Who gets the cash?
See presentation posted in the sec filing ..
1- elxobitat is blockbuster .. Great p2 data ..,Japan nda q1 2017,.. Different mechanism than sgyp and ironwood linzines large bowl vs small intestine
2- the orphan is open lable and read out 2h 2016 .. Most likely good and before closing
3- most important. Is no mention of b531, 123 and 961 and lawsuit ... My guess they were valued zero in deal .. They are probably close to final sale and settlement and any cash we should get dividend before closing
I think pipeline is already sold .. We should hear about that soon .. If sale price is too high, they may pay us dividend and keep some for new company to get more ownership
Hang in there .. We should see pipeline sale deal and lawsuit settlement prior to closing as there is incentive to fire sale these ... Private company should also work hard on upwelling the deal
Settlement ... That would then change terms of deal .. Hang in there
The new company phase 3 had 650 patient data and partner stated the new phase 3 .. Odds are very good .. This alone could bring in $20M recurring and milestone ..
1- cash from UNIS is due
2- cash from sake of pipeline
3- the CIC in Japan .. Milestone and double digit royalty
4- Vouchers for priority review worth a couple of hundred million in future
5-the CIC can be licensed in USA (sgyp has $700M market cap )
6- the rare disease can become very valuable
7- management that Tutes buy into
Or prior to ph2 results from privat company compound
Since they need BIOD shareholder vote , am guessing we should see some positive PR from private company on their phase 2 prior to our vote and also a resolution of lawsuit and potential pipeline sale
Biod was valued at $40M ($30M cash)
Private company at $80M ($10M cash)
$10M for our pipe and lawsuit is way too low
I don't know value of private company .. Their board and ceo seem to be high quality
IF biod is valued at $30M cash and zero pipeline, then Albireo pipeline is valued at $50M
giving share price of 45 cents for combined
If biod is valued at $30M cash and $30M for pipeline, then Albireo is valued at $110M
giving share price of 90 cents
If biod is valued at $30M cash and $50M pipeline, then Albiero pipe is valed at $150M
given such an impressive management and prmising pipline .. who knows .. maybe we get lucky and break the $
Hard to see Biod shareholder vote YES, if they get only 35 cents ..
Saint-Prex, Switzerland, Gothenburg, Sweden, July 3, 2012 – Ferring Pharmaceuticals (Ferring) and Albireo AB (Albireo) announced today that they have signed a license agreement under which Ferring has rights to develop and commercialise elobixibat, a first-in-class compound for chronic idiopathic constipation (CIC) and irritable bowel syndrome with constipation (IBS-C). The agreement gives Ferring rights to market the product globally with the exception of Japan and a small number of Asian markets. In consideration of the rights, Ferring will pay Albireo a significant upfront licensing fee, milestones and tiered double-digit royalties. Ferring will also be responsible for development costs in its territory.
so .. knowing this deal value, can give us an idea of this portion of their pipeline ..
agree .. But I believed the pipeline we developed over 10 years and such good products like stable glucagon and B531 are far more valuable than to just throw it out .. At 75 cents, which this may end up, they are valuing all of our pipeline at $25M
their value is now about $700M and I was thinking it is a good buy .. After FDA approval, probably around $1.5B
So, this Japanese phase 3 is only 120 patients and should go quick .. if it passes, i am guess it should be valued at $250M .. At this point probably around $40M
I am guessing, we will go up .. we better go up, or deal will fall through, which is also fine by me
calls in to ask questions .. can you ask what is the plan for Biod diabetes pioeline
1- throw out as useless, or
2- try to sell it, and if this is the option, what do they think they can get it for
and 3- what is the plan for lawsuit
The value is in their much market ... 3,000 patients in usa .. Rare disease is priced at about $300,000 to $500,000 per year .. You can see several reference for it .. Very easy for small company to build a sales team and penetrate quickly .. USA sales could quickly reach to $300M if approved .. Giving a $1.5B valuation of $7 a share ..
Nash is huge , but you have ICPT
CIC is big, but you have ironwood and SgYP .. So Japan market may give them some recurring royalty down the road
My surprise is why not sell all your assets first and the a rev merger .. Unless they valued BIOd at say $60M and private company at $120M for combined $180M
There private company has survived 8 years on $40M plus milestone payments on heir compound to get here .. Their rare disease seems the most lucrative ... They are waiting a phase 2 readout .. I would guess that should be before shareholder vote
I will vote NO if share price is less than 60 cents which assume peanuts for our pipeline and forget about lawsuit
Smith said 10 cents lower tomorrow .. My point was why do we need to vote yes to 27 cents when liquidation gives 45 cents
If pipeline is worthless and we drop lawsuit .. I know I get 45 cents, or say 49 cents at least
Why should I vote yes to 27 cents