ADP Miss - Is the Jobs Trend Changing?

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ADP reported that only 118,000 jobs were added in November and October’s reading was also revised slightly lower to 157,000 from 158,000.

Expectations were for 129,000 jobs to be created in November and this miss now marks the fourth month of decline for ADP job creation (the BLS data has been relatively stable, but is looking for a large decline to only 91,000 jobs on Friday).

The majority of jobs were added by large companies  with the biggest sector being construction.  Manufacfturing lost jobs in the month.

  • Small businesses (1-49 employees) +19,000
  • Medium businesses (50-499 employees) +33,000
  • Large businesses (500 or more employees) +66,000

ADP Industry Snapshot

  • Construction + 23,000
  • Manufacturing  -16,000
  • Trade/transportation/utilities   +22,000
  • Financial activities +13,000
  • Professional/business services +16,000

Productivity readings also showed that workers are getting more productive and for less money, which is good for just about everyone by the workers themselves who are being squeezed to crank out more work for less money.

Sandy’s effects are obviously present in this reading and need to be accounted for as well as the fiscal cliff.

Where do we go from here?

Friday’s BLS number will help shape the trend, which looks to be weak/weakening.   Barring a temporary construction and manufacturing surge post Sandy, I am still remiss as to where the new jobs will come from? 

Fiscal cliff solutions will almost certainly guarantee higher taxes for the top 2% of wage earners (who control a majority of the country’s wealth and business), decreased spending for various programs, higher dividend tax and likely no change or a slight increase for large businesses in the U.S.; all of which would logically have a negative effect on employment creation and the rate itself.

Where can/will the new jobs come from and what do you see in 2013?

1.       Do you believe that we will see 2013 as the year of job creation via Obama stimulus, global recovery and/or some other force?

2.       Will 2013 be a complete job killer, sending unemployment back up to 10%?

3.       More muddle through, minimal change and slow growth in jobs?

4.       Some other scenario?

Let me know your thoughts!

I see a further deterioration in jobs, with an average of 50,000 jobs created per month in 2013.  America needs to focus on energy and with that smart technology, which I believe will be integral parts of any successful job creation campaign.  Other than that I don’t (at this time) see major catalysts for growth in employment for at least the 1st half of 2013. 

 

Zacks Investment Research



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