    http://yahoo.brand.edgar-online.com/Default.aspx?companyid=8123

  • Reply to

    BVF disposed 100,000 shares

    by roryrae May 5, 2008 6:07 PM
    zoomie2134 zoomie2134 May 6, 2008 10:03 AM Flag

    In a SEC filing for 11 Mar 08 it was disclosed BVF Partners owns 9,308,900 shares.

  • Reply to

    BVF disposed 100,000 shares

    by roryrae May 5, 2008 6:07 PM
    zoomie2134 zoomie2134 May 5, 2008 9:44 PM Flag

    It represents 1% of their holdings. I think if they found better investment opportunities they would not keep the 99% still in SUPG. Are you really sweating about 1%?

  • zoomie2134 by zoomie2134 May 4, 2008 9:34 PM Flag

    I prephase with the assumption that Dacogen shows similar survival results as Vidaza. I think this is the most likely result.

    How does the short-term Dacogen franchise pan out? You have 3 entities dividing the Dacogen revenues. That will not last. Does Esai eventually buy JNJ-Cilag's rights to Dacogen worldwide sales? I think Esai is the one entity really commited to Dacogen. I don't think they can justify a 3 Billion dollar acquisition on Aloxi, which is competing against generics, and an average pipeline. Mehro, do you know the breakdown of royalties in the MGI and JNJ-Cilag deal for Dacogen rights? I think you said you were a longtime investor in MGI.

    Plus, you have the second generation (S-110) probably entering trials right after EORTC results. If SUPG takes this alone, the Dacogen franchise will now be limited to 2-3 years as far as Esai and JNJ are concerned. I would think S-110 would make Dacogen relatively obsolete. I would think that Esai management would be in a bit of pressure to insure they had some part in the next generation of decitabine. Also, if Esai does take an oral form of decitabine to market is Supergen still paid royalties? I will try to comb through my notes and filings, to answer this last one. Any thoughts? One thing will be for certain, for the first time in a long time Supergen will be negotiating at a position of strength. This could bode very well for the shareholders. Again, EORTC holds the key.

    I have said all along with no sales force and limited capital/debt. I think Supergen will eventually be acquired. Because of this I don't think you see any partnerships on any of the other drugs until the Dacogen questions are answered. The last thing you want is your pipeline fractioned out in partnerships when you are looking for potential suitors. Plus, I think SUPG wants to get MP-470 to at least Phase 2 where they can show potential and eventually derive how big the market will be for MP-470.

  • Reply to

    Valuing SuperGen

    by alphaomega8294 May 3, 2008 10:22 AM
    zoomie2134 zoomie2134 May 4, 2008 6:35 PM Flag

    I don't know why I am posting, but anyway. EORTC will have a huge impact on share price. It is a trigger event. It triggers JNJ and EU approval (which will, conservative estimates double sales, and JNJ can begin selling it now before approval, ala Vidaza, since there is no approved drug in EU). It will increase institutional investors who are unsure of a negative outcome and how it will effect revenues. A positive survival study will bring S-110 to the forefront. It will force "the street" to take a look at the pipeline, because SUPG will have the revenues to take some to market. Right now every analyst report I have read has said a negative EORTC study will basically be the end of Dacogen sales in the U.S. and worldwide. Some give estimates of royalties for 2008 at less than $20 million. I believe once this issue is resolved and Dacogen is on equal terms with Vidaza in "the streets" eyes (based on IMS data it appears Dacogen is viewed as an equal to Vidaza with Doctors) you will see analysts reassessing the Dacogen franchise. They will also look closely at the SUPG pipeline. Finally, SUPG will hold all rights to S-110 which will be a big carrot for Esai and JNJ if they want to stay in the demethylating market. I admit, I was wrong with ADOPT. I was under the impression that more survival data would be available. Was not the case. Anyway, should find out before the EU hematology congress meets in the beginning of June. Have tried to access abstracts on website but can't. All assumptions based on positive outcome. Negative outcome or survival rates superior to Vidaza, reassess accordingly.

  • Reply to

    Food for thought

    by lltinvest Apr 29, 2008 7:33 PM
    zoomie2134 zoomie2134 Apr 30, 2008 12:44 AM Flag

    lltinvest,

    I know you have your personal "Fire Manuso" campaign. But if you are going to post figures, please insure accuracy. The performance based options are the value of those vested since he has been with the company (2001). They are not those granted this year. And if you look at the performance based options, only a handful are at the exercise price. If you read the 14A his incentive options are fair and require significant events to be exercisable.

  • Reply to

    Analyst Reports on EORTC

    by mouseag1999 Apr 27, 2008 10:45 PM
    zoomie2134 zoomie2134 Apr 28, 2008 1:40 AM Flag

    Exert from another analyst report (SIG)

    Anecdotal evidence makes us re-evaluate our thesis. We have heard anecdotally that two centers have enrolled more than 50% of
    patients and have treated those patients with more than six cycles of therapy, and at least one PI who treated more than 30 patients
    indicated that he used 4+ cycles. In addition, although the EORTC trial has been ongoing since 2002, we have been hearing that the
    majority of the study enrolled in the last couple of years led by sub-licensee JNJ, which received ex-U.S. rights in 3Q06. As such,
    increased physician education and comfort regarding myelosuppression observed with hypomethylating agents may lead to low drop out
    rates. Taken together, we believe increased cycles and the maintenance of patients on therapy would bode well for the EORTC study,
    and may potential offset any negative effects of powering or dose/schedule. Neutral Factor
    • Eisai management expresses its confident. Obviously, Eisai management is confident in a favorable EORTC outcome. In fact, the
    company indicated that it has “intensely monitored study enrollment and how many cycles” patients were given, and indicated that “the
    majority of patients went through quite a number of cycles.” In addition, management is preparing to transfer the trial data to the FDA
    once released, and intends to double the sales force behind the brand. Neutral Factor

    That would give a median cycle of 6, possibly more. Either way the upside is tremendous with positive EORTC data. Plus JNJ in Europe trumps CELG.

  • Reply to

    Analyst Reports on EORTC

    by mouseag1999 Apr 27, 2008 10:45 PM
    zoomie2134 zoomie2134 Apr 28, 2008 1:33 AM Flag

    Exert from another analyst report (SIG)

    Anecdotal evidence makes us re-evaluate our thesis. We have heard anecdotally that two centers have enrolled more than 50% of
    patients and have treated those patients with more than six cycles of therapy, and at least one PI who treated more than 30 patients
    indicated that he used 4+ cycles. In addition, although the EORTC trial has been ongoing since 2002, we have been hearing that the
    majority of the study enrolled in the last couple of years led by sub-licensee JNJ, which received ex-U.S. rights in 3Q06. As such,
    increased physician education and comfort regarding myelosuppression observed with hypomethylating agents may lead to low drop out
    rates. Taken together, we believe increased cycles and the maintenance of patients on therapy would bode well for the EORTC study,
    and may potential offset any negative effects of powering or dose/schedule. Neutral Factor
    • Eisai management expresses its confident. Obviously, Eisai management is confident in a favorable EORTC outcome. In fact, the
    company indicated that it has “intensely monitored study enrollment and how many cycles” patients were given, and indicated that “the
    majority of patients went through quite a number of cycles.” In addition, management is preparing to transfer the trial data to the FDA
    once released, and intends to double the sales force behind the brand. Neutral Factor

    That would give a median cycle of 6, possibly more. Either way the upside is tremendous with positive EORTC data. Plus JNJ in Europe trumps CELG.

  • zoomie2134 by zoomie2134 Apr 21, 2008 2:15 PM Flag

    I am glad that the selling of covered calls isworking for some of you. But let me offer some advice, for what it is worth. To sell the right to trade your shares of SUPG for 15 cents, may not be wise. You say their is no downside. There is a big downside. YOU NO LONGER CONTROL THOSE SHARES. Let's say SUPG goes up .80 to 1.00 on no news (which has happened before). It may be a good time to take some profit and buy again at a lower price. You will be unable to trade those shares. There are numerous scenarios I can go through in which control of your shares is worth more than 15-30 cents. Just my opinion. Good luck.

  • Reply to

    14.80 by end of day

    by bull.dog45 Apr 8, 2008 2:06 PM
    zoomie2134 zoomie2134 Apr 8, 2008 4:32 PM Flag

    That is such an obvious lie. YOU HAVE ABSOLUTELY NO CREDIBILITY

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