Analyst: Quiet storm season hurts Beacon Roofing

Analyst sees quiet hurricane season hurting Beacon Roofing

• On 10:55 am EDT, Tuesday October 27, 2009

HARTFORD, Conn. (AP) -- The quiet hurricane season is bad for business at Beacon Roofing Supply Inc., and two branches extending its reach into new markets won't do much for sales, an analyst said Tuesday.

KeyBanc analyst Ivan Marcuse said the "overall lack of storm activity" will make it harder to compare the first and second quarters of 2010 with the same quarters of 2009, which "benefited from strong storm-related demand."

"Up until now the Atlantic hurricane season has been uneventful, to say the least, for the East Coast and Gulf of Mexico regions," he said in a client note.

Only Tropical Storm Claudette, which hit Fort Walton Beach, Fla., in August, made landfall, "and that storm was hardly strong enough to cause any significant damage relative to a major hurricane," Marcuse said.

However, he said a few hail storms will help demand.

Beacon Roofing, based in Peabody, Mass., recently acquired branches in Albuquerque, N.M., and Oklahoma City, Okla., from a distressed seller for an undisclosed amount, Marcuse said.

He estimates the branches will generate $2 million to $4 million in sales.

Bacon Roofing also entered the Denver market with a new branch that Marcuse said will benefit in the near term from recent storm damage, but will likely be used as a platform to grow organically in the region in the long term.

He cut his 2010 estimate to 90 cents per share from $1.05 and reduced his 2011 earnings estimate to $1.15 per share from $1.20. Marcuse rates Beacon Roofing "Hold."

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect, on average, that Beacon Roofing will earn $1.05 for 2010 and $1.16 for 2011.

Shares rose 35 cents, or 2.4 percent, to $15.21 in morning trading.

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