Recommend a halt? Or this would still go on
This came out Nov 2015 and in part might explain why approach from VICL or GNCA are not very effective .. they are good, but not good enough for HSV
It was generally assumed that an effective HSV-2 vaccine must stimulate the body to produce neutralizing antibodies—particularly against a viral surface protein called glycoprotein D (gD-2) that HSV-2 uses to enter human cells. A protein that triggers antibody production is called an antigen. For decades, researchers have focused on "subunit" herpes vaccines that rely primarily on gD-2 as the antigen to stimulate the body's antibody response––but none has prevented HSV-2 infection in humans.
"This suggests we've been stimulating production of the wrong type of antibodies," said co-study leader Betsy Herold, M.D., the Harold and Muriel Block Chair in Pediatrics at Einstein and chief of the division of pediatric infectious diseases at the Children's Hospital at Montefiore and Einstein. Dr. Herold is also professor of pediatrics, of microbiology & immunology, and of obstetrics & gynecology and women's health at Einstein.
Researchers at Albert Einstein College of Medicine, led by Drs. William Jacobs, Jr., and Betsy Herold, have designed a new type of vaccine that could be the first-ever for preventing genital herpes.
Betsy Herold, M.D.The Einstein team took a completely different approach in designing their "live" HSV-2 vaccine. Instead of using gD-2 to stimulate antibodies, they deleted the gene for gD-2 from the virus (and, consequently, the protein's expression on the viral surface) —a manipulation that weakens the virus, rendering it unable to infect cells or cause disease. They hypothesized that this altered virus would stimulate the body to produce different and more effective antibodies.
- See more at: http://www.einstein.yu.edu/news/releases/1076/experimental-herpes-vaccine-upends-traditional-approach-and-shows-promise/#sthash.QP4tAFnW.dpuf
But mitterndorf from MD Anderson does not look like a shady character to me .. And she says E75 is the best peptide and that it works .. Put this with data showing 100% DFS for all patients that were treated with high dose and had booster shots and then put this together with the point that 70th event has not occurred when the 400th patient was enrolled 22 month ago and they enrolled 760
And you can conclude that odd are pretty good that yoi will see 60 or more events from control ..,would they halt this ? What if it is 68 to 2,.. How could they not
And if that happens you could have a $20 stock in Msy
well , if this gets halted, it will shoot pass $10 ($2.5B Market cap) in a blink .. 2 to 3 times Herceptin sales potetnial .. i.e. $15 to $22B .. or $60 to $100 per share in sales per year !!!
Per SPA, fad can halt for compelling survival win .. And not compelling recurrence win
So, am not sure if OS is that different .. It would take another 1 or 2 years for those that had recurrence to die from cancer .. Sad to write it like this, as you are writing about human lives
Having said tha, Roche herceptin team knows very well what is going in and they maybe compelled To move soon to license or buy before another does .. Mid February and not reached 70th event speaks for itself
Just my guess .. They have not figured out full HSV antigens yet .. You need to see a 75% viral load reduction and not 40% .. Vaccine works but not very good yet and it may take another 5 years to figure the missing piece
On the contrary, CMV looks very good .. The fact that astellas did not in blind the 100 is, I think, bullish .. At this rate , they enroll about 80 a quarter .. So why not in mind to make sure they have the right end point and delay a quarter .. They have spent too much money not to do this little piece
If you look at phase 2, you see the treated T cell jump and untreated stays same or down immildiarely after day 0. .. So, while data is blinded, astellas can still look at these data and assume the ones that go up are treated and rest are not treated .. Then they see if they end up with a 50/50 split or not .. Then they track the T cell data and they probably saw very close to what was seen in phase 2 .. I think they need to have a high confidence that results are following phase 2, so as not to unblinded the first 109
Highly unlikely .. GNCA results are about same for lesion rates but quite a bit better for shedding .. You need to have the best or zero value to second best
CMV .. There is no one in vaccine and the antiviral threat was from Cmrx that , at best is delayed many years
Also, look at T cell response from phase 2, it is evident both placebo and control start from same place and then the lowest person from treated has a higher T cell that the highest T cell observed from placebo
I think their vaccine works and odds are better than 50% which should place this at above $1.5 prior to read out
I think they will also get an additional $10M upon enrollment completion , but that is just s guess
I think you should forget HSV
The anti fungal seems very promising but beyond 2017
They are both DEAD ...
Phase 3 CMV is what matters
If meets primary $3 in q4 2017
Otherwise stock is done ..
Brazil on Friday reported a nearly 50-percent jump in cases of dengue fever reported over a three-week period in January, a worrying finding because the disease is carried by the same mosquito that spreads Zika.
Asteelas been dumping money so vical scales up manufacturing capability of DNA vaccine for CMV
The fact that NIH has put its scientists to fight zika using DNA vaccine should tell you where vical is placed in
Has chosen the DNA vaccinecappraich .. They will then go out with RFP for large scale manufacturing
By the way, today's low 28 cents or $26M market cap
FMR must not be donkey brain .. Some donkey brain sold today
1- does their tech work ?
Yes, look at T cell response from CMV phase 2, HSV in stifel and comments from bill gates foundation
2- how is their cash burn .. Low
3- should they be valued 66% of cash value when they have no debt .. No
4- what markets are they targeting .. Billions of dollar
5- what is current MC .. $30M
6- what is a fair MC .. $200M
Please introduce yourselevs
i said ticket cost is $1
let me rephrase
Win you get $1
Cost of ticke is 23 cents