What are your peak projection sales for
1- MTC - USA
2- MTC - EU
3- Cobi/zel attributed to EXEL in USA
4- Cobi/zel attributed to EXEL in EU
5- NSLC sales
6- RCC if successful (give it 30% chance)
You seem to have been right. I thought we go over $2. Strange with cobi/Zel to be sapproved .. MTC in EU growing ... NSLC appl .. should lead to $200M peak rev or $1B valuation now -- minus debt of $200M to $300M .. should give $3.5 to $4 now . now add METEOR chance and you should be at least $4 .. oh well time will tell .. but you seem to be right (for now)
what price are you short? ...
i would cover here if i were you and take a loss, but if you are confident about your investment thesis, you should add to your short position ..
thousands of paper get published ,,, expect good supporting info in DCVax, but nothing earth shattering ..
The only question here is what is the median PFS of control group on ph3 .. if that is 9 or 10 months, then you should buy here as you make a lot of money in less than a year
if control group has median pfs of 15 months or longer, you should sell
thanks in advance
it is fairly priced here
market cap, ex cash, is less than $1.5B .. this is not a high price for a leader in a hot growing field
next quarter they will do over 20 cents next quarter ... so, p/e is about 20 to 25 here
fair enough .. but don't forget they depreciated $7M in quarter .. all in all, you can adjust up my numbers up by $2M ... Case 2 is $10M burn a quarter which I said in my original post
remember, they have two phase three trials and one ending in 2H 2015 ... they can be monetized quite well if cash is going to be an issue .. in the mean time see my analysis which shows 2016 revenue of $150M in USA and $300M outside
In the US, EXEL will pay 25% of marketing and commercial costs of zel+cobi .. trial cost of cobi has been fully paid by Roche and already depreciated in their income.
Outside is a straight royalty on sales
Revenue will not be $10M, It is close to $7 now. Yet to see Sobi efforts for EU
R&D won't be $20M, Was $50M for 5 phase three. What will it be for two trials starting 2015?
SG&A won't be $6M. Was $16M before lay off of 70% ..
and Interest Expense won't be $10M. ... why not?
But I do agree with you on selling assets to lower costs. You get that news and you have something there. I would hop on then. ,, ok!
what are you talking about
cash profit or loss = revenue - cost of revenue - R&D - SG&A - interest expense
revenue = $10m
cost of revenue = $2M
R&D = $20m
SG&A = $6M
interest expense = $10M
quarterly Cash loss = 10 -2 -20 - 6 - 10 = $28M
sell off the other phase 3 trials to big pharma so they take over R&D in exchange for some money (otherwise they can just halt it)
quarterly Cash loss = 10 -2 -0 - 6 - 10 = $-8M
now add royalty revenue of cobi based on non-us sales
if zel + cobi sells for $20,000 a month, then zel gets some and cobi gets some. Looks like GSK has used a 50/50 split for Tafi and MEK. I used same split. You need to 1st calculate cobi sales and then the portion that goes to EXEL.
Taking your mid point of $800M and 50/50 split between Zel and cobi, gives annual sales of $400M for cobi. My analysis above assumes $450M for cobi global sales. $300M outside US and $150 in the US
Mekinist and Tafinlar ,, In the US, last quarter (assuming $1.6 = 1 pound)
Mek did about $30M
Taf did about $25M
We do not know Roche combo pricing but should be higher than GSK combo. Assuming similar success to GSK, slightly higher pricing for zel+cobi and assuming sales outside US are twice the US
Cobi sales will start at
$150M in US
$300M outside US
Outside US, assuming 15% royalty gives $45M royalty per year
Within US, with 50/50 revenue split and 90% gross margin and 25% op-ex, $50M profit
Some above gives starting with roughly $90M a year. If this will eb standard of care for this population segment, numbers will be higher
semanresu .. why do you keep throwing $65M burn rate ... that is past ..
$50M was for R&D of 5 phase 3 trials ... Starting 2015, there will be only two phase 3 .. That is optional .. if thye want to they can halt those two or sell out ... $50M can go to zero if they want to
$16.5M was sg&a and they just let go of 70% staff .. that number will be closer to $6M a quarter going forward in 2015
Interest payment will be $10M a quarter
So, burn can be quickly dropped to $10M quarter or less (less if you have money for MTC in EU, increased sales of MTC in US, royalty for cobi from EU and profit share for cobi in US)
As for your discussion for Roche including dev cost to avoid paying taxes (so that no profit in US is going to go to EXEL for three year is speculation). ROCHE has already expensed those each quarter ... They can not reverse that by tax laws. Also, EXEL discovered the compound. EXEL gave up majority of profits on outside US (2/3 of sales) and agreeing to no milestone payment upon approval in return for Roche paying for dev. cost.