Don't Be Fooled - Here's The Real Reason For This Week's Meltdown

ETFguide

A picture says more than a thousand words and a chart explains more than a thousand analysts' opinions (literally).Profitable investing depends on the credibility of your research sources. This article will contrast the one chart that's predicted every recent turn weeks in advance and conventional Wall Street wisdom.Wall Street 'Wisdom'Wall Street made us believe that last Thursday's 3% rally across the board - Dow Jones (DJI: ^DJI), S&P (SNP: ^GSPC), Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^IXIC), banks (NYSEArca: KBE - News), financials (NYSEArca: XLF - News), technology (NYSEArca: XLK - News), you name it - was because of a comprehensive European (NYSEArca: VGK - News) debt deal that would solve all problems.Here are some of the headlines that reflect Wall Street's 'wisdom:'Forbes: 'Europe three-point debt salvation plan lets bulls free'Breakout: 'Don't fight the rally: Stocks soar after Europe deal'Reuters: 'Wall Street soars on hopes EU finally has a fix'ETFTrends: 'S&P 500 ETFs rally over the 200-day average opens door for year-end rally' (more about the significance of the 200-day average in a moment)Zachs: 'S&P 1,350 is not a stretch'Even Greece's Prime Minister George Papandreou was moved to confirm that: 'The debt is absolutely sustainable now. Greece can settle its accounts from the past now, once and for all.'Today, news that Greece could default on its debt and drop out of the European currency hit the fan.Trend Following Technicals Turn UpIn all fairness, trend following technicals did turn up. It was even possible to interpret the market's push as a technical breakout. The October 30 ETF Profit Strategy update acknowledged and warned that: 'Trend following technicals, momentum, sentiment and seasonality suggest higher prices. But trend following technicals can be treacherous and we'll do well to view this rally with suspicion.'In addition to just being suspicious, the update recommended to go short if the S&P falls below 1,270. S&P 1,270 is not just some random number, it was crucial support. The chart below, featured in the October 14 ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter, shows why:The Most Reliable RoadmapThe chart shows several distinct parallels between the 2007/08 market top and today.                        

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1) In 2007/08 the S&P touched the yellow trend line twice before slicing through it. The same occurred in 2011.2) A break below the yellow trend line in 2008 led to a freefall decline. The same occurred on August 2, 2011. On July 31, the ETF Profit Strategy update warned that: 'A break below the 200-day SMA and the trend line may trigger panic selling.'3) The initial 2008 low was followed by sideways trading and another low. The same occurred in 2011. The August 9 low at S&P 1,102 was followed by another low on October 4 at 1,077.The October 2 ETF Profit Strategy update expected this low and foretold that: 'The ideal market bottom would see the S&P dip below 1,088 intraday, followed by a strong recovery and a close above 1,088.'4) This low was followed by a retest of the yellow trend line in 2008. The equivalent 2011 yellow trend line ran through S&P 1,270.The October 2 update stated that: 'From a technical point of view this counter trend rally should end somewhere around 1,275 - 1,300.'The October 14 update warned that it wouldn't 'feel' right to short the S&P above 1,270: 'By the time the S&P gets to rendezvous with the yellow trend lines, optimism (at least to a certain degree) will be back and the media will probably tell us that a larger European debt crisis has been averted. It will take a strong contrarian conviction to short the markets at that time.'Of course there's more to investing than blindly following a previous pattern that may or may not come true.But as long as other research components such as seasonality and sentiment confirmed what the 2008 outline predicted, there was no reason to doubt it.The Bottom Might Fall OutBased solely on the 2008 script, stocks are due for much lower prices. However, an immediate drop may be muted or postponed by strong November and October seasonality. That's why we will be using important support/resistance levels to manage our short positions (and profits) carefully.The ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter highlights important support/resistance levels around current prices and provides a detailed short, mid and long-term forecast. Alternatively, you can continue to follow the media's haphazard whack-a-mole approach to investing.

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