I listened to hedge fund legend Leon Cooperman's CNBC interview yesterday and agreed with 80% of what he said. He's spot on when he says the Fed has become data dependent with transparent targets at 6.5% unemployment, 3% GDP and 2%-3% inflation.
My disagreement can be summarized by this question: What happens if Bernanke is squeezed out of QE before those benchmarks are reached?
This particular iteration of QE cannot go on forever, the Fed cannot purchase $85 billion each month because the supply of treasuries and mortgage-backed securities is constrained, as David Tepper mentioned last month; the taper needs to happen in order to avoid a bond bubble caused by this artificial demand.
With Bernanke set to be replaced in January, he does not want to leave this mess for his replacement to deal with. The correction needs to happen now, and he seems perfectly willing to take one for the team. Otherwise, he would not have been so forthcoming regarding a QE exit strategy in Wednesday's press conference. Bernanke knows exactly what he's doing.
During this recalibration period, equities will drop, bonds will drop, gold should drop and interest rates will rise. So far so good in the EconomicTiming.com portfolio.
Gold puts have been the most profitable of all.
The really good news is that this market correction is setting up generational buy (if Jim Cramer can use that phrase to describe the earnings-starved Netflix
August and September have the potential of being the best two months of performance in Apple options history. Having the portfolio positioned in cash and opportunistic puts until the Fed dust settles will create an ideal entry scenario into Apple as we approach the July earnings report.
As soon as we observe a turn in the broad market action, we'll aggressively enter Apple calls, rather than average into positions. This strategy will help us reap the full rewards of a run back to $450. Apple's bottom at $380 is in. If we can get anywhere near that level over the next four weeks, it will be a gift.
Today we're adding some additional put exposure to a market that appears to be giving us the pullback that everyone has been waiting for. We believe that market sentiment changed on May 22 with Bernanke's first hint of a taper and that this negative volatility will continue until the new environment is fully priced in.
The Fed may need to announce a new program to replace the $85 billion bond purchases in order to finalize the bottoming process. Being forced to exit QE prior to 6.5% unemployment and 3% GDP is not good in the short run.
TSLA has been a great performer over the last few days, so we'll hold onto it but will exercise a quick trigger.
FYI -- I recently used the square app to make my first purchase at a local restaurant. The one-click purchase without taking out my wallet was incredible. If Authentec fingerprint tech gives Apple a competitive security advantage in the mobile wallet space, which we believe it will, watch out. Sept. 11 could be a game changer.
At the time of publication, the author held positions in AAPL, TSLA, GLD, SPY.
This article is commentary by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.
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