I sold because I thought it overpriced, but it hasn't seen that price since then. It's now at $250, and TheStreet's Robert Weinstein says the next time I see that $230 price, it'll be going down, down, down to stay.
Maybe. Any growth story is harder to sustain as numbers get bigger. As they get bigger they get serious and leave their marks everywhere. On the land, on government, on the public mind.
Amazon is no longer a scrappy upstart. It's the Wal-Mart of the Web. It's also the Wal-Mart of the cloud. It dominates even Google in the sale of public cloud services.
Quartz recently unpacked Amazon's cloud revenue from the rest of its earnings, using the company's own figures, and came out with a $600 million quarter. That could grow to $3.8 billion for all of 2013 -- meaning it is growing at more than 50% per year.
What's that worth? Business Insider figures $19 billion. Consider that Rackspace , the leader in serving the open source OpenStack cloud infrastructure, is worth $6.6 billion with half Amazon's revenue. Since the Amazon Web Service API, which drives the service, remains proprietary, Amazon has a bigger moat around its AWS revenue.
How about those retail sales? Take the $19 billion off the current market cap of $113 billion and you're paying $94 billion for $15.4 billion in first-quarter sales. (Take out those cloud revenue, remember.) That's still a gain of 20% from last year's first quarter. Maintain that momentum for a full year and you're looking at almost $75 billion in sales for 2013.
Now, that still means you're paying $1.25 for each $1 of forward sales, which is almost double the 55 cents per $1 of 2012 sales you're paying for Wal-Mart, or the 47 cents for each $1 you pay for Costco revenue.
But what else are you getting?
A bigger moat, for one thing. As Amazon adds to its sales, it adds to its delivery infrastructure. It adds more warehouses, closer to customers. It adds more automation to those warehouses, it adds more data to its own data stores, and it adds more delivery infrastructure as well. Not just here, but everywhere. It should have 102 fully-automated warehouses around the world by this Christmas, according to Internet Retailer.
And those aren't Wal-Mart shoppers, my friend. They are Costco shoppers. They are the high end of the market, not the Family Dollar end.
I tried out Wal-Mart online shopping at Christmas. They're at least three years behind Amazon in terms of basic infrastructure, like knowing what's on the shelves and getting me access to it. And the distance is increasing, not decreasing.
It's true, as Weinstein suggests, that the cloud moat may not be as sturdy as this infrastructure moat. Computer prices keep declining and even commodity PCs get better each year. What you bought last year for $1 may cost you 50 cents this coming Christmas. But size matters here, too -- the number of potential competitors declines as size increases.
According to Distimo, a Dutch research company, Amazon is actually outselling Google Play in apps. More people download free stuff at Google, but more pay for what they download when they get it from Amazon. Its apps are still in only a half-dozen countries -- there's the rest of the world yet to come.
So, yes, Amazon has to compete with Google in apps and it has to compete with Wal-Mart in shopping and it even has to compete with Apple in devices. The cloud pack is nipping at its heels.
But having just a vision is no solution. Everything depends on execution, and Amazon keeps executing.
You'll pay for that, at $250/share. But I think I was wrong to sell Amazon before. I think it has a lot more growth in it.
At the time of publication, the author was long GOOG, AAPL and COST.
This article is commentary by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.