March is only 4 months away.
RVP has won $340M plus legal fees plus the some money BDX willing to pay so as to avoid the telling its customers for years they advertised falsely
so if you apply 60% tax rule, RVP will end up with $200M cash plus some money BDX willing to pay so as to avoid ...
Company w/o this is probably worth $60M .. So after settlement, will be worth north of $260M .. So, a high chance it will be a double or more in 4 months, this is why I think no one selling
i bought today at $3.4 ..
i followed this company fpr past couple of years
2 years ago they were losing lots of money and low on cash
last year they were losing $3M a quarter and low on cash
this year, they are making a little money and some cash and a few hit games
in 2 years, they will earn $1 a share per year and stock will be $15
But, I think odds are high now that king, or zynga or EA will take them out at $8. They need lots of resources to grow the KK type franchise quickly ... a big player can do it much faster
This is now $3.4 or about $370M with about $50M in cash ... So, selling a little over $300M ..
KK or superstar game is just the very beginning .. more stars and more games ... There is so much candy crush can go but it is still same game and they are doing an amazing job of that .. But superstars can easily be added with their fan base ... Their gross margins is 50% versus 70% for regular games but still pretty good.
This is a huge benefit that gluu has and no one else has it. They are the undisputed leader. They could have 10 games like KK each raking $100k on think gaming for a stable quarterly revenue ..
Racing rival has just begun and they need so much fixing the game, yet, the game is putting out good $. This franchise could triple
They have most experience with shooting and you have Deer hunter, dino, CK, Front line, ... from it
They have not begun even picking the low hanging fruits
Don't be surprised if King takes them out on the cheap here
don;t over welcome your short
got to give it to you on MM ... this guy sounds so incompetent and timid on the conference call ... fire this guy and put company for sale .. we need an activist shareholder here
that is funny .. KK is not the last superstar game .. this is a very scalable game ... They are experimenting with bringing new actors in the same game and new events ... this is tip if iceberg ... in 1 year, you will have 3 or more and in 2 years close to 10 such games with maybe 20% increase in head count .. company is now breakeven .. each game will add $10M a quarter to bottom
but how the hell it got here from over $5 a few weeks back when I was looking at it ...
I recall gomes article a year ago and price jumped to $3.4 .. maybe their readers are bailing out ...
and now getting $3.4 or less than half of what they were told !!! ouch .. they thought they could sell shares at $10
The whole racing rival franchise is now valued at $64M .. good thing they secured $30M cash
hey palawanislands .. you still here !!!
How did this get to $3.4 .. who is so desperate for cash to sell here ??
top mobile gaming are now far more valuable than last year
that should mean zero negotiation power and giving a grand bargain
i.e., the buyer thought $5.7 is a great bargain !!!
did sell out on bounce before the CC and back in at $1.36 ... This CEO must go and company put it in for sale .. tax loss selling, together with SA article and bad presentation by CEO .. EV value is very low now
good take .. but you are going with wrong conclusion .. i.e. price going lower
Bagdad Bob's voice and think about it -- YES
was a scripted event -- YES
that even ol' Bob didn't really want to say -- YES
is EXEL going BK before 2015 --- NO
Does it have very valuable assets --- YES
Roche will buy this at $2.5 (I used to think $5, but at this price, it could go for $2.5)
company will be worth about $10 a share (assumes 35% tax rate, 5% to Shaw, $2 a share company w/o cash infusion)
My guess, settlement would include above and also come sort of easier access for RVP to market (in lie of RVP settling thus dropping the injunction)
Depending on the terms, the company value may then be projected higher than $2
of the 55, roughly are early progress with 7 to 10 months (say 9 months) and half are normal with 20 months
so, averg is (9+20) /2 = 14.5 months versus 18 months they see .. just about 4 months improvement
if (or once) they get $8 cash injection plus some statements that should make it easier for them to market, stock could trade north of $8 for maybe a year. If company shows it is burning cash again, then it will dwindle down. Doubt it will trade less than $4 on this newa
Shaw owns 52% (or about 14M shares) and all long term capital gains tax ... He will make most money if share price goes up ... to be precise, $14M for each $ increase ...
on revenue of $40M a year, he makes $2M a year (7 to 10 years wait to make equivalent of $1 share gain) .. 7 to 10 years is a long wait for him
Also, a lot of his family own stock and not entitled to royalty .. they want the highest stock price .. as for 5%, he makes more, if settlement is higher
$3 was share price before judgement .. at the time, we did not know about legal fees to be paid for BDX and the injunction ..
What you say may happen, but just does not make much sense
Good question ... I think it will be by middle of next year and settlement will be BDX pays for legal fees plus $300M plus some sort of licensing fee for RVP technology .. together, I thin stock will cross $8 and you can still have a double from here .. just my 2 cents