do the math ...
5.5" displays, lots more pixels and a lot faster . selling in millions ,,, trend is friend
with KK promoting it .. it does $70M a quarter
When the next celebrity is signed, gluu pps gets a good jump
Aapl adoption of NFC is a huge step towards making NFC mainstream. This will be the payment of future and OTI will be taken out .. too bad they are losing the patent case against Tmobile, otherewise you would be talking about a $50 potential versus $6 now
from last CC
" To recall we expanded the sales force from 5 to 15 reps at the end of last year and they have now collectively been in the field for more than six months. These reps made close to 2000 calls on customers this quarter."
15 rep costs $3M a year ... Their MTC is making $21M net profit for a big pharma to acquire .. $300M is a P/E of 15 for a big pharma which is very low considering they are at early stage of growth and EU has not been factored yet
Their MTC drug could fetch well above $300M ..
The 70% cut comes mostly from here w/o impacting the sales force .. Last I read, the sales force was costing about $1M a quarter
The $300M price tag for a big pharma is actually on the low side ...
MTC product GROSS profit was $6M last quarter .. where do you get the non sense that it costs more to make .. this will fetch $300M if sold
what chapter 11 !!! none sense ..
they can monetize MTC and Roche Melanoma for more than their total debt !!!
might have an easy double here .. my thought is that
MTC around $300M
Cobi for melanoma around $500M
$200M net debt exiting 2014 as a smaller company
So, $3 a share seems on low side and you have other things
A double here and with all bashing going on tonight, confirms bullish view
what kind of logic is that? you think share price is indicative of the long value of a company?
It is indicative of what a small portion of investor think it is worth NOW
1. Cabo for MTC
2. Cobi for melanoma
3. Patents and drug in trial (RCC, HCC, Roche work for other Cobi indications )
4. Net debt existing 2014
low end market cap = 300 + 700 + 100 - 200 = 900m or $4.5 !!!
sure you can .. that is 7% interest and fair considering uncertainties in a stocks long term earning power
you can justify 20 in an up mood .. that is a 100% difference in valuation ... So, markets depend on mood of investors and hard earned money needed in short term can not be put on something so volatile
What value is left for EXEL?
1. Cabo for MTC ~ 500m
2. Cobi for melanoma ~ 700-1200m
3. Patents and drug in trial (RCC, HCC, etc) ~ 100-200m
So value ~ (500+700+100) =1300m
Take 50% discount:
Value = (500+700+100)*50%=650m
5- Net debt at end of 2014 = $200M
50% discount on value (650M) minus debt = 450m or $2.25 a share
No discount on value (1300M) minus debt = 1100m or $5.5 a share
burn to $25M a quarter or $100M a year. They will exit 2014 with $250M cash and $80M of that is restricted. They will exit 2015 with $150M cash, $450M debt and will know result of another ph3, and two approved drug
40M short will support a rise in stock price in the short term as they have made much profit and some will take the money and some are hedge on converts so they will stay in