Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. Third Quarter Earnings Sneak Peek

The Cheat Sheet

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. will unveil its latest earnings on Thursday, October 20, 2011. Chipotle Mexican Grill develops and operates fast-casual, fresh Mexican food restaurants in 35 states throughout the United States, the District of Columbia, and Ontario, Canada.

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. Earnings Preview Cheat Sheet

Wall St. Earnings Expectations: The average estimate of analysts is for profit of $1.85 per share, a rise of 21.7% from the company’s actual earnings for the same quarter a year ago. During the past three months, the average estimate has moved down from $1.88. Between one and three months ago, the average estimate moved down. It has been unchanged at $1.85 during the last month. For the year, analysts are projecting net income of $6.80 per share, a rise of 20.6% from last year.

Past Earnings Performance: Last quarter, the company missed estimates by 9 cents, coming in at profit of $1.59 per share versus a mean estimate of net income of $1.68 per share. In the first quarter, the company beat estimates by 3 cents.

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Wall St. Revenue Expectations: On average, analysts predict $582.8 million in revenue this quarter, a rise of 22.2% from the year ago quarter. Analysts are forecasting total revenue of $2.25 billion for the year, a rise of 22.3% from last year’s revenue of $1.84 billion.

Analyst Ratings: Analysts seem relatively indifferent about Chipotle Mexican Grill with 13 of 22 analysts surveyed maintaining a hold rating.

A Look Back: In the second quarter, profit rose 9% to $50.7 million ($1.59 a share) from $46.5 million ($1.46 a share) the year earlier, but fell short analyst expectations. Revenue rose 22.4% to $571.6 million from $466.8 million.

Key Stats:

The company has enjoyed double-digit year-over-year percentage revenue growth for the past four quarters. Over that span, the company has averaged growth of 23.6%, with the biggest boost coming in the fourth quarter of the last fiscal year when revenue rose 24.5% from the year earlier quarter.

The company has seen net income rise in three straight quarters. Net income rose 22.6% in the first quarter and 47% in the fourth quarter of the last fiscal year.

Competitors to Watch: McDonald’s Corporation , Good Times Restaurants Inc. , Carrols Restaurant Group, Inc. , Tim Hortons Inc. , Yum! Brands, Inc. , Jack in the Box Inc. , Panera Bread Company , Nathan’s Famous, Inc. , Wendy’s Arby’s Group Inc. , Starbucks Corporation , Sonic Corporation and Darden Restaurants .

Stock Price Performance: During August 18, 2011 to October 14, 2011, the stock price had risen $36.30 (12.8%) from $284.50 to $320.80. It saw one of its worst periods between December 17, 2010 and December 28, 2010 when shares fell for seven-straight days, falling 7.6% (-$17.98) over that span. The stock price saw one of its best stretches over the last year between March 22, 2011 and April 1, 2011 when shares rose for nine-straight days, rising 12.3% (+$30.11) over that span. Shares are up $108.14 (+50.9%) year to date.

(Source: Xignite Financials)

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