lol .. news everyday is stupid and not necessary. Only news is partnership for Zyberstat with Roche
Roche will not put all its eggs in one basket. They are looking at several different options to enhance Avastin. One would be Zyberstat. They will pay an upfront payment plus milestone payment for locking exclusivity. maybe $50M upfront and $300M milestone plus 10% royalty on sales. This will put Roche for only $40M option to lock in exclusivity for this drug. They may never sell any if they find a better drug or if Zyver fails to impress. But, if this news comes in we get over $10
agree with you on this .. you can not use LV2 for informed buy or sell judgment. True BIG buyers or sellers hide their bids.
It is not about this. It is about if 1) ZyberSTAT is safe and 2) it is additive to Avastin's benefit for Ovaraion cancer
If so, Roche will offer both to patients as alternative to checmo. Next study will how benefits of all three comabined
Shorts are all over DPNcheck and lack of CMS code .. old news (1 year old) ... No doubt company goofed up in 2006 to 2008 ... but it is 2014 nowm and market cap is hell of lot lower than it was in 2006 to 2008
Good luck to all
2006 to 2008 ... So, are you short in 2014 ?? .. LOL .. Let's see if you can get price to $1.85 ofr a double bottom .. I don't think so, it is going to be a W bottom but with second low at low $2
do not agree. I think people should buy if/when this closes above $3.5
This is either $30 stock or $1 stock. Depends if ZyberSTAT is additive to Avsitan or not
what I thought .. If this stock goes below $3 and stays there before results, then there is good odds Zyberstat did not do anything good. If, it goes above $5, then you probably are looking at much higher stock price post news
all patient population is known and many already know preliminary results. If results are expected to be good, stock will trade north of $15 post good results, it will trade over $6 before news is out. We will find out in a couple of month
hold and do not sell. 1/3 of diabetics have some sort of pain in their foot. Narcotics are good for some. But others prefer non-narcotics pain relief. This is the only simple device to get pain relief. Once patient feedback moves away from CEO slide to internet, $10 will be too cheap
Incorrect,, fully dilted PLUS all warrants and cash form itincluded, it has about 11M shares and $13M cash. (about $1 cash and $25M for company). See my post on projected Avastin sales for Ovarian cancer.
Zyberstat will be a good addition/complementary to this drug. Roche has money up the wazoo
to put things in perspective, Avastin is being manufactured by Genentech. Roche bought Genentech in 2006 (I think). Roche is a $235B company ($235B is not a typo)
Individually, the % of patients alive 1 year out are about 25% with Avastin or Zyberstat (individually). If combo get this to say 40%, then imagine how much more valuable avastin would be if they buy out Zyberstat
If avastin hopes to get to $2B sales (a druge value of $10B), then payinganything less than $300M for Zyberstat is highway robbery.
So, you can see the potential and that is what I think maybe the real reason recent oxgn Novemebr activity.
Instead, it could be due to early results seen in Avastin + Zybrestat trial (GOG 186I) ongoing study.
Avastin (hopes to make $2B just in ovarian cancer) targets new blood vessel in tumors. Zyberstat goes after existing blood vessels inside the tumor. So, it is possible that the combo is more powerful than individually. The preliminary results must be well known already (while final results are due 1H 2014).
if it walks like a duck ... you know the rest ... I am more of a trader and expert in electronics and electrical engineering. I know little about the pharma world and would really like to gain perspective of thoses who have been around for a long time to tell me of $25M for the orphan drugs is very low, low, about right, high, very high. That should gove some fundamentals behind the technicals which as you pointed out has turned upside down starting this month.
Also, as I saidm people need to use 11M shares and $11M cash for their analysis (market cap shown by yahoo is incorrect)
What is the valure of these orhpan drugs that OXGN has in US and Europe. Would these drugs be worth a lot forr a new partner to pay for these.
With 11M shares and $13M cash (fully assuming all warrants and convertibles excersised) , the company, net of cash, is being valued at about $25M. Are these orpha drugs worth a lot more or $25M, or $25M is about right. I come from a tech background so am unfamiliar with pharma valuations. Thanks in advance for your input.
As you see my past post, I think the new buyers which now own 40% of the company have declared their interest to sell most of their shares. This, i think, can not happen for them at a profit unless there expect a significant upside in share price
For one, they rasied $5.8M and then used $2.8M of it to retire some earlier converts at higher price which makes no sense to me at ll
2- The rasie of $5.8M and same amoutn in warrants translates to about diluting 5M share of compnay minus about 0.7M which they redeemd. So, roughtly speaking they went from 6.8M shares to 11.8M which means the new buyers now own 40% of the company !!!
3- But, most imporant is that the new owners have filed to sell thier holdings from time to time (see form this last Thursday, Nov 14). So, how the heck are you going to sell 5M shares in a stock that had 20,000 share volume a day without taking a loss is beyond me. But, the exact opposite is happennig. Volume skyrocketed in Novemeber and price has increased since then from $2.5 to $3.2. However, still the stock can not handle a major sell by holders withut major pullback
So, what is my conspiracy theory. The company for whatever reason wanted to give 40% of the company to these few buyers. The new buyers must have known (rememebr this was back in septmeber when share price was $2.5 and volume was pathetic for a long time) some major good news is on horizon. These guys do not risk so much in a illiquid stock and then turn around and annouce sale plan unless they know this stock has a very good chance of going up big to allow them to unload. Take a look at QTWW which bough stock in mid $2s and a mont hafter stock shot up to $7 and he has not sold yet
My spec is this stock will go higher maybe above $7, alowing these guys to sell their stock at hefty profit.
WE shall see