AUDNZD Scalps Target Near-term Support Bounce- Bullish Above 1.1320

DailyFX

Talking Points

  • AUDNZD reversal off October highs halts at Fibonacci / Trendline support
  • Risk of near-term bounce shifts focus higher into close of the week
  • Bullish invalidation with break / close below 1.1320

AUDNZD Daily Chart

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Forex_AUDNZD_Scalps_Target_Near-term_Support_Bounce-_Bullish_Above_1.1320_body_AUDNZD_Daily.png, AUDNZD Scalps Target Near-term Support Bounce- Bullis...

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook

  • AUDNZD decline off October highs completes two equal legs down
  • Support at former trendline resistance / 100% extension 1.1320 (today’s low 1.1324)
  • Daily RSI trigger-break lacks conviction / Risk for topside correction near-term
  • Topside resistance objectives at 1.1405, 1.1438 & monthly high at 1.1490
  • Support break targets 1.1290 and key support at 1.1197- 1.1216
  • Key Events Ahead: Australian Employment Report on Thursday, China Industrial Production & Retail Sales data this weekend

AUDNZD Scalp Chart

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Forex_AUDNZD_Scalps_Target_Near-term_Support_Bounce-_Bullish_Above_1.1320_body_AUDNZD_SCALP.png, AUDNZD Scalps Target Near-term Support Bounce- Bullis...

Notes: Although the decline off the October highs has been rather sharp, the pair has now come into a key support zone between 1.1320- 1.1352 that may offer a near-term bounce. The support structure is defined by the 61.8% retracement of the rally off the September low, the 100% Fibonacci extension taken from the decline from last month’s high and former trendline resistance dating back to the June 2013 high. As such, our focus has immediately shifted to the topside against this support region with only a break/close below invalidating our near-term scalp bias.

A long intra-day RSI trigger was identified just ahead of the European open with a break and re-test of trendline resistance warranting near-term long exposure. Look for a breach above former channel support to offer further conviction with such a scenario eyeing subsequent resistance targets. Note that near-term RSI support warrens of a possible pullback with another test of the 100% extension at 1.1320 not off the table before mounting a more meaningful rally. We will attempt to buy on dips / breaks of resistance so long as the pair remains above 1.1320 with a breach of the November opening range high at 1.1490 suggesting that a more significant low may be in place heading into the end of the month.

* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.

Key Threshold Grid

Entry/Exit Targets

Timeframe

Level

Significance

Resistance Target 1

Daily / 30min

1.1351/57

618% Retrace & 78.6% Fib Extension

Resistance Target 2

Daily / 30min

1.1385

61.8% Fib Extension

Bearish Invalidation

30min

1.1405/10

Weekly Opening Range Low / 50% Ext

Break Target 1

Daily / 30min

1.1439

38.2% Retracement / 61.8% Ext

Break Target 2

30min

1.1460

Soft Resistance / Pivot

Break Target 3

Daily / 30min

1.1482/92

61.8% & 23.6% Retrace(s) / Nov Open High

Break Target 4

30min

1.1525

78.6% Retracement / Pivot

Break Target 5

Daily / 30min

1.1560/74

78.6% Retrace / 78.6% Fib Ext

Bullish Invalidation

Daily / 30min

1.1320/24

100% Fib Ext / Current Nov Low / TL

Break Target 1

Daily / 30min

1.1290

78.6% Retracement

Break Target 2

30min

1.1253

88.6% Retracement

Break Target 3

Daily / 30min

1.1197 – 1.1216

1.618% Ext / Sept Low / 2013 Low

Break Target 4

Daily / 30min

~1.1150

Channel Support Dating 2011 / Pivot

Average True Range

Daily

79

Profit Targets 18-20pips

Other Setups in Play:

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---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex

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