The company had cash and cash equivalents of $684.3 million as of September 30, 2015, an
increase of $17.2 million from June 30, 2015. This increase in the cash balance is significantly less
than the cash flow from operations during the third quarter primarily due to $71.8 million used to
acquire shares of Depomed, Inc. during the quarter.
But such events would not cause a delay in ER. They could discuss it in the ER. I think odds of take over is very high and lack of chatter here and jump in price suggest we are at bottom of IBB cycle .. GL
Myalept worth +350M (acquisition price, fair given growth seeing)
Judi worth +400M (4 times sales, $25M quarter)
Net debt -150M
Market cap of $550M of $20 a share !!!
$34M to $44M .. that is a big drop form $58M a quarter in Q3 .. They could lose cash, together with a hefty fine from settlement could bring in a need to dilute
1- The 33 Q3 cents EPS, annualized gives it a p/e of 15 which is cheap by itself
2- Per CC, they will realize the remaining 22% price increase Q1 2016 .. that is another 14 cents EPS per quarter
3- Now assume a conservative net 15% YoY growth of Nucynta prescription/dosage growth .. that is another 9 cents EPS per quarter
4- Now they will pay off 100M debt of 10% interest .. that is another $2.5M a quarter or another 3 cents
5- assume everything else remains flat
so, EPS quarterly goes from 33 cents to 33+14+9+3 = 59 cents or $2.36 or p/e of 8.5 !! ... So, an acquisition at $40 a share cash is a great deal for the buyer
Now, very important is that they just hired a lot of new sales guys totaling about 275 .. Earnings of 33 cents reported for Q3 is after paying for hiring and paying for their salaries .. These 275 sales guys are tremendous asset and they can sell other products ...
If DEPO buys another drug with $40M annual sales and have these guys sell them ... With the breadth and presence they have, they can increase revenue by 50%, without overhead and drop another 70 cents a share to EPS
I am assuming a lower number going from old to new pricing .. Once all go to new pricing, I think we will have $2m a quarter just from USA heparin test .. Maybe around q2
This will fly sooner or later
I don't expect much action till we hit USA hit sales of over $1.5M and rest of the world of $1M a quarter .. Maybe q2 next year .. Then lots of cash will start flowing which could get this stock to another orbit .. Until then , It feels like paint dry
well quite terrible .. stock should stay under pressure for a while for missing what they said they are going to do .. CC was good .. i think everything got pushed back 2 to 3 quarter .. I was using $25k per hospital .. they are saying $15k ... also, i had 700 hospitals, now they are saying 500 by end of 2016 .. thse could also be a miss .. i think outlook is still bright but looking at 2017 as break out ..
you seem to be looking for clue on why stock is acting well ... it has nothing to do with HSV2
it is pretty obvious that it has to do with phase 3 for CMV run by Astella
While I don't know the market size or CMV vaccine, if ph3 passes FDA scrutiny, we do know that money VICL gets to make the vaccines for Astellas for a couple of clinical trials is about $3M a quarter ... this is just clinical trials .. if it is commercial, it would be 10 times more than this might be even conservative .. that is $30M a quarter .. cost of products is usually 10% of revenue .. given they make 10% royalty on sales, then they will probably also get $30M a quarter on royalty ... so, they will make $60M a quarter or $240M a year and they are at berakeven with only $20M a year ... most likely, they will earn about $150M a year or $1.5 a share or price should be about $15 a share !!!! let me repeat it $15 a share
Now for odds of succesm we know Astellas has stick with this and patient enrollment is even speeding up (revenue form Astellas higher than expected), so they must think the odds of success is at least 20% ... if 20% is good enough for Astellas, it will be good enough for investors ... 20% of $15 is $3 ...
So, stock will reach $3 after Astellas finalizes with FDA and agrees on primary end points and completes enrollment ...
if investors give it a higher odds of 50% success, it will get to $7.5 prior to read out
This is the reason VICL will move in and the only think that is going to put pressure on it is end of year tax loss selling ... also, they have 42 cents cash and will operate break even for a good while and stock is trading at 42 cents .. it is almost you are buying the chance of it going to $15 with very very low risk
100 enrolled for over 1 year. 1 year mortality
32 if vaccine performs like placebo
24 if vaccine performs well (as seen in oh2)
meeting phase 3, would make this a $15 to $20 stock ..
Question is what are the odds
I would say tax loss selling and delisting has put the pressure .. I am not sure why would anyone sell here below cash ... Sometimes , so many wait for reverse split to buy that it works in reverse ...
Would be fun if Astella or a private equity decides to take out Vicl .. Is there a poison pill ?
Move on .. Forget it
Would interesting to find out why a decrease in viral load
Would make shedding rate worse .. Maybe had to do with immune system response
But, I can assure you it is dead .. In contrast , one results for cmv are excellent
Having said that .. It is in comp to placebo .. Don't know why placebo performed so well .. If lesions rate goes down by 50% with no drugs .. but, still think it is best to forget it
For thousands of years and will work here as well
GREED says $20 if astellas phase 3 succeeds
Bid up to $5 starts early next year .. Buy the time it reaches $5 you can not find a message on this board
Sell at $5
the doctor away .. so, which phase 2b study is doing 4mg once a month
the stuff i read is all 1mg or 2mg a month .. these guys take baby steps