Triumph Group Inc. Second Quarter Earnings Sneak Peek

The Cheat Sheet

Triumph Group, Inc. will unveil its latest earnings on Monday, October 31, 2011. Triumph Group designs, engineers, manufactures and sells products for the aviation and aerospace industries.

Triumph Group, Inc. Earnings Preview Cheat Sheet

Wall St. Earnings Expectations: The average estimate of analysts is for net income of $1.04 per share, a rise of 22.4% from the company’s actual earnings for the same quarter a year ago. During the past three months, the average estimate has moved up from $1. Between one and three months ago, the average estimate moved up. It has been unchanged at $1.04 during the last month. Analysts are projecting profit to rise by 29.5% versus last year to $4.39.

Past Earnings Performance: The company topped forecasts last quarter after being in line with estimates the quarter prior. In the first quarter, it reported profit of $1 per share versus a mean estimate of 85 cents. Two quarters ago, it reported net income of 94 cents per share.

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Wall St. Revenue Expectations: On average, analysts predict $840.5 million in revenue this quarter, a rise of 9.3% from the year ago quarter. Analysts are forecasting total revenue of $3.49 billion for the year, a rise of 19.9% from last year’s revenue of $2.91 billion.

Analyst Ratings: Analysts are bullish on this stock with 11 analysts rating it as a buy, none rating it as a sell and none rating it as a hold.

A Look Back: In the first quarter, profit rose more than fourfold to $50.2 million (98 cents a share) from $11.4 million (31 cents a share) the year earlier, exceeding analyst expectations. Revenue rose more than twofold to $845.1 million from $406.4 million.

Key Stats:

The company has enjoyed double-digit year-over-year percentage revenue growth for the past four quarters. Over that span, the company has averaged growth of more than twofold, with the biggest boost coming in the fourth quarter of the last fiscal year when revenue rose more than twofold from the year earlier quarter.

The company has seen net income rise in three straight quarters. Net income rose more than twofold in the fourth quarter of the last fiscal year and more than sevenfold in the third quarter of the last fiscal year.

The company’s gross margin shrank by 3.5 percentage points in the in the first quarter. Revenue rose 108% while cost of sales rose 117.8% to $648.8 million from a year earlier.

Competitors to Watch: Goodrich Corporation , United Technologies Corp. , Honeywell Intl. Inc. , Spirit AeroSystems Hldgs., Inc. , HEICO Corporation , The Boeing Company , T.A.T. Technologies Ltd. , SIFCO Industries, Inc. , Esterline Tech. Corp. , and EDAC Technologies Corp. .

Stock Price Performance: During October 19, 2011 to October 25, 2011, the stock price had risen $4.88 (9.6%) from $51.09 to $55.97. The stock price saw one of its best stretches over the last year between June 24, 2011 and July 7, 2011 when shares rose for nine-straight days, rising 7.7% (+$3.70) over that span. It saw one of its worst periods between April 6, 2011 and April 14, 2011 when shares fell for seven-straight days, falling 7.8% (-$3.40) over that span. Shares are up $11.34 (+25.4%) year to date.

(Source: Xignite Financials)

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