But it has so much going for it ..
focus on skin cancer biz
We’re also increasing our efforts to improve reimbursement and have developed initiatives on a national and regional level with targeted payers to increase reimbursement for hospitals and physicians. An example of our progress and reimbursement is, as of November 1st, 19 States will have a positive policy for non-melanoma skin cancer versus only 10 States on July 1st of this year.
previous post talked about 1000 treatments .. target market in US alone is 1 million (reported 1% penetration with a quarter of states reimbursing)
service and supplies for Xoft, which reflects the increased use of supplies as customers treatment volumes increase.
Recurring service xoft revenue of $0.75 M end of march Q1 (625 skin patients treated)
Recurring service xoft revenue of $1.05 M end of june Q2 (800 skin patients treated)
Recurring service xoft revenue of $1.46 M end of sept Q3 (1000+ skin patients)
focus on the recurring revenue and the skin cancer
I am giving a price target of $100 by end of 2014
skin treatment of 2,500 more per quarter by Q4, resulting in incremental revenue of $10M per quarter. With 70% margin, all fall to bottom line and lots of tax loss carry over and 10 million shares, Q4 EPS = 70 cents
run rate eps = $2.8 .. p.e of 50 is cheap as it will be growing way more than 50% ... 50 * 2.8 = $140 .. let's say $100 because we are friends .. and that is US only for skin cancer with modest growth !!!
hang tight on this one .. best out there .. even better than ADAT
skin treatment US only .. GROWTH ..
July 1, 11 states reimbur, as of Nov 1 about 19 states
Thank you for your bashing. I added 10,000 share today
Remember these facts
1-July 1st 10 states had reimbur, Nov 1st 19 states
2-Last year they did 800 skin treatment, this year over 1000 a quarter
3- Cash flow breakeven, incremental to bottom line or to increase R&D
I was just googling and i saw someone posted this a couple of months ago
"The Veterans Administration has gone digital! I received this gadget today from VA Palo Alto and it will allow my VA Palo Alto doctor (635 miles away) to remotely monitor my daily health and also deliver video messages and health/wellness content. I can also reply to "questions" from the doctor. It is tied to my VA electronic health record and brings the doctor's office to my home office. Device by ExpressMD Solutions."
It does not mean much ... just hat VA in Palo Alto looks like it has started ramping up...
Volumes, etc can change on a dime. Stock going up could change direction at any time. No one really knows for certain or can talk with confidence. and vice versa.
I think company's products vetted by VA and increasing number of health plans looking to these types of solution puts ADAT at an inflection point and also a pure play so a likely take over candidate. So, share price could certainly drop to $1.40s, or could climb higher before any meaningful consolidation.
He makes sense. I don't think it will go back to $1.2, but retrace to $1.40s certainly makes sense. You never know thought. It could keep climbing or could win a big customer, gap up and keep climbing.
My 6 months price target is $7 which is based on what is already out there. VA has 7 million patients and over half million are expected to transition over next 3 years. The numbers are out of whack.
i just listened to LD conference. I don't understand it well. But, on the skin treatment, the CEO said, they are seeing a lot of growth and are now at 1% penetration. At 25% penetration they will get $500M
My quick calc, $500M is annual sales of $40 a share, annual profit of $15 a share and $300 target !!!!
the chart does not indicate sell off on horizon .. .. What metrics are you looking at? .. fundamentals pointing stock overvalued?
agreed. Consolidation for a few weeks would be good for this stock. however, you never know about stocks. You may wait for a pull back and never get it until it hits $5 ... Or you may buy in now and get stuck
Disagree. Chart is overbought on any measure and needs a pull back to $1.5 and consolidation for a few weeks at least.
However, the outlook is driving shares higher despite being overbought.
CEO said gap profitability by end of fourth (by end of June). This can happen only with both improving top line and gross margins. This may or may not happen, but it does show their anticipated top line and bottom line growth in a short amount of time. I do not believe they were counting on any additional big wins with this outlook. If that happens it would be a big plus.
Warrants being exercised would bring more buying pressure, as the company cash position will improve which is a big plus for winning other big projects and further validate major investor confidence in this stock.
My view is that this is a stock that you will look back in December 2014 and you would say, wish I had bought at $1.8 ...
for mos of the day. Buying, waitnig to price drop back, then buy again.
Out of 1 million shares, my guess is that 700,000 share was bought by one or more investors.
$7 by end of June is my guess. Could happen earlier if they announce a big win (similar size to VA) prior to that.
Their CC talked about Dept of Defense (DOD) mimicking VA.
A reasonable speculation. But, it is only spec at this point. CEO said starting next month this will happen
Lowering manufacturing cost is good and results in better gross margins. Also, adds a dual source supply in the mean time. Use of offshore offshore to meet higher expected volume is a speculation, but a reasonable one.
ADAT is at stage 1 of a 10 stage ramp up.
Info on warrants and converts is all in 10k
For the sake of talking to myself, since no one here seems to bother .. As i listened to the presentation (and bo that is a long call), somewhere in the middle, CEO said gross margins on products are now around 20%. He then said they are moving a manufacturing offshore bringing gross margins up to 60% on products (someone please double check)...
So, their confidence must in large part come from lower manufacturring cost. Say, $2M revenue and getting gross margins from 25% to 60% is an extra $900,000 ... Reduction will not get to all revenue but you get the idea
Also, CEO said margins on recurring revenue is above 85%. I guess, as they sell these products, the high margin revenue should follow shortly afterwards