Hope you're feeling rested because this is the biggest day of the year, at least so far. That's because we've got a confluence of technicals, fundamentals and for want of a better term, "collective mojo" coming to a head in the next eight hours. Can stocks really pull off a third "V" bottom in one year? How's the consumer? Does Ebola matter? Is oil good or bad for shipping? Is anyone, anywhere using Surface tablets as anything other than 3lb paperweights?
We know where the market is technically. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) pulled back yesterday just like it was supposed to. Since last Thursday the S&P 500 has gone up more than 100 points. That's a lot, even in the most V-bottom friendly tape I can remember. Stocks "want" to rally if only because no fund manager can afford to miss a fourth enormous trade in one year. In a vacuum traders would buy the dip. Today is not a vacuum. It's a clutter-filled hell chamber of earnings reports.
You want momentum vs news? How about the airlines. American Airlines (AAL), Alaska Air Group (ALK), United Continental Holdings (UAL) and for all I know the Wright Brothers report today. Those stocks are everything maddening about this year rolled into one industry. Up more than 40% in the face of plagues, global tensions and hostile customers. American Airlines is up ten straight points going into this report. Watch the entire group as your first market tell.
Under Armour's (UA) quarterly results topped estimates and later today more clues on the consumer will come from Amazon (AMZN) which reports after the bell. Two wildly different companies, almost ying-yang stocks, but the narrative is well established. Under Armour crushed it and Amazon *should* be horrible. Be careful when narratives are that obvious in terms of trading.
Union Pacific (UNP) will tell us all we need to know about shipping in the US. Imax (IMAX) will enlighten us on movies, which have actually had a good month after a terrible summer. Callaway Golf (ELY) will confirm the death of golf. Deckers Outdoor (DECK) will most likely stink, adding tension to the Brady household in light of Giselle's Under Armour butt-kicking.
Finally tonight we'll hear the one thing we know already but it's from an important company so we better pay attention. Spoiler Alert: no one is using the Surface but hopefully IBM (IBM) isn't an accurate tell on the state of corporate spending. Microsoft (MSFT) will fill us in after the bell.
