one surgery and one IORT while at surgery .. Done ... can't beat that easily Maybe some would prefer 4 weeks of radiation to get extra % assurance, but those radiation have other side effects
Trends change. Next few weeks, you have tax loss selling which (I think) keeps prices in check. There seems to be large amount of buying interest though, offseting the sell pressure.
to get to $1M sales, you need 300 test !! ..split it among 20 sales guys and each needs to sell 15 tests a year !! .. that is a joke .. thye need to fire the sales VP... These sale guys should sell at least than 1,000 tests a year for $70M annual sales
step 1 .. Contact all oncologists and ask them if they have any patients with unknown cancer origin
step2 .. if there are patients in step1, offer them the test
step3 .. go to step 1 every month
Soon, oncologists will call you
market worldwide is huge . this stock should be $300 not $3
great discussion ... I think stock is very cheap here .. they have about 12M shares will warrants and every thing else ... Moh's surgery means peeling skin layer by layer, then you have to heal, make sure wound does not become infected and then you need to wait a year for scar to lessen, but it will not go away so you need to graft (another surgery) .. Xoft is a good alternative ... Icad now makes about $1000 on every patient treated
Then you have got breast IORT. That is a great model for early stage and very cost effective. Will be the gold standard in china, india, and many international countries. Growing in US
The you have got the 2D to 3D wave and
Colon Cad is big (don't know how big) if/when get remiburs for it
and company is close to breakeven now .. all growth is drop to bottom line
So, very chaep here .. last I talked like this stock dropped, so may drop again tomorrow, !!
Even the video they have on their website is from a guy who happened to find it on facebook waking up 1:00 am
Q1 - What type of sales approach they have been using since 201 that has failed so miserably.
Q2- And why would it be different now? what are they doing different now?
wow .. someone responded
I was looking at long term viability
No question in my mind that most people prefer non-invasive (10 min a day, 6 to 8 treatments) than Mohs surgery to cut your skin layer by layer (yikes) and then you have to make sure it does no infect until it heals. And then it scars (if it is in your face). I heard some do graft surgery to make the scar g oaway (another surgery)
But Mohs cost $1,500, Xoft for skin about $8k. So, CMS reimburs may be there for another 2 years but then will be reduced or go away (I think)
question is if this biz can survive if docs can get $2k per treatment. I think they can do up to 500 if they get good at it. So, about $1M revenue at $2k per patient. So, down the road, I think it is still viable and procedure is superior to Moh's Surgery
There is tons and tons of potential for this company that I can't get my hands on them all.
what is market for Colon CAD
What is 2D to 3D and thomost market
what is breast IORT market for international
What is the market in North America
$8,000 per patient. Each center can treat up to 10,000 patients a year. That is $80M a year revenue for ivestment of $100k a year and $250k upfront.
CMS can cut reimbursment from $8k to $1k and they still can make $10M a year. And If they treat only 1,000 patients, they still make a million
Lots of room to lower coverage. But still needs much wider adoption. Wish I was a dermat and would partner with an oncologist.
CMS will lower rates once adoption becomes significant.
by a site performing these
Patients who are not interested in having surgery
Patients who are not surgical candidates for medical reasons
(e.g. blood thinners)
Patients concerned about scarring or distortion from surgery
Patients who require additional treatment for aggressive skin cancers following surgical treatment
Patients with positive margins after excision to reduce the risk of recurrence
Mohs surgery costs about $1,500 .. Xoft costs $8,000
CMS will not cover such high costs forever
However, many who have money will still opt for this due to superior cosmetic (like plastic surgery)
2011 12 units
2012 24 units (backed out VET units)
2013 40 units (I estimated Q4 sames as Q3)
Each unit has about $100k of recurring source + service revenue
I think they are now at 0.25% market penetration
Just do a google on IORT and breast ans limit search time to past 30 days and you can see there is a lot of chatter on this
So, 10% US market is $75M revenue. Worldwide another $75M for a total of $150M revenue .. Gross margin of 60% and you have $90M gross profit. $25M for R&D, SG&A and all other, you get a profit of
$65M or about $6 a share !!!!!
price target of $180 !!
and I have not talked about skin treatment, colon cad, 2d to 3d transition
Thid is cheap, very cheap and due to my post, it will become cheaper !!!
here is copy / past of conclusion section
Conclusions: The take home message from the TARGIT and ELIOT trials is that IORT appears to be as safe and effective as standard for post-menopausal women with low to intermediate grade, lymph node negative invasive ductal carcinoma lacking high-risk features. This assessment aligns with the partial breast radiotherapy patient selection guidelines already established by American Society of Therapeutic Radiation Oncology, the American Society of Breast Surgeons and American Brachytherapy Society. As the proportion of early-stage breast cancers continue to rise, the population of women meeting criteria for IORT and other forms of partial breast radiotherapy will grow steadily in coming years.
The TARGIT Trial emphasizes the importance of pre-operative and post-operative patient selection based on core biopsy and surgical pathology findings. The TARGIT Trial’s pragmatic approach mirrored community practice standards by permitting the radiotherapy treatment plan to be modified for the minority of women found to have high-risk findings in their surgical specimens. The delivery of IORT at the time of initial lumpectomy did not eliminate the option of additional radiotherapy if deemed necessary.
The lack of longer-term (e.g., 10-year) outcome data for the TARGIT and ELIOT trials is a limitation that can only be overcome with the passage of time and continued close follow-up. Future breast and axillary node recurrences will undoubtedly occur among both IORT and standard radiotherapy recipients, but there is little evidence to suggest that the rate of breast and/or axillary recurrences should differ dramatically between properly selected groups of women receiving standard breast radiotherapy or IORT at the time of initial lumpectomy. If a statistically significant difference were to emerge in favor of standard radiotherapy, the well-informed patient would be empowered to balance the potential risk of higher breast cancer recurrenc
tanked .. so, my power of posts is negative !!!
Any ways, ICAD is selling only 3 controllers a quarter for the breast IORT. I just read an article from a head surgeon on LA (dated a few weeks ago) that said based on the 5 year data that came out, he thinks this thing that ICAD sells will be the way to go as you have more and more early detection .. He did not even consider cost as the first criteria .. Now, I am thinking, worldwide they are selling 3 devices a quarter and a head surgeon saying this will be the way to go going forward (easier on patient, cheaper) .. so, china, india, japan, europe, USA and we are selling 3 a quarter ..
Breast IORT is huge !!!
Going from 2d to 3d detection huge !!
Colonoscopy alternative huge !!
removing skin cancer
ok! ..maybe this post will drop it below $9
But it has so much going for it ..