'Yes' Votes On Health Plan Put Some House Dems On Defensive

• David Hogberg And Sean Higgins
• On 7:16 pm EST, Monday November 9, 2009

Rep. Marion Berry, D-Ark., expected all along that he would vote against the Democrats' health care bill. But Saturday morning he changed his mind.

"I made the decision that this issue is just too important to the American people ...for us to stop working on it at this point," he told IBD. If it had failed, it would be years before Congress tried again, he argued.

His vote may haunt him. His district went for GOP presidential nominee John McCain, 59%-38% in 2008. Republicans are gunning for him next time.

Berry is willing to bet his personal popularity -- he ran uncontested last time -- on the vote.

"Sometimes you just have to do what you think is the right thing to do and take the heat," he said. He hinted though that he may yet oppose the bill if he doesn't like what comes out of the House-Senate conference, assuming the Senate approves its own version.

Berry is just one reason why the House vote on the health care overhaul Saturday has the potential to improve GOP electoral prospects in 2010. Sixteen Democrats who voted for the bill hail from districts that voted for McCain in 2008. Another eight are from districts Obama carried with margins of less than six points.

One of the most vulnerable is Tom Perriello of Virginia's 5th District. Perriello defeated incumbent-Republican Virgil Goode in 2008 by just 727 votes and his district voted 51% for McCain.

Worse, Virginia Gov.-elect Bob McDonnell won Perrillo's district by a wide margin on Nov. 3, along with the districts of two other freshman Democratic congressmen.

Perriello stated that he voted for the bill because his constituents asked him to "fight for deficit reduction, a fair shake for rural doctors and no federal funding for abortions. I helped to score major victories on all three fronts."

But GOP state Sen. Robert Hurt, a possible opponent in 2010, said Perriello was "putting his liberal beliefs and party loyalty ahead of what's best for us."

Paul Lindsay, spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, said they will go hard after those Democrats from McCain-backing districts who sided with Speaker Pelosi.

"Whether they are being thrown under the bus or are willingly accelerating the end of their careers, many of these Democrats seem oblivious to the storms confronting them. This vote will be a constant reminder to the folks back home that they don't represent them," Lindsay said.

Ryan Rudominer, national press secretary for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, acknowledged Democrats face head winds in 2010, but said, "It was Republicans who pushed our economy over a cliff and left President Obama an economy in shambles."

It's too early to tell whether Republicans can make an issue out of this vote even in GOP-leaning districts, says Nathan Gonzales, political editor of the Rothenberg Political Report. But it probably doesn't help those Democrats.

"For a number of these members, like Tom Perriello, they were vulnerable before. The health care vote is a high profile vote for Republicans to take issue with but I think we are going to have to wait until later next year to understand the full political ramifications," Gonzales said. "After all, this is not even the final bill."

This Won't Hurt A Bit

Some Democrats being targeted by the GOP say they are not too worried. C.J. Karamargin, spokesman for Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, D-Ariz., disputed the idea that the vote would play badly back home. Still, he was careful to distance his boss from her party leadership.

"I would question the premise that the congresswoman voted to support the Speaker. She voted to do something that she thought was in the best interests of the residents of southeast Arizona," he said.

Giffords, in just her second term, holds a seat formerly held by Republican Jim Kolbe. She won in 2008 by a comfortable 55%-43% margin. But voters in her district favored McCain over Obama, 52%-46%.

Others saw it as something that might help with re-election.

"I think it could be a net positive," said Andrew Stoddard, spokesman for Rep. Dina Titus, D-Nev. "The congresswoman addressed many of the concerns of her constituents, including the cost of health care, strengthening Medicare, and helping small businesses."

The NRCC targeted the first-term Democrat Titus in an e-mail, saying that she had "sold out Nevada taxpayers in a big way tonight when she sided with her radical party leaders and offered her seal of approval for the Democrats' government takeover of health care ...Titus is now in serious danger of finding herself out of a job when Election Day rolls around."

Titus represents Nevada's 3rd District which voted 55% for President Obama last year. Titus beat out Republican John Porter by a margin of 47%-42%.

Titus had opposed the initial bill because she worried its surtax on those making $280,000 annually ($300,000 for a couple) would hit many of the constituents in her district.

With the surcharge threshold increased to $500,000 ($1 million for couples) in the current bill, Titus dropped her opposition.

Others appeared less sure. Rep. Mike Arcuri, D-N.Y., was defensive in a statement posted Monday on his Web site.

"There is a lot of false information floating around about what this health care legislation would and would not do," Arcuri said, arguing the bill would not hike the deficit, fund abortion or cut Medicare, among other issues.

He is only in his second term representing a district where Obama won by a mere 50%-48% margin. Arcuri himself won his last race by a slim 52-48% margin.

Rep. Brad Ellsworth, D-Ind., voted for it but in a statement prior to the vote had grave reservations about the language in the bill relating to abortion services.

"I will not support a bill that I believe would result in federal tax dollars being used to provide abortions," he said according to the statement.

Ellsworth was presumably satisfied that the abortion funding amendment by Rep. Bart Stupak, D-Mich., addressed that issue. That helped win over dozens of moderate to conservative Democrats. But congressional leaders already are facing pressure from pro-choice Democrats to drop that provision.

Not all Democrats on the list are necessarily vulnerable. Earl Pomeroy, D-N.D., has been in Congress since 1993 and routinely wins by large margins.

"I don't think so," said Sandra Salstrom, spokeswoman for Pomeroy, when asked if his vote would harm his re-election chances. "But this is more than just about election prospects. It's about helping the people of North Dakota. It's an issue Pomeroy has been working on for 25 years."

Others who have been in Congress for over a decade and usually win easily include John Murtha, D-Penn., and John Spratt, D-S.C.

No Vote Not Enough?

Nor are the 39 Democrats who voted against the health care bill necessarily safe. Many are on the DCCC's "Frontline Program," an effort by the DCCC to help vulnerable members improve fundraising and constituent outreach. The GOP is sure to target such members on other issues such as jobs, the deficit and cap and trade.

Meanwhile, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., has an even tougher road. Pelosi could afford dozens of Democratic defectors and still squeak by with a majority.

But Reid will need all 60 members of his caucus to overcome opposition. And several Democratic senators, including Reid, are at risk heading into 2010.

Buzz up!