Some times stock goes down for months and makes up for loss in a few days .. I think s take out is likely with these depressed prices .. How could they reject a $2.5 offer, ecen if it undervalues the company
Vical at these prices is volnurable to a take out .. Who knows, maybe Cmrx offers $3 to take them out .. They will forget about astellas and start p3 with their antiviral and vaccine
.. $3 is chump change for the acquirer
How do you come up with $1 by March .. No one really knows .. Only thing we know is that it is trading below cash and the pipeline and status plus tech they have works
Why sell below cash .. Ippox giving $4M to make a part of HIV vaccine in p1/2 .. That means they have something
Granted Cmrx is killing the cmv field and may take 90% market .. But remaining 10% is good enough for a 10 fold increase in price .. I think it increases odds of astellas taking them out now
You sold this company and its tech and sold it for less than zero !!!
It was a legal wink, disclosed only in the CC, targeting only those faithful holders who listen to presentation ...
They are telling you, the few faithful who listen in, to buy.
I still think Astellas will take them out at $2.5 to $4
There is CMRX, with their antiviral which can take on a lot of market .. Astellas, needs to fold VICL profits in house to make the vaccine worth it as the market will not be a $5B market .. maybe $500M . .can't give $150M a year to VICL ,,, and VICL knows this too, or else Astellas will back ot of the whole vaccine deal and VICL left with nothing
I say $4 ..
a pathetic p/e of 18 (and pretty much everyone knows these guys can easily go above 18% EPS growth)
and a $2.5 EPS in 2016 (yes, consensus is $1.87, but who is they guy who has $1.25 LoL)
gives a great buy at 18 times 2.5 = $45 .. so at $45, cramer will say Buy, buy buy .. PEG of less than 1 !!
You would not make these stuff up .. Astellas has told therm based on info they have, they now expect p2 has already met 50% reduction
Again .. I am asking the question to this board
Did last Q cc say that astellas has informed them that p2 in SOT has already met the 50% reduction in cnv
If yes, why is this below $2
The primary endpoint of this trial is the incidents of CMV viremia and the study has already shown approximately 50% reduction in CMV viremia at one year after transplantation. I am pleased to announce that Astellas has now confirmed their expectation, but the top line data will be released in the third quarter of 2016.
IT is not 1 year from May 2015 .. How did they show 50% reduction
A total of 150 kidney transplant recipients were enrolled at approximately 80 centers in the United States, Europe and Australia. As a reminder, this is a randomized double blind placebo control study and CMV seronegative recipient who received the kidney from a CMV seropositive donor. This group is at the highest risk for developing CMV viremia, which typically occurs in about 50% of subjects. This group also has the substantial risk for developing CMV disease, which typically occurs at about 35% of subjects within the first one year after transplantation. The primary endpoint of this trial is the incidents of CMV viremia and the study has already shown approximately 50% reduction in CMV viremia at one year after transplantation. I am pleased to announce that Astellas has now confirmed their expectation, but the top line data will be released in the third quarter of 2016.
Never mind .. Talked to a doctor and he explained it to me
It is important stuff like kidney et al
Also said the cmv virus is terrible in these patient population and if you can help it is greatly needed
I never claimed I know much about medicine .. I just know what to buy and when to buy
This stock will have pressure through next 4 months but this is the best time to buy
looking at all data, what will make ARWR separate from others is their discovery and developement of ARC-521 ... We will see results of that in human in Q4 2016 ...