Bear trap still no victory for bulls while New YELL ($ES F 1873.25) unconverted
Fed Chair Janet Yellen testifies before Joint Economic Committee on economy (09:01) HIGH DEGREE OF ACCOMMODATION REMAINS WARRANTED **LEVERAGE `SUBDUED’ WITHIN FINANCIAL SECTOR **EQUITIES, BROAD TYPES OF ASSETS PRICED WITHIN PAST NORM **`FLATTENING OUT’ IN HOUSING MAY POSE RISK **U.S. HOUSING MARKET DATA `DISAPPOINTING’ **EQUITIES, BROAD TYPES OF ASSETS PRICED WITHIN PAST NORM.
Chance (09:01) nothing new. George (09:01) Don’t see why Yellen will be too concerned to talk up markets near the highs. Chicagostock (09:02) March 31st she did the same thing – *stimulus measures still needed … Led into new highs at 1892.50 and dropped down to 1803. bulls are licking wounds after yellen slammed them on 31st and last friday failing to make new highs that was followed by cash open lower on monday. Tuesday they expected these buyers to come back, but they were licking wounds from monday’s open. stockmarketwhisperer (09:02) because if it sells off immediately after she speaks its bad for her reputation … iceChat (09:04) waiting on the Q&A.
Snippets: Sell in May go away? Notice daily charts of equities for the month. NFP is now the peak high and new pivot level. So long as NFP high holds, sellers in control to press market down into retesting 1830-1803 neckline. Failure to hold 1803 confirms failed retest of 1892 and head/shoulder pattern to give way toward 1740s. Buy side must recover the NFP high to squeeze shorts as fuel to target year highs – Chicagostock.
Four big economic messages from Yellen’s testimony http://wapo.st/1fPImtH
Today started with 255k ESM traded on Globex, trading range was 1871.50 – 1861.00. Yesterday’s regular trading hours (RTH’s), pit session trading range was 1861.80 – 1875.20 before settling at 1864.30, down 11.5 handles. mts2 (06:25) German Factory Orders Unexpectedly Fell in March as Risks Weigh — Italian 10-Year Bond Yield Drops Below 3% for First Time as European Recovery Continues and the futures were trading modestly higher as traders await the Fed Chair testimony. william_blount (08:03) gap and crap or gap and go — break out over 1884 cash or under 1850 cash to see the white of their eyes. cycles beginning to skew BEARISH hence ‘the bears have 7 sessions to get it going – given last Friday.
FrogMan (08:05) Breaking News: PUTIN ready to discuss way out of Ukrainian crisis with OSCE officials. Well, it is what it is … Putin will backtrack. Russia = commodity lead economy. Oil/gaz co loose access to international funding and capital markets and caboum Russia. With the wealth gap he loses control of the country if GDP goes south. OSCE president was due to meet Putin anyway. rakopoulos (08:13) West has capitulated in Ukraine IMO – can’t push the Russians too much without economic turmoil which nobody wants …
Today’s pit session gapped 4 handles higher to 1868.50 – 1868.00, the first 15 minute range … 1871.00 / 1866.30 … iceChat (08:46) PUTIN: RUSSIA PULLED BACK TROOPS FROM UKRAINIAN BORDER — Putin says he backs Merkel’s call for roundtable on Ukraine, will take “most positive” approach to international peace efforts. The market’s reaction was … unimpressed. Traders were waiting on the Fed Chair testimony and Q&A. The S&P futures were trading 1866 area (the old Yell) and were trading 1867.50 as the testimony began, reading her prepared text and the S&P dropped to 1855.00, low of day = .786 retrace of 1850.51 to 1891.33 by 9:15 before clawing back to 10 handles off the low. william_blount (09:24) Janet re-reading what was released at 10:00ET — the Q&A NEXT– the mrkt already voted on her comments …
Chance (09:25) NQ down 1.3% vs. ES -0.4%…last time we saw that disparity ES caught up fairly quickly – NQ support down at 3481-84. Yellen: Weak State of Job Market Partly Explains Decline in Labor Force Participation. Chance (09:48) bears better take it quick otherwise we going back up – bears need to take this 1860-61 to remain in control – a lot more late shorts trapped below. william_blount (10:21) BEARS want the back through 1857 BADLY TODAY TODAY TODAY … and up to 1866.50 goes the index – shy of 1866.90 daily pivot, 1868.10 weekly pivot and the 1868.50 first print of the RTH’s today. Chance (10:41) volume cluster here at 1867. stockmarketwhisperer (10:31) [DJIA] green bull divergence and downside completed targets by my work … Moon now changed ‘mood’ so tide may change here now. Stephen (10:42) Chance you were right BEAR TRAP – Dow 102 + dboy (10:43) big buy program. stockmarketwhisperer (10:47) caught that turn just in time! do we see 1873.25 The New Yell now? Chicagostock (11:03) we made new highs by 50 cents, 1871.80 HOD no victory for bulls unless they can hold above 1872. Derrick (11:27) 1870-71s still concrete yo bulls next time bring da dynomite wit ya.
jack_broz (12:08) thru auction and thru yellen; 10YR and 5s on the cusp of more upside. 10s need to hold 124.25 and 5s 119.185. Chicagostock (12:09) [NDX] looks to want new lows – How many times over last 3 months has Yellen come out to reassure market of stimulus? and the ES still stuck in a daily range – Yellen = pump and dump. FrogMan (12:58) every time she was in front of a TV camera…Derrick (12:58) every time. dboy (12:58) yep .. every time. FrogMan (12:58) FED = perma bull. stephen (12:58) except the first miss when she said 6 months … learned her lesson?
Following a lunchtime sideways trade in the mid to upper 1860’s the S&P futures stepped lower to retest yesterday’s low, holding 1862.00 followed by a small bounce … The closing imbalance (14:00) MiM – MrTopStep Imbalance Meter showed a small $128M to sell side. sorry hadn to leave early today …
Eco calendar: http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/
“After the IPO, Alibaba will have billions of extra cash on hand. The company is likely to use some of those funds to shake up American commerce and Silicon Valley” http://cnnmon.ie/1g8Kbgb
If you missed this yesterday: Putin Accidentally Posts Real Crimean Election Results; Only 15% Voted For Annexation http://onforb.es/1ijNsZT
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