Black Friday Approaches: Global Week Ahead
The Global Week Ahead ends at Black Friday. This shopping mega-day should – once again – be a marketing sensation.
To lure shoppers, brick-and-mortar store doors open very early on the coming Friday morn (in some cases, Thanksgiving evening!). Each retailer offers very, very special promotions.
Some special deals are only available in limited quantities. That is why some shoppers intent on getting the best deals often camp out in front of stores overnight -- so they'll be the first in line when the doors open.
Why Black Friday? Wonderopolis.org proffers a couple explanations.
Since 1932, the coming 4-day weekend marks the beginning of the Xmas shopping season in the USA. Historians believe the name itself started in Philadelphia in the mid-1960s. Bus drivers and police used “Black Friday" to describe heavy traffic that would clog city streets the day after Thanksgiving, as shoppers headed to the stores.
Businesses, however, didn't like the negative tone associated with the Black Friday name. In the early 1980s, a more positive explanation for the name began to circulate.
Alternatively, Black Friday is the day when retailers finally begin to turn a profit for the year. In accounting terms, operating at a loss (losing money) is called being “in the red" because accountants traditionally used red ink to show negative amounts (losses).
Since 2005, this looming Friday mini-holiday has been the busiest shopping day of the year. In 2016, the National Retail Federations thinks 137.4 million people, or 59% of Americans, will shop in stores or online over the 4-day weekend, up from 135.8 million last year.
Black Friday should remain the busiest day of the year -- 74% expect to shop.
For investors, the most profitable riddle to solve relates to the role of the mega-cap FANG companies (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, and Google) in today’s Xmas season.
Our online world -- of social media, easy online shopping, streaming movies and searching for anything over the Internet -- has changed our habits. The 4 FANG firms continue to undermine the shopping malls, by offering a way to escape traffic-congested parking lots, particularly on Black Friday.
However, the chance to socialize and a spare vacation day weigh in favor of the Black Friday brick-and-mortar tradition continuing, once again.
Sigh!
Top Zacks #1 Rank (STRONG BUY) Stocks—
(1) Best Buy BBY is $14.5 billion market cap big-box retailer of consumer electronics. The stock is a Zacks #1 Rank. The Zacks VGM score is A with A’s in Value, Growth and Momentum. You can’t beat that.
And it is Xmas shopping season!
Best Buy operates in a single business segment, selling personal computers and other home office products, consumer electronics, entertainment software, major appliances and related accessories principally through its retail stores and online.
(2) Edgewell Personal Care EPC is a $4.7 billion market-cap Consumer Staples stock. It has a Zacks #1 Rank and a Zacks VGM score of B.
Edgewell Personal Care manufactures and markets personal care products.
The company's brand consists of Schick(R) and Wilkinson Sword(R) men's and women's shaving systems and disposable razors; Edge(R) and Skintimate(R) shave preparations; Playtex(R), Stayfree(R), Carefree(R) and o.b. (R) feminine care products; Banana Boat(R) and Hawaiian Tropic(R) sun care products; Playtex(R) infant feeding, Diaper Genie(R) and gloves; and Wet Ones(R) moist wipes.
Edgewell Personal Care -- formerly known as Energizer Holdings -- is based in St. Louis, Missouri.
(3) Eagle Pharma EGRX is a $1.2 billion market cap Medical Products stock. It has a Zacks #1 Rank and a Zacks VGM score of B.
Eagle Pharma is a specialty pharma firm.
It focuses on developing and commercializing injectable products primarily in the critical care and oncology areas in the USA. It is based in Woodcliff Lake, New Jersey.
Key Global/Macro Indicators—
After a prior week heavy on Fed speakers, this week’s monetary policy focus should be upon the FOMC minutes that come out.
Don’t neglect ongoing media attention placed upon Trump concerning his picks for Treasury and State; and other key cabinet positions.
U.S. durable goods orders on Wednesday could be market moving, as well as Brazil’s latest inflation rate.
On Monday, GDP growth in Peru looks to get to +4.4% y/y from +3.7%.
Fed Vice Chair Stan Fischer speaks in NYC.
On Tuesday, unemployment in Taiwan should be a very low 3.93%, thanks to global info tech.
Fischer’s MIT student Guy DeBelle speaks about the Reserve Bank of Australia outlook in Sydney.
Unemployment in Finland is 7.7%, while in South Africa it is 26.6%.
Retail sales in Canada should advance +0.6% m/m.
Existing home sales in the USA should be 5.35 million units, down slightly from last month’s 5.47 million.
On Wednesday, France’s preliminary manufacturing and services PMIs come out. The prior manufacturing reading was 51.8. Services showed 51.4.
In contrast, Germany’s manufacturing PMI was 55 and services 54.2.
For the Eurozone, look for the manufacturing PMI to reach 53.5 from 53.3, and services to rise from 52.8 to 53.
Brazil’s key IBGE inflation rate comes out. This is what keys monetary policy change there. The new annualized rate of 7.73% expected should be lower than the prior 8.27% y/y rate.
U.S. durable goods orders come out as do initial claims (look for a low 254K). The claims data is one day early this week, due to Thanksgiving.
On Thursday, There is a EU-Ukraine summit in Brussels.
South Africa’s reserve bank announces it latest rate decision. 7% is the base rate currently.
Germany’s final GDP reading should be +1.7% y/y, while Spain should update us on its +3.2% annualized GDP growth rate.
On Friday, GDP growth in Taiwan should come out. The prior was +2.06% y/y.
U.K. GDP growth comes out. The prior reading was +2.3% y/y.
Argentina’s unemployment rate should fall to 9.1% from the prior 9.3%.
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