Do you know this space .. I read a bit about it .. It looks to me you have got
1- ASBT inhibitor that says don't return Bile Acid (BA) to liver and instead dump it to colon .. This is Alberio drug
2- FGF 19 ?? That tells liver how much BA to make ?!?!
3- a sort of central control impacting both with less independent control .. FXR controller .. This is ICPT drug
Don't know about this space
Edikagbr .. I don't know if you realize it or not, but if you, dr Forst and private equity now offer $1M for entire pipeline and lawsuit, it is Biodel management resp To accept the offer UNLESS they have a better offer on table ...,this is because they have implied that best offer on table to date has been zero and valuation of RM has been based on zero .. Alberio and biode combined presentation did not make any ref to those assets
Does not matter if you like it or not. Fact is that in this deal,
1- Biod Pipe and lawsuit were valued at ZERO, cash at $30M, Nasdaq listing guessing around $5Mand
2- Alberio net cash at zero including the additional $10M and its debt and its pipeline at $70M
I know that because I called the company and specifically asked if our legacy pipeline were to be sold, what would happen and they confirmed it would change the deal because it is based on cash at closing
That means it was valued as ZERO by Alberio .. So don't hope for them developing the pipeline
If you can contact Boehringer, either directly or through professor Forst, any money offered for our entire pipeline will have to be accepted by Biod management and returned to shareholder prior to closing
You are right that Alberio science is good .. It is simple in that it partially redirects human Bile Acid (BA) from going back to liver and instead to colon .. BA is natural laxative and that is why it works for chronic constipation .. The higher dose, the more BA .. This shown in over 800 patients to date .. So, Japan odds of a positive p3 readout is good .. They could exchange that Japan license and milestone with $30M once approved
For addressing livers that can not process BA, it will work to the extent it can redirect and lessen the impact in exchange for patient having more diarrhea symptoms .. So it is def a helper
Vdor .. Valuing all of Alberio IBAT drugs for $60M is not bad at all
How much that Japanese company paid to license a3309 for CIC in Japan ?
Am guessing Alberio burned average of $15M a year since 2008 for a total of $120M to date .. Seed money about $50M .. So, rest from with licensing deals ??
My problem is with valuing Biod pipe as zero
Exclusive ip for Sanofi and they can start, if they want to, spend $50M p3 ready B531 and kick U500 sales in you know where at w cost of peanuts for them and odds of success is pretty good
Take out pipeline for free
Give us 2% royalty on sales for any sold using our IP
Company must accept this deal or will go to jail unless they have a Better deal on table
Better than zero
Company will issue a tracking stock for every share we have and deposit as dividend
And now imagine headlines that AZN was part of scheme of buying shares either in germeny or in USA in multiple account to steal part of $30M from investors ..
Read papers published by Alberio .. As I said .. This is top notch group .. With some high profile investors ..
And finally ask yourself why would Biod management keep scientists and device guys on roster when they were negotiating with Alverio with zero value for pipeline
Any other outcome , there will be a lawsuit on Biodel and Alberio .. Now imagine in the lawsuit, they track that Alberio 4 investors were buying shares while telling Biodel investors that that your management valued pipeline as zero
I have read about Alberio, papers they have published and their 4 investors .. They are too class .. One is AZN .. They will not want to get involved with insider trading of buying shares up prior to last weeks news .. This wood be a big mess
4- and do you think a slam dunk lawsuit is worthless .. Don't you think there are law firms willing to take 50% of profit and follow this case .. Shareholder are willing to pay some money for expert witness .. That is enough for UNIS to settle ASAP
GG and PB 1.1M shares gets vested quarterly over several years . To the extent they got vested this year , they deserve any cash from sale of pipeline and lawsuit settlement .. But not all of it ..
So hang in there .. And by the way, anyone being here below net cash is going to vote NO as they get cash plus pipe and lawsuit for free ..
Now, if they sell pipeline and settle lawsuit and give that cash to us prior to closing .. Votes May turn to yes
Only thing funny is now I hear pipeline is worthless .. Only thing out there beating U500 for insulin resist with concentrated with potential for artificial pancreas .. And we can't give it for free for some future royalty stream
Ask yourself a few questions
1- what do you really think Biod pipeline is worth?
2- do you think Sanofi would be willing to take the pipeline, patents for free and if someday they develop it, they give current shareholders a 5% royalty on sales
3- do you think it is fair GG and PB 1.1M shares to get a portion of sale of pipeline? Maybe legal but does not pass smell test
Only fair way is to separate money earned from sale of pipeline and pass it to 64.1M shares (not given to GG and PB) and the money earned from this RM to be distributed base on 66M shares .. Anything else , BOD gets sued .. Etc
I am thinking they will sell diabetes pipeline for a good sum .. Money waned from that sale, small or large, represents fruits of investment made by shareholders over past 10 years and should be returned to shareholders, separate from money for RM
The money Biodel has now is money rhat was set aside for future development and so that is being redirected to one that meets investment Capitol for competing a p2 and p3 and taking advantage of Nasdaq listing to increase its effect
So as long as they sell pipeline for best sum (even if small), what they are doing is ok
for another 10 cents $6.6M .. Why else do we have scientists on Roster here and device guy
give us 10 cents as div before deal closes
Some are saying Alberio is buying shares to make sure deal goes through .. They should file SEC if exceeds 5% , so am not sure how they do it .. Maybe 10 different accounts each at 4.99%
It appears so. But let's wait a few more months ...
Do you really believe we can not sell B531, for say $500,000. What about the stable glucagon we have for another $500,000 ... That is salary of three scientists for 1 year !!! ..
My point is that they have a duty, to sell the pipeline before deal closes and not after it. Since after, we get only 33% and waiting it out does not increase value of these assets. If anything lowers it
Take this together with the fact that they have kept several scientists and device guys on roster even after this deal was announced. Now, why do you want to pay these guys 1 more day if you don't need their expertise.
So, all of this points to BIOD must be announcing sale of pipeline before our deal closes, over next 3-4 months. It maybe $1M or $50M ... We will find out,
Lol .. If compound works .. It is right ..Shire
Compound was same principle and worked so so .. They said theirs is improved
Actually .. I did not realize till now that the three indications they are targeting gets this to $60 a share !!!
I think my math is right and conservative
Rare disease pricing is $500,000 a year .. I used $350,000
30% penetration in USA , EU and Japan .. Conservative since there is no other drug
4 times peak sale .. Conservative ..for rare disease .. Use 6
Not hard to do .. Constipation can have peak sales of $300M worldwide .. $50Mcrrcurribg royalty .. That is $2
Rare disease .. $1B peak sales for each indication (30% penetration and $350,000 pricing) .. $20 a share for each indication, also voucher priority review is $250M for each indication
So expect some pumping prior to deal .. Maybe they am once cohort 3 results
Same time .. My guess is if shareholders vote no to merger .. Conpany will liquidate