results were outstanding. Also, they are now spending about $15M a year on sales and marketing. CEO hinted of winning new customers. If they land in a big one, this could double in a day. The guidance for 2015 excludes charter revenue and does not include any potential win.
Initial target price is $7.5
per sec, they are targeting 70 centers in us and 100 in europe .. now they have about 25 total
In the United States and Canada, we currently have 10 centers that are actively implanting and/or recruiting patients to schedule their Argus
II retinal prosthesis surgeries. Additionally, we have 14 other centers that have been selected as potential implanting centers and that are
somewhere in the process of getting ready to implant their first patients. We expect that of these 14 additional centers, two will be ready to
implant in 2014. We intend to continue seeking and recruiting more centers to open additional other active centers in 2015. We anticipate
opening other new centers in subsequent years. We believe that we will be able to serve the domestic RP market by having about 70-80
implanting centers across the US.
In Europe and the Middle East, we currently have 11 centers that actively are implanting and/or recruiting patients to schedule their Argus II
retinal prosthesis surgeries (six in Germany, three in France, one in Saudi Arabia, and one in Italy ). Additionally, we have 15 other centers that
are either preparing to implant patients or are in the qualification process. Of these 15, we expect that about five additional centers will become
active in 2014. We intend to continue recruiting additional centers in 2014 to yield further active centers in 2015. We anticipate that annual new
center recruitment, in subsequent years will prove to be an important driver of our implant and revenue growth in foreign markets. We believe
that we will be able to serve the European markets for RP by having about 100-120 centers across Europe.
ant stock they sell is less money they will make .. If this is their strategy, it can go sol long. A heavy player will consume the shares quickly.
This stock is cheap,
Q2 2014 versus Q4 2014
Search $11M and $11M
Adver $7.5M and $14M
Service $5.7M to $6M
Total $24M to $31M
Charter made up 25% of $24M. Once they file SEC, we will find out the portion of $31M
The $100M revenue estimate in 2015 is healthy, conservative and next few years will see much growth in this area.
$7.5 is initial price target
Guidance includes loss of $25M revenue from charter
Guidance does not include any new customer wins or expanded biz from existing customers.
price target $7.5 this year (or 2 times sales)
1- Sling TV is now using cloud ID (maybe this is the dish that Hogan is talking about)
2- New partnership on the video solution to be announced next week (cloud id + nimble + video sol + partnership)
3- 50% are on the new start page experience
4- 30% of charter already lost in Q4
5- 2 board members own a total of 22% of company
6- Ad reve grew 35% quarter over quarter
7- search revenue grew a few % quarter over quarter
8- service revenue grew about 10% quarter over quarter (don't remember the exact number here)
11 cents !!! .. I would be delighted for a loss of 1 cents .. Do you even follow this company at all? or just say Sid is great since he charger $4000 for his newsletter
What matters is outlook. Remember, they are losing charter in 2015 which is 15% of revenue so if they guide EBITDA positive, it suggests they expect revenue growth somewhere offsetting the loss of revenue from charter
I think $7.5 this is fair price here
maybe a non-event ... the 10% owners said so in the letter before earnings ...
i think the investors like a more aggressive cut (bring R&D to 10% of revenue versus current 30%) and bring SG&A to 15% .. with cost of revenue at 55%, you get 20% profit of $20M before tax or about 74 cents EPS .. which can justify a much higher price
They do have a point. however, I hope the R&D they have spent is going to payoff
Hogan .. this is an interesting situation .. Before going further, Sid is a complete joke ... I would seriously doubt he has done much research .. I don't care if his letter is 4000 .. his work has no substance
Having said that, I think sync is a good pick because of its attractive valuation ...
the recent activist shareholder makes it interesting .. I don't necessarily trust the activist shareholders as they may want to control the company to either take it private at a lower than potential price or sell the company to one of their affiliates .. i don't know much about these guys and will do some due deligience to better understand their motives ..
My price target is $7.5 which is less than 2 times sales .. This price does not reflect potential of a big win (e.g. Dish as you speculated)
If the 10% owners get their way, we may be sold at less than $7.5 .. maybe around $5
The shareholder letter took the wind out of this earnings call and its release 2 days before the earnings call is a bit suspect
a start page tab for dish customers .. sort of like VZ trending tab makes sense .. as for live TV, i doubt it as they have a good program going with sling tv .. having said that, dish new tv guide looks very similar in feel to VZ .. but this one looks unlikely to me
this is so undervalued that you do not dish to get to $5 .. but with a deal as big as dish, it will trade north of $7.5 ..
Given the stock price action, I doubt dish rumor is true ... something like this can not be maintained as a secret and price action should have been above 3 by now
sorry, for Q4, below is the correct estimate projections
analyst A projects 3 cents LOSS
analyst B projects 1 cents LOSS
analyst C projects 7 cents PROFIT !!!
So, consensus is for 1 cent PROFIT (1 = (7 - 1 -3)/3 )
you can go to yahoo finance and see number of analyst and their EPS projections. For Q4,
analyst A projects 3 cents LOSS
analyst B projects 3 cents LOSS
analyst C projects 7 cents PROFIT !!!
So, consensus is for 1 cent PROFIT (1 = 7 - 3 -3)
So, if you did not have analyst C, consensus would be loss of 3 cents and they would beat it in March
In the 3rd quarter, Sync recorded $2.1M of one time charge (breakdown shown below).
cost reduction plan of $0.6 million,
bad debt of $0.2 million
$0.4 million costs associated with our transition to a new CEO
cost reduction plan of $0.5 million
repricing of stock options of $0.2 million
3-sales and marketing
cost reduction plan of $0.2 million
In Q4, they may not have this one time charge. Also, they will save an additional $1.6M saving due to restructuring for a total of $3.7M !!
Had it not been for the lone very optimist analyst, they could beat estimates big !!!
versus old start pages .. are they worse, about same or better
As far as I can tell, they have deployed it for toshiba, lenovo and verizon .. they are also beta testing it for myritter
Ayone know how ew can track if the new start pages gaining or losing traction o/ revenue
passed from the 180 patients ... With avg PFS of 8 months, we should have hit 146 in December last year
another 80 to 100 enrolled in 2014
do the math .. it has already exceed 4 months pfs, question is by how much
80 enrolled in 2013 (70% evented)
100 enrolled in 2012 or before (90% evented)
0.7 times 80 + 0.9 times 100 = .146
146 is events needed for triggering interim efficacy
But no interim yet ..
Plus about 80 to 100 enrolled in 2014 which adds to another 15 to 25 to the 146 events
But, no imteirm yet ..
i.e. dcvax-L is beating placebo by a good margin
any day you don't here interim from now on shows DCVAX-L performing even better
if you are investing, you want a long term slow appreciation ... what you say create hype and quick sell
sync already has a good size customer base integrate into their billings .. their revenue stream as of end of Q3 was
$10M in search
$10M in ad (video ad growing nicely)
$5M in services
We know video adv biz is growing very well (grew 25% QoQ and 70% YoY)
We also know the new start pages is doing better than older start pages
We know customers demand live tv (huge growth for the service biz)
I prefer to see, profitability and growth than buzz
45% gross margin
Trading at half of sales (3 to 4 times appreciation is where this belongs)