I sold AUDCAD at 1.0441 on August 14 to gain exposure to relative US versus Chinese growth expectations, with the former economy expected to accelerate this year while the latter slows. I added to the position at 1.0370 on August 24 as the down move resumed after a brief rebound. Prices have now taken out support at 0.9998 and stand to challenge the 0.9932-55 area marked by the 61.8% Fibonacci expansion level and the May 23 swing low. A break below that exposes 0.9851. A stop-loss will be triggered on a daily close above 1.0272.
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