as most people are afraid of bubbles and inflation ... this is in contrast to 2009 time frame when they were under tremendous pressure to go to zero interest rates and keep printing money to stimulate economy
Fed probably wants a correction in stock to get pressure off their back
high volume, all gains disappear and some more ...
n April 2014, we met with Japan Pharmaceuticals and Medical Devices Agency ("PMDA") to discuss our registration program with blisibimod in patients with IgA nephropathy. In this meeting we gained the PMDA's agreement on the acceptability of proteinuria as the primary efficacy endpoint to support marketing approval in Japan and have amended the BRIGHT-SC study to meet the specific data requirements of the PMDA.
Since odds of positive efficacy is good and Japan has a large population at risk??
why would they spend $5M to buy a company?
Good results on IGA end of this year may push this stock up
Japan has 350,000 patient population and they have already agreed to the endpoint which we know the drug has a high chance of working ..
Canaccord = Latanprost mixed with their eye drop
so, you would expect/hope Canaccord be as good as Latanprost
Neverthless, it is very good to confirm that benefits of their compound when mixed with Latanprost provide more more benefits than Latanprost alone. Confirms that their compound has a different mechanism of action and its benefits are additive
I think srock hit a short term bottm (could be intermediate or long term bottom) today at low $18 .. Needs confirmation tomorrow. but this may be a good entry for a bounce to $25
than the 200mg placebo pool. How many patients were on 200mg placebo pool analysis
I am gurssing/hoping that patients with criteria of 200mg placebo pool have poorer response rate and this interim result will confirm about 40% response from ANTH drug versus 15% from placebo pool. Or at least I am giving it a 30% odds
10,000 shares long around $3.
I expect odds of positive ph3 interim results for Chablis1, to be 30% or higher. Market is not putting odds at 10% succcess.
The main problem I see is that Rhopressa, even thoug has a different mechanism of action, has same to slightly inferior performance to latanoprost which is now provided at cheap price throguh generics. What would be expected market penetration of Rhopressa?
Also, Roclatan is Rhopressa plus latanoprost . Patietns already combine these drugs to get a better peroformance.
So, I think many bought in %15 to $20 range on the expectation to sell after ph2 results which is what they did. Some bought in the $25 range that maybe selling now,
I do not have a position and may initiate in $10 to $12 range if it gets there. IF not, so be it
is not superior to existing latan ..
they could get 10% of global market for lower IOP patients (lower IPO are about 33% patients) .. i am lowering my sales estimate to half of $1.3B and shares outstanding to 30 million .. update price target is
0.7 * $600M * 8 / 30 million shares = $112
still not bad from $20 now ..
is $290 .. here is my back of envelop
0.7 * $1.3B * 8 / 25 million shares = $290 per share
- 70% chance of ph3 success, based on reported ph2 for Roclatan
- $1.3 annual sales of Roclatan world wide (drug is superior to Latanoprost which is now off patents)
- price over sales multiple of 8
- 25 million shares (2 million shares dilution in 2015)
$290 is when they get ph3 results ... you can discount it as you wish
1- Funding through mid 2016 .. so, my guess raise mid 2015 and probably no more than $50M
2- They say their drug is better than anything else on the market, but slides seem to indicate same perf as Latanoprost. Am not sure why this will be drug of choice
overall market is $5B worldwide and $2B in USA which is captured by
3- No other drug in phase 3 for approval, so theirs is first
ziopharm STS failure was in 2013 !!!
At $3.6, doubt any value is assigned to GBM .. Ex cash, is trading at $100M ... That is too low for stellar ph2 results and an ongoing ph3 with a high success probability
This is similar to nab-paclitaxel (Abraxane) for STS
one morning you wake up over the next few months
STS, OS data
Earnings in the 1st week or 2nd week of August .. can some one please call company and try to find out the date? ...
GBM is a wild card.
OS data from ph2 will show greater than 30% improvement in OS
Shipments of iron ore were up 25% in May over April
So, my question is why despite a 25% increased in shipment, shipping rates are falling?
GBM results .. anyone care to comment
looking to get long here