$100M a year is slight profitability excluding RB4
Agree with you that they need to hit a min sales of RB4 to offset costs. your additional $2M a quarter in expenses suggest a min sales of $25M a year
it has 71m shares ...
it is at break even at $100M sales .. they did $90M in the last quarter and my guess is that with increased adoption of ps4 and xbox1, they are at breakeven going forward
RB4 should add about $3M to bottom line for every $10M sales. Given they have lots of tax loss carry over (about $50M), no taxes on income any time soon. $3M is about 4 cents eps .. So, the first $10M in RB4 sales, more than justifies current share price which is now has about $7M in cash
i expect this earnings report and maybe next one would be the worst over next few years. This one might be especially bad, due to euro rapid drop and that much sales come form europe
like any other stock, there is risk ..
Are you implying that if harmonix decides to do publishing with another entity, then it is good for MCZ as it removes a secondary shelf possibility?
well, unless you are farily sure results are going to be very good, you do it before.
If results are not good, this is going to $2 and company is done.
if you do it now, it hedges against above risk and they can now float 7 million shares at $15 netting $100M. I think you are seeing Roth customers shorting the box now as they are guaranteed profit
If results are good, they can see 2 million shares to net them $100M and so they will save 5 million less float.
I think writing is on the wall that you will hear about secondary before results
Just an opinion
copy/paste from 8k
Mad Catz primarily will be responsible for hardware development and manufacturing, physical game manufacturing, distribution, and channel marketing costs related to the Rock Band 4 video game. Mad Catz will act as publisher of record for all Rock Band 4 hardware. In addition, Mad Catz will act as publisher of record for physical copies of the Rock Band 4 game in the event Harmonix does not enter into an agreement with an alternative publisher
i.e. is this material info for a release or filing?
rock band 4 has full compatibility wit old versions .. so, only new users will buy the hardware
Let's wait to see if mcz remains as the publisher
Activision is changing the controller
Harmonix + Madcatz for RB4 hardware plus publishing
Harmonix + Activsion for GH hardware plus publishing
the drop of euro together with large sales coming from euro is not factored as bad earnings yet .. other than that, agree with you that downside is limited and upside is high
15th is date for publishing .. also harmonix has stated in their tweets that they will release lots more info in May .. possibly on the instruments .. So, may will get more visibility
1- There is risk with any stock and esp with MCZ going to zero .. e.g. they could build huge inventory of RB4 and no one buys ..
2- There is good odds MCZ goes above $1 this year
3- If MCZ also published for RB4 .. could hit $4+
4- Euro decline is not priced in stock.
5- Where is PS4 controllers made by MCZ
goo d exercise for everyone to read the 10k on march 5th .. also exhibit 10.1
It is obvious they can not disclose some info .. e.g. this is is form exhibit 101. They will not say what the bundle price is goingto be at this itme ... this is given
$[***] Band in the Box Retail Bundle/Band in the Box Pre-Order Bundle
$[***] Guitar Bundle
$[***] for one copy of Rock Band 4 Stand Alone Software
this past qarter .. that is 20% drop in currency and and I think 40% of revenue comes from Europe
Anyone knows the impact?
Stock price at record low, reflecting severla years if drought and almost getting wiped out
1- phase out of PS3 and xbox360
2- RB3 way past its life
3- failure of mojo
4- smart phones used touch screen for controller
5- cash raise depressed price another 30% (good for stock options here)
These three new growth drivers offer hope
2- PS4 and Xbox 1 upgrade cycle
3- controller for smart phones
Unique juncture of paying extremely low price after years of drought and good conditions look to be ahead
noting ROTH with its $70 price target did not ask any question n CC. My guess they are the underwriters and offering will be at $14.5. their clients are shorting now.
IMHO, this should be illegal
and pricing will probably be around $14.5 ...
good point and makes sense... revenue from private label was $1.5M (5% of $30M) in the last quarter which is small, but not negligible
Stock is a very good buy here. Hope every long accumu. or average down. Next two years is going to be very good for MCZ
We also experienced an increase in sales of products developed for smart devices, which represented 5% and 8% of our net sales during the three and nine months ended December 31, 2014, respectively, driven primarily by controllers sold to a customer in APAC under a private label program
Does not sounds a US sales.. i.e. amazon controller