Assessing QE Bull Market Longevity Based on Investor Sentiment

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Is investor sentiment still a valid contrarian indicator in the Fed-manufactured liquidity rally?

The short answer is yes, but …

But what?

I believe that investor sentiment (as contrarian indicator) is an important piece of the puzzle of the market-forecasting picture, but it needs to be recognized that QE has altered money flow and how investors feel about stocks (VTI).

The QE domino effect changes how sentiment should be used and interpreted.

Here’s the value sentiment indicators bring to the table in a QE market. See if you can find a pattern.

Excerpts are taken from the monthly Sentiment Picture, published by the Profit Radar Report:

The beginning of 2013 saw some slight sentiment poll extremes, but actual money flow indicators reflected indifference. In other words, investors didn’t ‘put their money where their mouth’ was.  

This changed in May. The May 19 Sentiment Picture noted growing optimism, particularly among money flow indicators, and warned that: “Risk is rising and the tipping point where the market is running out of buyers is nearing.”

For easy comparison, the S&P 500 (SNP:GSPC) below shows S&P 500 daily bars along with Sentiment Picture forecasts.

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The S&P 500 corrected after the May Sentiment Picture and came back to new highs on August 2.

The August 18 Sentiment Picture focused on whether the August 2 high marked a major market top and concluded that: “A major August top is possible, but not probable.”

The S&P 500 (SPY) rallied to a new high in September, and the September 27 Sentiment Picture asked if the September high marked a major top?

September 27 Sentiment Picture conclusion: “Although current sentiment doesn’t preclude lower prices, the lack of bullishness at the September highs suggests higher prices ahead eventually.”

The chart below shows the actual September 27 Sentiment Picture (without the commentary). The S&P 500 is plotted against five different sentiment gauges to provide a comprehensive sentiment analysis.

View enlarged S&P 500 Sentiment chart here

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It shows the VIX (Chicago Options: ^VIX) near the lower end of the range. But that’s meaningless. Various 2012 Sentiment Pictures put the VIX (VXX) on probation since it has lost its contrarian indicator mojo.

The other four gauges (CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio, SKEW Index, % of bullish advisors and % of bullish investors) showed no notable extremes.

The October Sentiment Pictures (forgive me for keeping this chart exclusive for Profit Radar Report subscribers) shows an obvious up tick in bullishness, especially for the SKEW Index and the percentage of bullish investors.

Previous bullish extremes weren’t enough to trigger a market top call. Is last week’s significant up tick enough?

The companion article to the subject matter of sentiment addresses this question:

Do Current Sentiment Extremes Allow for Another 20% Rally?

Simon Maierhofer is the publisher of the Profit Radar Report.

Follow Simon on Twitter @ iSPYETF 

 



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