Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. Fourth Quarter Earnings Sneak Peek

The Cheat Sheet

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. will unveil its latest earnings on Wednesday, February 1, 2012. Chipotle Mexican Grill develops and operates fast-casual, fresh Mexican food restaurants in 35 states throughout the United States, the District of Columbia, and Ontario, Canada.

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. Earnings Preview Cheat Sheet

Wall St. Earnings Expectations: The average estimate of analysts is for profit of $1.82 per share, a rise of 23.8% from the company’s actual earnings for the same quarter a year ago. During the past three months, the average estimate has moved up from $1.80. Between one and three months ago, the average estimate moved up. It has risen from $1.81 during the last month. For the year, analysts are projecting net income of $6.82 per share, a rise of 20.9% from last year.

Past Earnings Performance: The company topped estimates last quarter after missing forecasts the quarter prior. In the third quarter, it reported profit of $1.90 per share against a mean estimate of net income of $1.85 per share. In the second quarter, it missed forecasts by 9 cents.

Investing Insights: Will the iPad 3 Be the Next Catalyst for Apple’s Stock?

Wall St. Revenue Expectations: Analysts are projecting a rise of 22.3% in revenue from the year-earlier quarter to $590.2 million.

Analyst Ratings: Analysts are bullish on Chipotle Mexican Grill as 11 analysts rate it as a buy, two rate it as a sell and 10 rate it as a hold.

A Look Back: In the third quarter, profit rose 25.3% to $60.4 million ($1.90 a share) from $48.2 million ($1.52 a share) the year earlier, exceeding analyst expectations. Revenue rose 24.1% to $591.9 million from $476.9 million.

Key Stats:

The company has enjoyed double-digit year-over-year percentage revenue growth for the past four quarters. Over that span, the company has averaged growth of 23.8%, with the biggest boost coming in the fourth quarter of the last fiscal year when revenue rose 24.5% from the year earlier quarter.

The company has seen net income rise in three straight quarters. Net income rose 9% in the second quarter and 22.6% in the first quarter.

Competitors to Watch: McDonald’s Corporation , Good Times Restaurants Inc. , Carrols Restaurant Group, Inc. , Tim Hortons Inc. , Yum! Brands, Inc. , Jack in the Box Inc. , Panera Bread Company , Nathan’s Famous, Inc. , Wendy’s Arby’s Group Inc. , Starbucks Corporation , Sonic Corporation and Darden Restaurants .

Stock Price Performance: During November 28, 2011 to January 26, 2012, the stock price had risen $56.26 (18.2%) from $309.55 to $365.81. The stock price saw one of its best stretches over the last year between March 22, 2011 and April 1, 2011 when shares rose for nine-straight days, rising 12.3% (+$30.11) over that span. It saw one of its worst periods between December 12, 2011 and December 19, 2011 when shares fell for six-straight days, falling 6.6% (-$22.45) over that span.

(Company fundamentals by Xignite Financials. Earnings estimates provided by Zacks)

Investing Insights: Will the iPad 3 Be the Next Catalyst for Apple’s Stock?

To contact the reporter on this story: Derek Hoffman at

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Damien Hoffman at

View Comments (3)