Credit Suisse Industry Analyst Calls For "Both The Container And Tanker Sectors" To Be Near Cyclical Bottom

• On 6:53 pm EDT, Monday October 5, 2009

67 WALL STREET, New York - October 5, 2009 - The Wall Street Transcript has just published its Transportation and Logistics Report offering a timely review of the sector to serious investors and industry executives. This 81 page feature contains expert industry commentary through in-depth interviews with public company CEOs, Equity Analysts and Money Managers. The full issue is available by calling (212) 952-7433 or via The Wall Street Transcript Online.

Topics covered: China Export Tax -- Overcapacity in the Shipping Industry -- Market Balance -- Traffic Flow -- Asia-Pacific Region -- Import/Export Traffic -- Beneficiaries of Financial Strength -- Terminating Markets -- International Business -- Tanker Companies Versus Dry Bulk Companies -- Chinese Stimulus -- Real Demand Versus Stimulus Demand -- Monitoring Potential Acquisitions -- Automobile Industry -- Demand in Emerging Countries -- Falling Demand -- Future Oversupply -- Growth of Fleets -- Pickups in Infrastructure Spending -- Navigating the Downturn -- Supply & Demand -- Chinese Cell Phones -- Mobile Phone Market Growth -- Future Growth -- Stimulus Programs -- Temporary Boosts -- Inventory Stabilization -- Affects of Declines in Passenger Flights -- Capacity of Passenger Aircraft -- Improvement in Volumes -- Pricing and Margins -- Restructuring -- Forms of Consolidation -- Investing in Infrastructure -- Wage Concessions -- Railroad Expansion

Companies include: Diana Shipping (DSX); Star Bulk Carriers (SBLK); Nordic American Tankers (NAT); Overseas Shipholding Group (OSG); General Maritime (GMR); Federal Express (FDX); UPS (UPS); Forward Air (FWRD); Expeditors International (EXPD); Express-1; Tsakos Energy Navigation (TNP); Navios (NM); Vale (VALE); Excel (EXM); Teekay (TK); DryShips (DRYS); UTi Worldwide (UTIW); Old Dominion (ODFL); Arkansas Best (ABFS); J.B. Hunt (JBHT); Con-way (CNW); Atlas Air (AAWW); Air Transport Services Group (ATSG); Norfolk Southern (NSC); Union Pacific (UNP); CSX (CSX); Canadian National Railway (CNI); C.H. Robinson (CHRW); Kuehne and Nagel; Deutsche Post; YRC Worldwide (YRCW); Dynamex (DDMX); Ryder ®

In the following brief excerpt from just one of the 7 interviews in the 81 page report, the Credit Suisse equity analyst discusses the outlook for the sector and for investors.

Gregory Lewis is a Senior Research Analyst covering marine transportation at Credit Suisse. He joined Credit Suisse in April 2007. Previously he was an equity research analyst covering ocean shipping and oil service industries for Fortis Bank. He also worked as an engineer for a US naval contractor and for multiple engineering consulting firms. He holds a BS degree in Ocean Engineering and is a Chartered Financial Analyst.

TWST: Shipping is a historically cyclical business. Where are we in the cycle?

Mr. Lewis: Indeed shipping is a highly cyclical business. However in, answering your question about where we are in the cycle, it depends on which sub-sector of the maritime industry we are discussing. Across the maritime industry, there are three major sub-sectors that I will focus on today. Those being the dry bulk sector, the tanker sector, and the container shipping sector. While it is difficult to know where we are in the cycle until we look back historically, based on current freight rates, both the container and tanker sectors look to be near their cycle troughs, while the dry bulk sector looks to be near mid-cycle. Turning to asset prices, the containership asset values look to be near trough levels, while both dry bulk and tanker asset values are somewhere around mid-cycle levels.

TWST: What's the difference, just what they haul?

Mr. Lewis: Yes exactly, and as such they have different demand drivers, different points of origin and different end users. While all three sectors are tied to global GDP growth, we only focus on global GDP growth for the container shipping industry. The container shipping industry primarily involves the transportation of consumer and industrial finished goods. The major container shipping trade routes are the Far East to Europe, Far East to North America, and Intra-Asia. Shifting gears to the tanker sector we focus on global oil demand growth. The tanker sector involves the transporation of crude oil and petroleum products. The major exporting regions are the Middle East, West Africa, and South America and the major importing regions are North America, Europe, and Asia. Lastly, the dry bulk sector involves the transportation of dry bulk commodities (primarily iron ore, coal, grain, and other minor bulks). We focus on global and emerging market industrial production as the primary demand drivers. The major exporting regions of dry bulk commodities are Australia, South America, North America and South Africa. The major importing regions are China, Other Asia, and Europe.

The Wall Street Transcript is a unique service for investors and industry researchers - providing fresh commentary and insight through verbatim interviews with CEOs and research analysts. This 81 page special issue is available by calling (212) 952-7433 or via The Wall Street Transcript Online .

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