Completely agree with you. If you read my post below from October 9th, I mentioned that very fact. I still use charting because instead of buying because I am taking a "calculated risk". There are always wildcards in charting but overall if I'm making money 3 out of every 4 timed, those are fantastic odds for me. Unfortunately for OIBR however, it's loaded with wildcards like a Portuguese Soap Opera. Which is why I'm leary of getting back into the stock despite its current value.
You asked me a question and I provided an honest answer to it. In regards to your criticism of chart reading, if investing was as logical as you presume it to be then how come everyone that is logical isn't a millionaire?
Hi Casadipace, I'm not sure of the answer to that question. Its not so much the price point which will determine my entry point, it's more of the chart patterns that will. Right now the dmi- is high, but the ADX is very low. This is not the pattern which suits a buy from me. If the ADX was higher then it would have more of my attention. But if I was in the stock now I would wait it out. To be honest, I may not enter the stock at all due to the amount of drama in it despite its current value.
My decisions are based on chart patterns. So I would say no for now. If I was in it, I wouldn't sell it either.
Let me also say that I initially lost money after buying at $0.67, but I sold at $0.72 a few weeks ago. So overall I actually made money. The DMI+ was not stable and I saw a minor sell off on the horizon. I honestlysaw no indication that it would go below $0.60 but again, charting can never anticipate the failures of management.
If anyone takes the time to read through this post, track the stock price after my comments, you'll see how accurate the method that I've used to track the stock has been. Look at the post where I called the bottom around $0.52/share. My posts also get a lot of negativity simply because someone has money invested into it and don't want to believe me when I say the stock will drop.
I initially lost money in OIBR after I bought at $0.67 because of the RioForte scandal. Chart reading cannot anticipate the stupidity of management. Take a look at the stock today as well, this man Zeinal Bava, who caused the stock to tank after revealing the RioForte deal has now caused it to tank again with his departure. This guy by himself has caused a great deal of anxiety for investors. His departure is good news. The less wild cards like him, the easier it will be for chart readers like me to predict the outcome of this stock.
That said, I would caution those moving into this stock today as an opportunity. You may get a bounce back tomorrow or next week, but it's not a risk I would take right now. Rest assured though that the value of the stock is a good one but one that may not be realized by the markets for a while. It may still go lower at this point.
My advice to him (not you) was that if he placed a bet today I don't think it would've been a bad one because most of the charting indicators I used said this is a buy with the exception of the RSI.
DMI+/- crossed today on higher than normal volume. ADX has rolled over. But RSI is not at oversold territory...it's around 50 which is normal. If you entered today I don't think you made a bad decision. Just know with RSI at normal it can still go lower. Keep an eye on the 3 year weekly chart also. That will be the best indicator if you're in this thing for the long haul. RSI on that chart is fairly low. After this week it'll be likely that the DMI+ on that chart will begin to head upward which may potentially stabilizing the upward trend of the ADX to around 45.
Like I said, I purchased 10000 shares and the stock went from 0.67 to 0.76 (closed lower). Then after Moody's, S&P and other analysts downgraded the stock, it started trending lower. This is all a fact, I'm not asking anyone to believe me. I've grown unbelievably tired at all of your criticisms (particularly you casadipace and jojowhatever) even after I've been doing this out of kindness. What you guys consider voodoo is actually your lack of understanding of charting. There are many books published on the topic. I would highly recommend you read them. But it's obvious that my charity on these posts is not welcomed or appreciated. Therefore I bid you all farewell and good luck, this will be my final post.
Good luck to you in particular nomadinx. My advice to you is don't make decisions too early. Wait for the DMI+/- to cross on higher volume. This will be the best entry point. Of course, as long as Portugal Telecom doesn't throw another debt bomb into the equation! Later buddy.
ADX began rolling over. DMI+/- was crossing over on higher volume. RSI was less than 20. Shortly after the purchase the stock went up 10% but collapsed after Moodys, S&P, etc... downgraded Oi due to the PT/RioForte transaction.
How many times do I have to repeat that I purchased the stock before the PT/RioForte scandal? I bought it because the DMI+/- crossed with DMI+ on the rise, the ADX rolled over, RSI was low, volume was high. I actually made money up until the scandal occurred. After that the charts completely changed course.
On a micro level yes. If I was purchasing a business that I physically possessed, I would consider all of those aspects prior to purchase so as to make sure the business functioned at a sustainable profit. However, when you factor in hundreds of millions of other potential owners, the game changes. People change ownership of the company every day. That amount is quantifiable.
If it were predictable that a stock like Apple which has no debt, tons of cash, and a great business model were to go up in value based solely on its financial statements, then why does the stock price drop at times if its so predictable? The answer is that it's not predictable based solely on financial statements. It definitely is 4 times of the year when earnings are released, but in between that time the game is different. This is where charting can be used to help an investor make a "calculated risk". Charting is by no means perfect, and like I've experienced with OIBR, you can still get burned when things like the PT/Rioforte scandal occur that charting can never predict. But moreover, charting has given me the confidence to look at patterns for better or worse and treat the stock market like a game that can be played and can be won.
I have no idea what would happen should the merger fall through. Whatever the case, I would expect a significant move in the charts.
Please don't take this the wrong way or anything, but your argument has nothing useful to provide me. It is apparent to me that you have no idea how charting works and you don't wish to learn because you seem very set in your own ways. Why do my posts bother you so much that you feel the need to try and rip apart anything that you don't understand? If your way works for you then great. Post a topic on here and share your thoughts with people if you wish.
Also I think I have been very fair on sharing my information. Even though I own the stock I saw patterns that suggest it wasn't heading upward after the PT/RioForte scandal and I shared this information with folks here that may have looked at the scandal as an opportunity to get in low. Since then the stock has dropped over 20% and I saw patterns in the charts that suggested this trend.
We speak the same language, nice! So you entered at .55? I still would've waited for DMI+/- to cross no matter how long it took. But you're right, negative is around 33 and positive is around 8. That's a huge void to fill which is why good news is essential.
I don't know. Maybe because it's a Brazilian company and not an American company? But then again Brazil's Ibovespa Index was also up today. Sorry I don't have the answer to this.
DMI- has not touched the ADX in a few business days. This is good news. ADX is around 45 and DMI- is around 33. Unless the stock price tanks, I don't see the DMI- or ADX crossing anytime soon. This is a good sign and it may be the indicator that we've hit bottom or close to it. Moreover, the DMI of the 3 year weekly chart and the 1 year daily chart look similar in pattern. This is another good sign. 3 year the RSI is around 18-19 which is fantastic, but again I have no idea how the merger will effect this. The 1 year RSI is around 30 which is alright. The stock just needs something good in the news to reverse the pattern of DMI- and DMI+. The next few weeks will be pivotal. I will let you guys know if I make any trades.
Once again I'm glad that your method works for you. If you actually gave specific details as to why charting via DMI, RSI, ADX, volume, MACD, etc., we're incorrect then I would actually be willing to listen to what you have to say. Instead, you're attempting to discard the whole study of charting itself simply because you feel that your way is the correct way. It's almost as if you're offended by the method. When it's your criticism vs my 500% gains, I'm going to go with the 500% gains because only one of those options will make my life better.
No I was not saying cause and effect. I was saying that positive news was needed, however since the activities of the merged company have not been transparent to their investors (Portugal Telecom not disclosing a massive $1.2 billion bad investment) it is difficult for investors to place their trust in a company which has deceived them in the past. I'm not saying I'm right. Frankly I don't even care. I just follow the charts. DMI- is above DMI+ and below ADX. RSI is low. I see no reason to sell nor buy. My theories as to what could change the patterns are just speculation.
Hey I want the stock to go up just as much as you do. But I leave praying and hoping for spirituality, not the stock market.