Research and Markets: Bolivia Oil and Gas Report - Q4 2009

• Press Release
• Source: Research and Markets
• On 11:00 am EDT, Monday October 19, 2009

DUBLIN--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Research and Markets (http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/7ed10c/bolivia_oil_and_ga) has announced the addition of the "Bolivia Oil and Gas Report Q4 2009" report to their offering.

This Bolivia Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Bolivia's oil and gas industry.

The new Bolivia Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 0.70% of Latin American regional oil demand by 2013, while providing 0.60% of supply. Latin America regional oil use of 6.93mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 reached 7.95mn b/d in 2008. It should average 7.71mn b/d in 2009 and then rise to around 8.46mn b/d by 2013. Regional oil production was 10.30mn b/d in 2001, and in 2008 averaged 9.85mn b/d. It is set to rise to 10.58mn b/d by 2013. Oil exports are slipping, because demand growth is exceeding the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average 3.37mn b/d. This total had fallen to 1.90mn b/d in 2008 and is forecast to be 2.13mn b/d in 2013. The principal exporters will be Mexico, Venezuela, Ecuador and Brazil.

Bolivian real GDP growth is now forecast by BMI at just 0.8% for 2009, down from 5.7% in 2008. The publisher is assuming average annual 3.3% growth in 2010- 2013. There is increasing state control of oil and gas operations, thanks to government policy that supports re-nationalisation. This means that the burden of development falls heavily on state-owned Yacimientos Petrolíferos Fiscales Bolivianos (YPFB) and its few remaining international oil company (IOC) partners. The publisher is assuming oil and gas liquids production of no more than 64,000b/d by 2013, and the country is expected to pump 58,000b/d in 2009. Consumption beyond 2009 is forecast to increase by around 2.0%-3.0% per annum to 2013, implying demand of 59,000b/d by the end of the forecast period.

Between 2008 and 2018, the publisher is forecasting an increase in Bolivian oil production of just 2.82%, with crude volumes peaking in 2011/12 at 65,000b/d, before falling steadily to 58,000b/d by the end of the 10- year forecast period. Oil consumption between 2008 and 2018 is set to increase by 18.41%, with growth slowing to an assumed 2.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 66,000 b/d by 2018. Gas production is expected to rise gradually, from 13.9bcm in 2008 to a peak of 20.0bcm in 2013/14, before slipping back to 18.4bcm by 2018. With demand growth of 42.33%, this provides export potential falling from a forecast peak of 16.9bcm in 2013 to 14.7bcm by 2018. Details of BMI's 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.

Bolivia now shares seventh place with Ecuador in BMI's Upstream Business Environment rating, four points behind Argentina but well ahead of Mexico. Its proven gas resources and gas reserves-toproduction ratio (RPR) work in the country's favour, but are undermined by the state's renewed control of assets, deteriorating licensing regime and generally unappealing risk environment. The country is at the foot of the league table in BMI's updated Downstream Business Environment rating, reflecting its statecontrolled refining and marketing segment, modest capacity and less competitive environment, offset by a relatively low level of retail site intensity and the country's gas self-sufficiency. Ecuador is immediately ahead of Bolivia in the regional rankings, but a wide gap exists between the two that is unlikely to be bridged by Bolivia at any point in the near future.

Companies Mentioned:

• Yacimientos Petrolíferos Fiscales Bolivianos
• Petróleo Brasileiro (Petrobras)
• Repsol YPF
• Total
• BG
• YPFB Chaco
• Petroandina
• Gazprom
• Transredes
• YPFB Logística Sociedad Anónima

For more information visit http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/7ed10c/bolivia_oil_and_ga

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