they have not guided. Maybe on March 27th, we get some ideas. I think catalysts on this stock are 1) announcing plan to list on Nasdaq which could take it to double digits very fast and 2) a large contract win
They are operating a tight ship so they will remain cash flow positive and any stock sale will be for acquisitions
88 cents in 2013 included one time events .. Excluding one times, number is 55 cents (based on 13 million shares) .. or p/e of about 11 .. also 55 cents did not have taxes, but they have 50 million NOL so no taxes for next 4-5 years
I project about $1 EPS in 2015 and should command a P/E of at least 25 some time this year .. So, I think it will hit $25 this year
am keeping an eye on this .. today, went up on high volume and then brought back down with low volume .. This bodes well for a sustained up move
thanks .. Did not realize it was down year ... I don't play index ... prefer focusing on stocks that have a changing fundamentals and price does not reflect it yet .. e.g. CORT adoption of Korlym for Cushing hitting an inflection point and also a ph3 study results due a few months ...
YTD .. I am up 30% on a $1 million portfolio. So, far I have been wrong only on ADAT, but that one may run too. I never talk about other stocks in a message board. I have a good size on CORT and I think 50dma wilol keep rising and support this stock.
See you at $8
PD results if positive $12, success probability, 40% -- risk adjusted price for PD = $4.8
Korlym for Cshing = $3
Korlym for breast cancer and other future applications .. I do not know
target price now = $3 + $4.8 = $8 (adjusted for PD results)
Good buy if 40% below target price or $4.5 or less
you must have small amount of shares to swing trade this as volume is fairly low. I am holding this through next earnings and pd results
my expectation are for Korlym sales to exceed $24M to $28M guidance as the drug improves symptoms and the longer patients on it, the better response and the higher dose they stick to... I value korlym for Cushing at around $3
Also, for pd, i expect better than 40% chance of success. since success will get this to $12, leading to a $5 upside taking into account risk
So, my sell target is $8 and expect that there is a 40% chance stock to trade at $15 by end of June
what is your price target for this stock (i.e. at what price do you plan to sell and at what price to add?)
any thoughts .. it fits with market weak and the way stock acting and no news till April .. You never know though
we are the only ones posting here ..
As for PD, we know
1- last study showed 40% had significant improvement if their plasma level got to 1660
2- CEO says, if thye inject 1,200 mg 7 days, 80% get to that level
So, odds are not bad for a positive results
As for Korlym, you say what I half posted, after 6 months of being on korlym, patients symptoms got better, and better and better .. I think we are at very early stages of rev growth for this indication and $28M is a very low ball estimate
LoL .. you and your magic stuff
1- Cushing (from 5 months ago);
The study found that GCR increased progressively over time and by the end of the 24 week study, 88% of patients were reported as being improved. Key parameters that had strong correlation to GCR included changes in body weight (P
Plasma trough concentrations ranged from 0 to 4559 (mean=1671, SD=780) with approximately
one-third of patients achieving concentrations higher than the pre-specified level of 1800 ng/mL
Plasma concentration & efficacy association was statistically significant in the ITT sample
Post hoc analysis indicated that the optimum plasma level for distinguishing responders
from non-responders was 1661 ng/ml
In patients with concentrations ≥1661, response rate was 42% (mifepristone) vs.
17% (placebo) (p=0.018)
Ask yourself, if your brother or sister was suffering from severe psychotic depression and thye told you, we give her/him 7 days of this drug and if her body plasma level gets higher to 1,600 ng/ml, then she has about a 50% chance of recovery for life and if not, no harm down except your insurance has to shell out $10,000 what would be your decision.
there was some selling last hour. Someone wants to sell his shares .. I added
Somenoe buying and then selling hundred shares .. it will go on for so long .. let's touch base in a few weeks
Endogenous Cushing’s syndrome is a serious, debilitating and rare multisystem disorder. It is caused by the overproduction of cortisol (a steroid hormone that increases blood sugar levels) by the adrenal glands. This syndrome most commonly affects adults between the ages of 25 and 40. About 5,000 patients will be eligible for Korlym treatment, which received an orphan drug designation by the FDA in 2007.
So, a 20% penetration is 1000 times $20k times 12 months = $240 Million or $200 Million profit
This is crazy just this application and I think this is the hockey stick part of growth where it took 2 years for doctors to get comfortable ordering the drug