Will Apple's Fall Tip the Rest of the Market?

ETFguide

Apple has created an incredible economic ecosystem second to none. Never before has the entire stock market been as dependent on the performance of one single stock. This is a double-edged sword that could send the market soaring or spiraling down.

For some time now, stock prices have been overstretched. We've witnessed rising prices on thin volume along with a lack of broader participation by more than just a handful of stocks. None of it is the sign of a healthy market. 

One of the stock market's most beloved leaders is now a laggard: Apple. The mood has now turned from optimism and euphoria to anxiety and fear.

When Apple broke below $564 on November 7 everything changed. It marked an official 20% bear market decline in the stock from its $705 high. It also added to the technical damage in Apple's once beautiful charts. Will the fear of Apple's fall turn to panic and eventually capitulation? How fast things change. 

Just a few months ago, here were the rosy headlines:

"Wall Street Analysts Increasingly Bullish as Apple Hits Fresh Highs." - Wall Street Journal on 8/27/12

"Apple seen as 'trillion dollar baby'" - MarketWatch on 8/21/12

"Apple could be worth a trillion in one year" - The Atlantic Wire on 9/23/12

"Apple: $1,111 per share and a $1 trillion market cap next year." - All Things D on 4/26/12

Boy, were they wrong. And it's a good thing we ignored them.  

Tech Still Matters

Leadership (or lack of it) is an important factor for the broader stock market (VTI - News). From 2000-02, the technology sector (QQQ - News) led the market lower. During the 2008-09 credit crisis, bank and financial stocks (XLF - News) sank the market.

Industry sectors that contain stocks with large market capitalizations (size) always dominate the performance and volatility of major indexes. The 78 technology stocks within the S&P 500 (IVV - News) now represent a jumbo sized 22.20% of the index.

 

And if we drill down into the top 10 holdings of popular technology ETFs like the Technology Sector SPDR (XLK - News), the concentration in just a handful of stocks gets extreme. (See Figure 1) Say whatever foul things you want to say about diversification, but concentration always works like a charm, until one day when it suddenly doesn't. This time around, concentration is proving to be a double-edged sword for Cupertino groupies. Along with Apple - IBM and Google's deteriorating performance has been a drag.

  

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Making Money from Tech's Ups and Downs 

Markets fall faster than they rise. It's one of those uncomfortable truths of stock market investing. And Apple-mania is our finest case study yet.

It took Apple (AAPL - News) four months to rally 20% (Jun-Oct 2012) but just a little over one month to drop 17%. (Sep-Dec 2012) Right as Apple was topping and the mainstream was in a buying frenzy, we alerted our subscribers with this 9/19/12 update:

"In the short-run, technology ETFs look overstretched and we expect a pullback to $63-66 zone for QQQ, $27-29 for XLK."

Not only did we hit our target zones for QQQ and XLK, but the one-month 9.75% decline in technology stocks from 9/20 to 11/21 resulted 15-25% gains in inverse 2x (QID - News) and 3x (TECS - News).

On 11/21, we noted oversold conditions in these same tech ETFs and wrote to subscribers:

"We've seen a number of tech giants (aside from Apple) like Dell, Hewlett-Packard, and Intel visit multi-year lows and the enthusiasm for technology stocks has soured. This is good for buyers. Buy the QQQ Dec 2012 65 calls (QQQ121222C00065000) between $50-55 per contract. Both QQQ and XLK have reached target zones, so going long technology shares at these levels is a good short-term trading setup."

On 12/3, the QQQ Dec 2012 65 calls were sold at $140 for a 165% gain.  

With the right tools and right psychology, investors can make money from markets that trend both up and down. The ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter uses market sentiment, common sense, and technical analysis to provide a short, mid, and long-term forecast along with actionable buy/sell recommendations. This is how we identify key trend changes in the sectors as well as the broader markets.

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