Brazil’s Bad Weather Revives Coffee ETN Rally

ETF Trends

The rally in coffee exchange traded notes is back on as traders capitalize on extended drought conditions in Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer, with some beginning to worry about next year’s production.

The iPath Dow Jones-UBS Coffee Total Return Sub-Index ETN (JO) rose 4.9% Monday while the iPath Pure Beta Coffee ETN (NYSEArca: CAFÉ) gained 4.3%. Coffee has been the best performing asset so far this year, with JO up 70.3% and CAFE up 64.5% year-to-date. [Why Coffee ETNs Surged This Week]

ICE coffee futures were up 3.6% Monday, trading around $1.9165 per pound.

Brazil’s National Coffee Council cut its current harvest estimates to between 40.1 million and 43.3 million 60-kilogram bags of coffee from 44 million due to “unexpected climate situation this year in Brazil’s coffee-producing belt, with a lack of rain especially in January and February,” reports Alexandra Wexler for the Wall Street Journal.

“Numbers like the ones we saw to end the week are pushing most (traders) to take the safe route and lock in long positions,” Hector Galvan, senior market strategist at RJO Futures, saidi n thea rticle. “I would believe that we are quickly on our way to close above the $2 (level) and likely stay above it for some time.”

Somar Meteorologia said that this January and February were the driest in 30 years. Dry weather conditions stunt the maturation of coffee cherries. The drought is expected to last through Brazilian coffee-growing regions through at least next week.

Brazil’s National Coffee Council also lowered its 2015 harvest projections to between 38.7 million and 43.6 million bags, down from earlier estimates of 43 million to 44 million bags.

“With the damage that is being done right now, we’re not going to be likely to produce a better crop next year,” Sterling Smith, a futures specialist at Citigroup, said in the article.

iPath Dow Jones-UBS Coffee Total Return Sub-Index ETN

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