Will BioDelivery Sciences (BDSI) Disappoint this Earnings?


BioDelivery Sciences International, Inc. (BDSI) is expected to report second quarter 2014 results on Aug 8, 2014.

Last quarter, BioDelivery Sciences posted a 100.0% positive surprise. However, on an average, BioDelivery Sciences has posted a 14.64% negative surprise in the last four quarters. Let’s see how things are shaping up for the second quarter.

Factors to Influence Q2 Results

Revenues for the first quarter came in at $20.7 million, easily beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6 million.

In Jun 2014, the FDA approved BioDelivery Sciences’ Bunavail (buprenorphine and naloxone buccal film) for the maintenance therapy of opioid dependence. BioDelivery Sciences plans to launch Bunavail towards the end of the third quarter of 2014. The company is currently working on the execution of sales, marketing and other commercialization and product supply chain activities in order to support the anticipated launch of Bunavail. We note that BioDelivery Sciences entered into an agreement with Quintiles (Q) to provide a range of services to support the anticipated launch including the establishment of a sales team. However, we expect operating expenses to increase significantly owing to the launch.

Earnings Whispers?

Our proven model does not conclusively show that BioDelivery Sciences will beat earnings this quarter. That is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1, #2 or #3 to be able to beat consensus estimates. That is not the case here as you will see below.

Zacks ESP:  The ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, is 0.00%. This is because both the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate currently stand at a loss of 7 cents.

Zacks Rank #3 (Hold): BioDelivery Sciences’ Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) when combined with a 0.00% ESP makes surprise prediction difficult.

We caution against stocks with Zacks Ranks #4 and #5 (Sell-rated stocks) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.

Stocks to Consider

Here are some companies you may want to consider as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements:

Myriad Genetics Inc. (MYGN) has an Earnings ESP of +4.35% and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). Myriad Genetics will be reporting fiscal fourth quarter 2014 earnings on Aug 12, 2014.

Curis, Inc. (CRIS) has an Earnings ESP of +33.3% and a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). Curis will be reporting second quarter results on Aug 7, 2014.

Read the Full Research Report on Q
Read the Full Research Report on MYGN
Read the Full Research Report on CRIS
Read the Full Research Report on BDSI

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