It was mostly short covering rally & the option
market was not in a panic.
Wait until Sept-Oct.....the most volatile period
of the year. Beware.
I'm thinking Brent $36, WTIC $32.....but anything less
ispossible. Gotta see CL options in detail.
Right now, refinery rate is about 95%.....In Oct, it usually
drops to 85% area. Sept-Oct is hardest to trade. Market
may bottom on next CL option expiration 9-22 or 10-15
ADX curve is still up & has to reverse & hit bottom to
open long position. I'm buying CLZ16 then.
Meanwhile, I'll daytrade until market bottoms.
No big deal.....You should have about $20K & that
should be more than enough.
I lost about $59 only because I put tight stops.
The key to avoiding big losses is to put tight stops.
Ever time you get stopped out, you only loss small
moneys & you can open new positions.
In an year, you'll be a rich man when crude
I was thinking of a small bounce up too....
Usually happens going into Labor Day.
The fall is getting less & less everyday.
This week's API could be deciding factor.
Fred, as you know, Sept-Oct is most volatile
for crude.....Oct maintenance season could
be a time for opportunity.
Crude should rally going to New Year.
I don't know much about the Fed, but heard they'll
up in Sept & Dec.
Right now, I'm looking at gold & XLE for guidance.
Also china. Too early to open long term positions.
In a down market like this, the best way to make money going long
is by daytrading.
Just my 2 cents.
I agree with you...the trend down is very strong right now.
Don't see it improving in coming months.
Either production goes down or demand rises.
Can't depend demand to rise & $50 can become
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Because it takes time to reach market....something like
H2-2016. Won't come all at once.
But, crude will slowly decay to find bottom.
After 7-04, crude hardly rises without war/hurricane.
But the problem is it's going to need
more money & the EURO took a hit.
EURUSD down 92 pips right now.
The problem is CL futures is dropping like a rock from
$53 to $51.45 as of 2am NYT....I saw an article on Reuters
a deal is almost made.
I do think a deal will be made by Monday evening.
I think there will be an agreement perhaps today or
in the near future.
Also, even without agreement, I seriously doubt
crude will rise after summer peak driving season.
Maintenance & correction coming in Sept-Oct.