Positive Surprises Lead to Estimate Hikes

By Dirk Van Dijk
On 1:00 am EST, Wednesday November 4, 2009

Key Points:

Earnings Surprise Ratio (# beat/# miss) at 5.49, almost double normal
Median Earnings Surprise 6.67%, very strong
Year over year Earnings Growth ratio (# Pos Growth/# Neg Growth) at 0.69
Sales Surprise Ratio at 1.38
Sales Growth Ratio at just 0.37
Total Net Income for S&P 500 reported so far is 19.0%, below what those same 351 firms reported a year ago and 11.0% above what they earned in the 2Q09
Total S&P 500 Revenues reported so far down 13.7% year over year, up 2.9% from 2Q09
2009 Earnings Revisions ratio for full S&P 500 up to 3.05, up from 2.48 last week
2010 ratio at 2.14, down slightly from 2.17 last week
S&P500 expected to earn $566.5 billion in 2008, $704.7 billion in 2010
Bottom Up estimates: $61.62 for 2009, $76.70 for 2010
Top Down estimates: $54.38 for 2009, $70.05 for 2010

Welcome to the new Earnings Trends. We have decided to start focusing our analysis of the S&P 500 based on Zacks' own sector groupings rather than the S&P GICS sectors. There are 16 Zacks sectors and only 10 GICS sectors, so the new groupings will result in better granularity of the data. The old way simply grouped too many very different companies together.

In addition, we for the first time are presenting top-line as well as bottom-line expectations and surprise information. This is very much a work in progress, and we will be adding additional information, tables and perhaps even some graphs over the next few months.

So far, at least relative to expectations, we are off to a fantastic earnings season. With over 70% of reports in, there have been 269 which have exceeded expectations while only 49 have fallen short, a ratio of 5.49. While it is true that most companies will normally try to under-promise and over-deliver, this quarter the beats are beating the misses by about twice the normal margin of 3:1.

Nor have all the surprises only been by a penny or two, but there have been lots of companies that simply crushed the earnings estimates. The median surprise is a very high 7.67%. Over the last five years, a median surprise of about 3.0% has been normal.

Part of the reason is that expectations were set very low going into the earnings season. For most companies, their earnings are still below year-ago levels, just not as far down as people thought they would be. Only 149 firms have posted positive year-over-year growth versus 207, which falls short of year-ago levels, a ratio of 0.72.

The disparity between firms beating estimates but having negative year over year earnings growth is particularly noticeable in Tech, where the earnings surprise ratio is an awesome 9.25. However, the growth ratio (# of firms with positive growth/# of firms with negative growth) is just 0.49. A similar situation, though not quite as extreme, is true for Materials. Staples and Medical have been both growing earnings and beating expectations.

On the top line, it has also been a successful season so far relative to expectations, but in terms of actual year over year growth it has been downright ugly. The total revenues of the 351 firms that have already reported are 13.7% below year-ago levels. A total of 189 firms have reported higher than expected revenues, versus only 137 that have disappointed, for a ratio of 1.38.

On the other hand, only 95 actually had higher sales than a year ago, versus 255 with lower revenues, a ratio of 0.37. Put another way, only 27.1% of all firms reporting so far have had higher sales than a year ago.

In other words, cost-cutting has been the major force driving earnings and earnings surprises. However, the costs to one company are either the revenues of another company or someone’s paycheck, which is then spent to create revenues for firms.

The strategy seems to be working as earnings are coming in much better than expected and analysts have responded by increasing earnings estimates for 2009. The estimate increases are widespread across sectors, with six sectors seeing more than four increases for each cut, while only one sector, Utilities, seeing more cuts than increases.

For the S&P 500 as a whole, the revisions ratio now stands at 3.05, its highest level in over a year and in distinct contrast to earlier in the year when it fell below 0.15 at one point. The better-than-expected earnings are translating into estimate increases for 2010 as well as 2009, with a revisions ratio of 2.14 for next year.

Scorecard & Earnings Surprise

• Reports coming in fast -- 351, or 70.2% of reports in

• Data presented reflects only firms that have reported so far

• Reports so far extremely positive relative to expectations

• Earnings Surprise ratio (#beat/#miss) at 5.49

• Medical almost perfect with a ratio of 28 to 1, Tech strong with a ratio of 9.25

• Median Earnings Surprise 6.67%, a very strong reading

• More than three quarters of reports in for nine sectors

• Year over year Earnings Growth ratio (# Positive Growth/# Negative Growth) at 0.69

• Massive positive surprises in cyclical Construction, Industrial and Discretionary sectors

In evaluating the data presented here, keep the percent reported in mind; for some sectors, the sample size is extremely small. The move to the 16 Zacks sectors means that even when all reports are in, some of the sectors will still have relatively few firms in them. For firms with only a few reports in, the median surprise will be very volatile as new firms are added to the sample.

Overall two small sectors, Conglomerates and Business Services, appear to have the most impressive performance so far this quarter on the surprise front. Among the larger sectors, strong arguments could be made for Staples having the best surprise profile.

In other words, the positive earnings surprises have been widespread. The list of the most impressive surprises is very eclectic and includes Textron (NYSE: TXT - News), Dow Chemical (NYSE: DOW - News), SanDisk (NasdaqGS: SNDK - News), PNC Financial (NYSE: PNC - News) and Peabody Energy (NYSE: BTU - News).

Scorecard & Earnings Surprise
Income Surprises	Yr/Yr Growth	Surprise Median	% Reported	EPS Surp Pos	EPS Surp Neg	# Grow Pos	# Grow Neg
Consumer Staples	3.52%	10.87	62.22%	25	3	17	11
Consumer Discretionary	-18.40%	10.16	66.67%	15	3	3	17
Retail/Wholesale	-1.58%	4.88	46.67%	15	4	10	11
Medical	2.74%	5.32	75.56%	28	1	27	7
Auto	-47.54%	0.00	83.33%	2	2	1	4
Basic Materials	-47.40%	8.99	95.00%	14	3	4	15
Industrial Products	-28.33%	17.99	72.73%	16	0	8	8
Construction	91.11%	46.11	54.55%	5	1	3	3
Conglomerates	-13.63%	16.41	88.89%	8	0	0	8
Computer and Tech	-9.72%	7.18	67.47%	37	4	18	37
Aerospace	-61.63%	7.76	90.00%	7	2	4	5
Oils and Energy	-61.89%	5.20	60.00%	17	6	2	22
Finance	48.16%	7.69	78.21%	47	12	28	33
Utilities	2.67%	3.94	75.68%	20	7	16	12
Transportation	-36.29%	3.64	90.00%	7	1	1	8
Business Service	-16.67%	11.11	77.78%	6	0	1	6
S&P	-19.33%	6.67	70.20%	269	49	143	207

Sales Surprises

• Sales Surprise Ratio at 1.38

• Staples missing on sales even as they beat on earnings

• Tech looks terrific -- 3:1 positive sales surprise ratio

• Sales Growth Ratio at just 0.37

• Most Tech firms have declining sales, but less of a drop than expected

• Only 27.1% of all firms reporting so far have higher revenues than last year

Sales Surprises
Sales Surprises	Yr/Yr Growth	Surprise Median	% Reported	Sales Surp Pos	Sales Surp Neg	# Grow Pos	# Grow Neg
Consumer Staples	-2.47%	-0.40	62.22%	11	16	8	20
Consumer Discretionary	-12.18%	0.92	66.67%	13	7	3	17
Retail/Wholesale	0.53%	0.21	46.67%	12	9	11	10
Medical	3.34%	1.18	75.56%	26	8	26	7
Auto	-22.59%	0.87	83.33%	4	1	0	5
Basic Materials	-28.75%	0.14	95.00%	10	9	1	18
Industrial Products	-23.47%	0.13	72.73%	8	8	0	16
Construction	-27.39%	1.88	54.55%	4	2	0	6
Conglomerates	-16.37%	0.74	88.89%	5	3	0	8
Computer and Tech	-4.50%	2.40	67.47%	42	14	10	46
Aerospace	4.90%	-1.44	90.00%	3	6	7	2
Oils and Energy	-40.02%	0.42	60.00%	14	10	2	22
Finance	9.02%	1.37	78.21%	26	11	23	38
Utilities	-17.14%	-14.46	75.68%	5	23	2	26
Transportation	-19.45%	-0.50	90.00%	2	7	0	9
Business Service	-9.29%	0.34	77.78%	4	3	2	5
S&P	-13.66%	0.45	70.20%	189	137	95	255

Reported Quarterly Growth: Total Net Income

• Massive 48.2% growth in Financials due to low year-ago base, earnings up 10.9% from 2Q09

• Will be a more extreme issue in the fourth quarter

• Total Net Income for S&P 500 reported so far is 19.3% below what those same 351 firms reported a year ago, 11.0% above what they earned in the 2Q09

• Year-over-year growth sharply negative for Materials and Autos in 3Q, expected to turn very positive in 4Q

Reported Growth: Total Net Income
Income Growth	Sequential Q4/Q3 E	Sequential Q3/Q2 A	Year over Year 3Q 09 A	Year over Year 4Q 09 E	Year over Year 2Q 09 A
Consumer Staples	-15.57%	1.10%	3.52%	-2.43%	10.95%
Consumer Discretionary	4.45%	47.35%	-18.40%	17.17%	-22.73%
Retail/Wholesale	-6.69%	9.97%	-1.58%	9.20%	-5.40%
Medical	-9.19%	5.01%	2.74%	-6.36%	1.06%
Auto	-22.64%	350.00%	-47.54%	955.58%	-89.56%
Basic Materials	-20.20%	50.89%	-47.40%	512.60%	-69.55%
Industrial Products	-23.42%	23.37%	-28.33%	-23.68%	-49.44%
Construction	-300.29%	168.75%	91.11%	63.56%	-64.04%
Conglomerates	-8.82%	-0.75%	-13.63%	-19.45%	-32.45%
Computer and Tech	20.94%	10.55%	-9.72%	19.70%	-20.02%
Aerospace	169.41%	-63.28%	-61.63%	7.08%	-0.86%
Oils and Energy	1.51%	25.93%	-61.89%	-31.46%	-66.97%
Finance	-26.97%	10.90%	48.16%	76.49%	-15.71%
Utilities	-37.18%	41.69%	2.67%	-1.04%	-2.54%
Transportation	4.81%	11.69%	-36.29%	-28.80%	-35.68%
Business Service	2.91%	-2.91%	-16.67%	-13.70%	-17.60%
S&P	-5.24%	11.03%	-19.33%	33.60%	-28.02%

Reported Quarterly Growth: Total Revenues

• Total S&P 500 Revenues down 13.66% year over year, up 2.91% from 2Q09

• Year-over-year revenue expected to turn positive in 4Q with a 0.63% increase

• Consumer Discretionary revenue growth up 9.1% from 2Q09, but down 12.2% from year ago

• Seasonality can greatly affect sequential growth (see the 238.4% sequential growth for retail expected in the 4Q), but the year ago was unusual and may be distorting year-over-year figures

• Four sectors posting positive year-over-year revenue growth so far, 12 sectors negative

Reported Growth: Total Revenues
Sales Growth	Sequential Q4/Q3 E	Sequential Q3/Q2 A	Year over Year 3Q 09 A	Year over Year 4Q 09 E	Year over Year 2Q 09 A
Consumer Staples	-12.33%	1.67%	-2.47%	-10.73%	-3.80%
Consumer Discretionary	2.23%	9.14%	-12.18%	-3.47%	-16.10%
Retail/Wholesale	238.37%	5.59%	0.53%	4.21%	-0.32%
Medical	3.48%	1.21%	3.34%	6.73%	0.96%
Auto	-3.31%	9.47%	-22.59%	-6.98%	-31.80%
Basic Materials	0.26%	5.38%	-28.75%	-3.03%	-34.51%
Industrial Products	1.89%	0.85%	-23.47%	-15.05%	-27.08%
Construction	-7.66%	0.69%	-27.39%	-20.50%	-34.09%
Conglomerates	7.28%	-0.78%	-16.37%	-8.82%	-17.48%
Computer and Tech	7.36%	2.60%	-4.50%	2.70%	-8.34%
Aerospace	7.15%	-2.36%	4.90%	12.94%	2.42%
Oils and Energy	-3.17%	10.36%	-40.02%	-7.73%	-46.55%
Finance	-4.39%	-4.82%	9.02%	27.00%	12.76%
Utilities	17.24%	10.14%	-17.14%	12.35%	-11.72%
Transportation	3.62%	4.35%	-19.45%	-9.81%	-20.90%
Business Service	-0.98%	1.86%	-9.29%	-6.75%	-14.42%
S&P	0.02%	2.91%	-13.66%	0.63%	-16.30%

Annual Total Net Income Growth

• Total S&P 500 Net Income in 2009 expected to be 6.5% below 2008 levels

• Total earnings for the S&P 500 expected to jump 24.4% in 2010, 15.3% further in 2011

• Data for 2011 is still thin, so take with a grain of salt

• Medical and Business Service are only sectors to see positive growth, although Finance is moving from a loss to a profit, and Construction will have a much smaller loss than in 2008

Annual Total Net Income Growth
EPS Growth	2008	2009	2010	2011
Consumer Staples	-2.51%	0.19%	11.57%	6.72%
Consumer Discretionary	6.93%	-10.49%	11.71%	15.38%
Retail/Wholesale	6.95%	-4.63%	12.14%	13.80%
Medical	9.64%	2.22%	8.91%	9.00%
Auto	-288.76%	-62.58%	-247.39%	116.78%
Basic Materials	-12.35%	-63.01%	91.30%	26.13%
Industrial Products	7.49%	-37.61%	17.36%	7.02%
Construction	-628.69%	-91.54%	-559.67%	165.52%
Conglomerates	-10.99%	-33.17%	0.04%	22.22%
Computer and Tech	10.17%	-8.30%	20.61%	-5.80%
Aerospace	13.29%	-16.59%	19.70%	6.75%
Oils and Energy	20.42%	-57.65%	47.80%	24.28%
Finance	-112.75%	-381.83%	54.95%	43.73%
Utilities	5.04%	-2.07%	9.77%	9.39%
Transportation	3.71%	-31.99%	22.84%	19.21%
Business Service	14.05%	1.35%	13.00%	21.31%
S&P	-22.57%	-6.54%	24.40%	15.33%

Annual Total Revenue Growth

• Total S&P 500 Revenue in 2009 expected to be 9.5% below 2008 levels

• Total revenues for the S&P 500 expected to rise 6.3% in 2010

• For 2009, revenues fall more than earnings; for 2010, earnings rise faster than sales -- both mean big margin expansion

• Energy, Autos, Materials and Construction see biggest revenue declines in 2009, but will see largest increases in 2010

Annual Total Revenue Growth
Sales Growth	2008	2009	2010
Consumer Staples	1.74%	-9.07%	2.66%
Consumer Discretionary	5.22%	-9.98%	3.40%
Retail/Wholesale	6.17%	3.81%	5.13%
Medical	8.55%	4.33%	4.76%
Auto	-8.23%	-26.44%	6.81%
Basic Materials	11.50%	-25.32%	12.85%
Industrial Products	10.76%	-16.58%	4.91%
Construction	-25.81%	-22.92%	9.24%
Conglomerates	6.32%	-14.01%	0.08%
Computer and Tech	6.60%	-4.51%	5.74%
Aerospace	2.26%	6.60%	1.83%
Oils and Energy	24.34%	-37.17%	23.63%
Finance	-22.57%	7.98%	-1.81%
Utilities	9.55%	-3.09%	5.60%
Transportation	8.09%	-16.30%	7.11%
Business Service	8.89%	-10.00%	3.81%
S&P	4.27%	-9.49%	6.34%

Revisions: Earnings

The Zacks Revisions Ratio: 2009

• Revisions ratio for full S&P 500 up to 3.05 from 2.31

• Positive Surprises translating to estimate increases for 2009

• Seven sectors seem more than four estimate increases for each cut

• Only Utilities seeing estimates cut on balance

• Utilities and Aerospace continue to see estimates cut

• Ratio of firms with rising to falling mean estimates climbs to 2.01 from 1.90

• Total number of revisions (4 week total) up to 3,638 from 2,434 last week (49.5%)

• Increases up to 2,739 from 1,734 (58.0%), cuts up to 899 from 700 (28.4%)

• Total Revisions activity approaching peak for this earnings season

Analysts are responding to better-than-expected 3Q earnings by raising 2009 estimates almost across the board. Unlike the data presented above for the surprises, the revisions data is for all 500 firms in the index. Total revisions activity has picked up dramatically, and will continue to do so over the next week or two, but we are getting towards peak activity.

The broad increases in earnings estimates seems to reflect a much better short-term outlook for the economy. Note that some of the most cyclical areas such as Retailers, Materials and Autos are seeing a large preponderance of upward over downward earnings revisions, and that most of the firms in those sectors are seeing their consensus estimates increase.

On the other hand, the defensive Staples sector has a very high revisions ratio of 7.43, so it’s not just the cyclicals. Then again, given the great performance by the Staples on the surprise front, a strong estimate revisions performance is not surprising.

The Zacks Revisions Ratio: 2009
Sector	%Ch Current Fiscal Yr Est 4 wks	# Firms Up	# Firms Down	# Ests Up	# Ests Down	Revisions Ratio	Firms up/down
Consumer Staples	1.42	33	7	193	26	7.42	4.71
Consumer Discretionary	5.65	22	6	156	42	3.71	3.67
Retail/Wholesale	2.09	36	7	290	44	6.59	5.14
Medical	0.86	32	12	279	108	2.58	2.67
Auto	1.41	4	2	29	11	2.64	2.00
Basic Materials	7.34	14	6	121	32	3.78	2.33
Industrial Production	11.79	14	4	111	16	6.94	3.50
Construction	0.32	5	4	28	6	4.67	1.25
Conglomerates	1.94	8	0	62	8	7.75	NM
Computer and Technology	4.42	54	14	555	101	5.50	3.86
Aerospace	-4.31	7	3	82	35	2.34	2.33
Oils and Energy	2.5	25	15	232	132	1.76	1.67
Finance	1.47	49	24	471	247	1.91	2.04
Utilities	0.36	19	15	31	49	0.63	1.27
Transportation	0.37	6	4	63	37	1.70	1.50

Revisions: Earnings

The Zacks Revisions Ratio: 2010

• Revisions ratio for full S&P 500 slips to 2.14, from 2.17

• Positive surprises translating to estimate increases for 2010, as well as 2009

• Eclectic mix of strong sectors: Industrials lead, followed by Staples

• Ratio of firms with rising estimate to falling mean estimates at 1.85, down from 1.97 last week

The Zacks Revisions Ratio: 2010
Sector	%Ch Next Fiscal Yr Est - 4 wks	# Firms Up	# Firms Down	# Ests Up	# Ests Down	Revisions Ratio	Firms up/down
Consumer Staples	2.70	30	11	160	26	6.15	2.73
Consumer Discretionary	3.38	22	6	142	37	3.84	3.67
Retail/Wholesale	2.16	35	8	243	49	4.96	4.38
Medical	0.32	26	16	203	146	1.39	1.63
Auto	13.70	4	1	20	7	2.86	4.00
Basic Materials	3.70	13	5	78	27	2.89	2.60
Industrial Products	5.74	14	6	102	11	9.27	2.33
Construction	-1.62	5	4	23	10	2.30	1.25
Conglomerates	1.46	6	2	50	20	2.50	3.00
Computer and Tech	4.83	50	20	458	118	3.88	2.50
Aerospace	-1.56	4	6	46	70	0.66	0.67
Oils and Energy	0.04	22	19	199	142	1.40	1.16
Finance	-1.37	45	31	412	288	1.43	1.45
Utilities	-0.90	12	24	31	54	0.57	0.50
Transportation	-0.03	6	4	39	31	1.26	1.50
Business Service	1.48	7	0	30	10	3.00	NM
S&P	1.74	301	163	2236	1,046	2.14	1.85

Total Income and Share

• S&P500 expected to earn $566.5 billion in 2008, $704.7 billion in 2010

• Excluding Financials, total net income expected to be down 20.7% in 2009

• Energy Share of total earnings plunges to 10.7% in 2009 from 23.7% in 2008

• Finance share of total earnings moves from deficit in 2008 to 11.7% in 2009, 14.7% in 2010

• Medical share of total earnings far exceeds market cap share (index weight)

Total Income and Share
Sector	Total Net Income $ 2008	Total Net Income $ 2009	Total Net Income $ 2010	% Total S&P Earn 2008	% Total S&P Earn 2009	% Total S&P Earn 2010	% Total S&P Mkt Cap
Consumer Staples	$54,720.45	$54,822.18	$61,166.59	9.03%	9.68%	8.68%	8.56%
Consumer Discretionary	$34,583.57	$30,955.68	$34,579.49	5.71%	5.46%	4.91%	5.05%
Retail/Wholesale	$56,337.43	$53,730.25	$60,250.44	9.29%	9.48%	8.55%	9.04%
Medical	$87,658.88	$89,600.74	$97,582.00	14.46%	15.82%	13.85%	10.92%
Auto	($6,224.63)	($2,329.30)	$3,433.13	-1.03%	-0.41%	0.49%	0.72%
Basic Materials	$21,488.79	$7,949.10	$15,206.70	3.55%	1.40%	2.16%	2.50%
Industrial Products	$18,590.85	$11,598.79	$13,612.40	3.07%	2.05%	1.93%	2.26%
Construction	($3,093.90)	($261.82)	$1,203.53	-0.51%	-0.05%	0.17%	0.51%
Conglomerates	$32,723.93	$21,868.18	$21,875.97	5.40%	3.86%	3.10%	3.55%
Computer and Tech	$125,886.32	$115,443.44	$139,235.10	20.77%	20.38%	19.76%	21.79%
Aerospace	$15,635.03	$13,041.18	$15,610.04	2.58%	2.30%	2.21%	1.66%
Oils and Energy	$143,581.39	$60,808.23	$89,876.15	23.69%	10.73%	12.75%	12.03%
Finance	($23,708.03)	$66,817.35	$103,530.49	-3.91%	11.79%	14.69%	15.05%
Utilities	$30,484.75	$29,417.54	$31,884.45	5.03%	5.19%	4.52%	3.76%
Transportation	$13,971.50	$9,502.37	$11,672.97	2.30%	1.68%	1.66%	1.96%
Business Service	$3,513.65	$3,560.94	$4,023.72	0.58%	0.63%	0.57%	0.64%
S&P 500	$606,149.99	$566,524.84	$704,743.17	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%

P/E Ratios

• S&P 500 trading at 17.3x 2009 earnings, or an earnings yield of 5.78%

• Trading at 13.9x 2010, 12.4x 2011 earnings, or earnings yields of 7.19% and 8.06, respectively

• Medical has lowest P/E based on both 2009 and 2010 earnings

P/E Ratios
P/E	2008	2009	2010	2011
Consumer Staples	15.3	15.3	13.7	12.9
Consumer Discretionary	14.3	16	14.3	12.4
Retail/Wholesale	15.7	16.5	14.7	12.9
Medical	12.2	11.9	11	10.1
Auto	NM	NM	20.5	9.4
Basic Materials	11.4	30.8	16.1	12.8
Industrial Products	11.9	19.1	16.3	15.2
Construction	NM	NM	41.3	15.5
Conglomerates	10.6	15.9	15.9	13
Computer and Tech	17	18.5	15.3	16.3
Aerospace	10.4	12.4	10.4	9.7
Oils and Energy	8.2	19.4	13.1	10.5
Finance	NM	22.1	14.2	9.9
Utilities	12.1	12.5	11.6	10.7
Transportation	13.7	20.2	16.5	13.8
Business Service	17.8	17.6	15.5	12.8
S&P 500	16.2	17.3	13.9	12.1