2013 Latin American Oil Production Prospects: Marcus Sequeira, Latin America Oil and Gas Equity Research Analyst for Deutsche Bank (DB) Interviews with the Wall Street Transcript

Wall Street Transcript

67 WALL STREET, New York - January 7, 2013 - The Wall Street Transcript has just published its Oil & Gas: Refining, Independent and Major Integrated Report offering a timely review of the sector to serious investors and industry executives. This special feature contains expert industry commentary through in-depth interviews with public company CEOs, Equity Analysts and Money Managers. The full issue is available by calling (212) 952-7433 or via The Wall Street Transcript Online.

Topics covered: Capital Expenditures and Consolidation Activity - Refining Crude Price Differentials - Frontier Exploration and Development - Shale Drilling Capital Expenditures - Oil and Gas Price Divergence - Oil Price Expectations - LNG Global Pricing Differentials

Companies include: Petroleo Brasileiro (PBR), YPF S.A. (YPF), Petrobras Energ?a Participacio (PZE), Ultrapar Holdings Inc. (UGP), Tenaris SA (TS) and many others...

In the following excerpt from the Oil & Gas: Refining, Independent and Major Integrated Report, the Latin American Oil & Gas expert for Deutsche Bank discusses the regional outlook for investors:

TWST: Can you begin with a brief introduction to your coverage, including some of the specific names you follow?

Mr. Sequeira: My coverage is of the Latin America energy sector, in Brazil and Argentina. So I cover the E&Ps in Brazil, the integrated oil company Petrobras (PBR); and in Argentina, I cover the integrateds, YPF (YPF) and Petrobras Argentina (PZE).

TWST: Broadly speaking, you are neutral on the energy sector. What factors are contributing to that view, and what are the key changes that would make you more positive on the sector?

Mr. Sequeira: First, the macro view is that, with the economy at this stage, there is uncertainty with regards to how sustainable the current oil prices are, so if we have weaker economic recovery or if we have even a worse scenario we could see energy prices moving down. So for investors at this point, there is always the concern about buying the commodity names at a peak oil price. With regards to more specific reasons, I would say that in Brazil when you look at the E&Ps, most of them are practically preoperational and therefore there's a huge amount of risk. In Petrobras, there is a good amount of government interference which is not new, but I don't think things will improve next year.

So what we are favoring now are the best quality names, and in Brazil we see Ultrapar (UGP), which is a downstream company, as the top country pick. It is primarily a fuel-distribution company which also produces specialty chemicals and has fuel-storage facilities. Among the E&Ps in Brazil, we like Queiroz Galvao (QGEP3.SA), which relative to the other E&Ps is safer because of its cash flow generation, cash position - safe balance sheet - and assets with high impact potential. What will change in my views? In Brazil, I think that for the E&Ps obviously if they were to make an important discovery, that would make a big change in my views for the stocks that I don't like, but mostly for HRT (HRTP3.SA) than OGX (OGXP3.SA), because of balance sheet issues. For Petrobras, I think that the lowering of government interference would be a turning point for the stock.

TWST: Where in Latin America do you see the best opportunities for E&P, and which of your companies are best positioned in those spots?

For more of this interview and many others visit the Wall Street Transcript - a unique service for investors and industry researchers - providing fresh commentary and insight through verbatim interviews with CEOs, portfolio managers and research analysts. This special issue is available by calling (212) 952-7433 or via The Wall Street Transcript Online.

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