NEW YORK (TheStreet
) -- On Monday through Wednesday I presented my buy-and-trade guidelines for 11 stocks in the retail-whole sector that reported earnings this week. The clear message from these reports is that holiday spending could be weaker than expected. Share price declines from the day I profiled them to Thursday's closes show that four retailers declined in price by more than 5% including the biggest losers Best Buy
. The three winners had price gains of 0.7% or less.
On Monday, I wrote Best Buy, Home Depot Headline Tuesday's Earnings and the first of the headline stocks slumped while the second moved to a new high then faded.
On Tuesday, I wrote Deere, Lowes Headline Wednesday's Earnings and the first of the headline stocks was an earnings winner that rebounded to its 200-day simple moving average then faded. The second of the headline stocks traded lower.
On Wednesday, I wrote Target, Dollar Tree and Buckle Up for Earnings Thursday and all three stocks in the headline traded lower following their earnings reports premarket on Thursday.
Among the 11 stocks I am profiling today only one is undervalued by 7.8%. I show that 10 are overvalued by 7.6% to 47.3%. All 11 stocks were buy rated pre-earnings, and all remain buy rated post earnings. One has a loss of 20% over the last 12 months while eight have gains of 24.6% to 237.7%. Two are below their 200-day SMAs while nine are above, which reflects the risk of an reversion to the mean.
Reading the Table
OV/UN Valued: Stocks with a red number are undervalued by this percentage. Those with a black number are overvalued by that percentage according to ValuEngine.
VE Rating: A "1-engine" rating is a strong sell, a "2-engine" rating is a sell, a "3-engine" rating is a hold, a "4-engine" rating is a buy and a "5-engine" rating is a strong buy.
Last 12-Month Return (%): Stocks with a red number declined by that percentage over the last 12 months. Stocks with a black number increased by that percentage.
Forecast 1-Year Return: Stocks with a red number are projected to decline by that percentage over the next 12 months. Stocks with a black number in the table are projected to move higher by that percentage over the next 12 months.
Value Level: Price at which to enter a GTC limit order to buy on weakness. The letters mean; W-weekly, M-monthly, Q-quarterly, S-semiannual and A-annual.
Pivot: A level between a value level and risky level that should be a magnet during the time frame noted.
Risky Level: Price at which to enter a GTC limit order to sell on strength.
Abercrombie ($34.97) beat estimates by 8 cents earning 52 cents a share premarket on Thursday. The stock opened lower to a day's low at $34.00 then rebounded to $36.10 closing below its 50-day SMA at $35.67. The buy rated retailer of family-oriented apparel has a weekly value level at $32.23 with a monthly risky level at $39.28.
Best Buy ($39.07) beat estimates by 7 cents earning 18 cents a share premarket on Tuesday. The stock gapped from its Monday close at $43.56 to below its 50-day SMA at $40.55 to a low of $37.91 on Thursday. The buy rated retailer of electronics and appliances is well above its 200-day SMA at $29.95 with a weekly risky level at $44.78.
Buckle ($52.30) missed estimates by 5 cents earning 85 cents a share premarket on Thursday. The stock opened lower but held its 200-day SMA at $50.90. The buy rated retailer of mid-priced apparel for young men and women moved back has a semiannual value level at $50.74 with quarterly and semiannual risky levels at $56.02 and $56.19.
Dollar Tree ($56.28) missed estimates by 2 cents earning 58 cents a share premarket on Thursday. The stock gapped from its Nov. 20 close at $58.92 to below its 50-day SMA at $58.46 trading down to a day's low at $55.15. The buy rated discount variety chain has a semiannual value level at $52.56 with monthly, semiannual and quarterly risky levels at $60.41, $60.61 and $61.33.
GameStop ($48.80) matched estimates earning 58 cents a share premarket on Thursday. The stock ended Wednesday below its 50-day SMA at $52.93 and Thursday's downside was to a day's low at $46.66. The 200-day SMA is $41.11 with a weekly risky level at $58.18.
Home Depot ($79.83) beat estimates 6 cents earning 95 cents premarket on Tuesday. The stock opened at a new multi-year high at $82.27 then faded to $79.36 on Thursday. The buy rated retailer of home improvement products seemed to be the only company to beat on both the top and bottom line and raised forward guidance, but the stock could not hold onto its earnings gain. The 200-day SMA is $74.96 with a semiannual level at $74.17 and monthly risky level at $83.59.
Lowes ($48.20) missed estimates by a penny earning 47 cents a share premarket on Wednesday. Lowes had been outperforming Home Depot but Lowes, which closed at $50.44 on Tuesday, opened with a gap below its 50-day SMA at $48.78 trading as low as $47.16. The buy rated home improvement retailer is above its 200-day SMA at $43.29 with monthly and quarterly risky levels at $50.05 and $52.88.
L Brands ($64.78) beat estimates by 3 cents earning 31 cents a share afterhours on Wednesday. The stock moved sideways since then between $62.91 and $65.01. The buy rated retailer of women's intimate apparel has a quarterly value level at $60.00 with a semiannual pivot at $63.35.
Staples ($15.50) matched estimates earning 42 cents a share in the premarket on Wednesday. The stock declined but stayed above its 200-day SMA at $14.80 then rebounded to close above its 50-day SMA at $15.35 on Thursday. The buy rated retailer of office supplies has a quarterly value level at $14.40 with and annual pivot at $15.58 and semiannual risky level at $16.68.
Target ($64.19) beat estimates by 22 cents earning 84 cents a share premarket on Thursday. Weak guidance caused this stock to drop from its Wednesday close at $66.49 to below its 50-day SMA at $64.52 to a day's low at $63.49. The buy rated big box retailer and grocery chain has an annual value level at $53.54 with an annual pivot at $65.45 and a monthly risky level at $71.59.
TJX Companies ($63.99) beat EPS by a penny earning 75 cents a share premarket on Tuesday. This stock moved sideways to up setting another new all-time high at $64.09 on Thursday. The buy rated parent of T.J. Maxx, Marshall's and HomeGoods stores has a monthly value level at $61.46 with a quarterly pivot at $63.94.
At the time of publication the author held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned.
This article is commentary by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.
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