Brian's Thursday recap: Collective resistance levels, T+3 time

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Collective Intelligence!
The Day Trading Maestro Top Notch aka Tim Haefke @FuturesTNT - A MrTopStep Webinar this Saturday, April 27th http://bit.ly/17Oldhp limited seating.
At (7:06a.m. CT) Top Notch updated yesterday observations. 30 year bond- 148.00 pivotal / the range overnight is almost identical to yesterday’s regular session. The only difference at this time is the high. 148.06 now vs. 148.09 yesterday. This future is consolidating and with this tight compact action, something may be ready to give. The only problem is this scenario doesn't confirm which direction. Could be a long day in this sector. The s&p also holds the same low it made yesterday last night. It finally found the 1581.00 price I was looking for, so it appears the table is set.

We weeble, but we don’t stay down as we head into T+3 month end window dressing. I’m confused, is this the bulls or the bears? twitpic.com/clv6hq Happy World Penguin Day! Back on pace in the morning, to the bears’ dismay. [RUT] working next upleg. redliontrader up up and away in my beautiful balloon. Roger Volz (07:01CT) should go back to bed and come back for last hour if this going to be an upside grinder, zzzzz.... Sam Easley (07:44) my book on es pretty simple, see 1585.75-1587 and will short big. I see this as an extended abc up that takes us in the perfect world to 1587 and there she will roll. Carley Garner (09:14) We are in wait and see mode. If the ES gets up to the 1590 area, we'll be looking to sell calls at strikes above 1600.

The Golden Age of Commodities may be over. The super cycle that has enveloped the sector since 1998 is showing signs of rounding its top. This now suggests the long-only funds will have to step into a more active management role of their portfolio. The super cycle influence made the trade of buying and holding commodities an easy trade. But they also had China gearing up for their smashing introduction to the global stage with the Summer Olympics of 2008. The type of growth is once in a century. The building of massive new cities, some of which are still unoccupied, drew on all the industrial necessities. With the economy there sliding back to a less robust 7.5 percent, stores of copper and other base metals are building. Copper is in a full fledged bear market down 20% from its high. Growth in oil demand has also slowed in China. More than 1/2 of the $326 billion invested in commodities from 2000 came in 2008 to 2010 - posted by Stanton Analytics.

[SPY] 20Kx May 149/157 puts ratio spread opened for $1.03, 2x1 ratio spread.... some protection ahead of GDP tomorrow.

Important shift in mentality "An increasing amount of officials in Europe are speaking out against austerity (Rehn said the pace of austerity was slowing while new Italian PM Letta urged Europe to focus more on growth.)" Also, Central Banks Load Up on Equities as Low Rates Kill Bond Yields http://bloom.bg/17jAxUQ

Chatter – been around for a long time and not going away… long term outlook, the dollar losing its world status… just Google "plans to bypass the dollar"

iceChat (10:23) HAGEL SAYS WHITE HOUSE CONFIRMS SYRIA CHEMICAL WEAPONS USE -- This is very very bad news. The US official policy has been to stay out of the conflict in Syria unless and until there is confirmation of Bashar Assad using chemical weapons against the population... So this means that the drumbeat to significant US involvement in the Syrian civil war is now unavoidable... Bullish oil and gold and bearish risk and the mkt is NOT focused on this...

Harmonics from Kathy at http://structuraltrading.com/: Kathy (09:23CT) 6E forming BC leg of emerging Bat, but 1.2959 is crucial support test http://screencast.com/t/8uxFVOACF (09:35CT) ES premkt chart states a hold above 1579 has 1586 tgt w/ scaling pts 1581.75 & 1584, scaling pt tgts have hit, premkt chart: http://screencast.com/t/4IjSoii4x current chart http://screencast.com/t/92lVP6E5qdxH

At (10:35CT) Kathy posted 1586 is important level, if can't retrace from here, upside tgts are 1593 & 1595.5 TF breached a Bearish Bfly PRZ at 938.2 to complete a larger bearish Bat at 943.5 NQ approaching 100% retracement of bullish Bfly at 2858.5 CL b/o attempt of megaphone, watch for 91.95 or 91.87 support test

Monday’s S&P 500 trade started with 300k ESM and 1.3k SPM traded on Globex, trading range was 1582.50 – 1571.00. Wednesday’s regular trading hours (RTH’s), pit session trading range was 1578.30 – 1571.00 before settling at 1574.10, up .5 handles. Initial claims checked in 339k vs exp 351k. Roger S. (07:40CT) The upper daily ES Bollinger band is not far away at 1590.54. John Monaco (08:26) 75% BUY SIDE ON THE OPENING IMBALANCE.

The regular trading hours opening range was 1579.30 – 1578.50 marking the early high before fading back to 1576.70 by 8:48CT - Fimat sold 700 SPM, big S&P in the pit as the locals provided the liquidity. No action in [VIX] or [SPX]. The CBOE open outcry delayed due to system problems caused traders to be shooting partially in the blind during the opening 35 minutes or so. redliontrader (08:46): NYSE A/D Line = 1.7:1, Keeping eyes on RUT today 2:1 a/d line, OEC P/C = 3.3:1 (bearish/protective). (08:58) RUT A/D line 3.42:1 right now money going into risk. CBOE resumed trading at 9:15CT and closed again, finally opened by 11:50. (09:27) Christopher Vecchio - Hearing that a think tank report says ECB may ease with non-standard measures next week. Worst thing for UK economy? Today's strong 1Q'13 GDP print. Why? Policymakers less likely to alter policy path, now feeling emboldened. (10:01:27): SB bot about 700 SPM above 1573.80 up to the highs 1585.50 area with the locals providing the liquidity. The SPM printed an intraday high of 1588 at 1:08. See all the matches posted above regarding today’s resistance. iceChat (14:12) Markets move lower in reaction to wire headlines that Fed Chairman Bernanke says vulnerabilities remain in the markets -Treasury Secretary Jack Lew and Bernanke are attending a Financial Stability Oversight Council meeting -Other headlines indicate that Bernanke says regulatory changes have strengthened financial markets and regulators must remain vigilant in overseeing markets - The comment on vulnerabilities appear to be getting the most attention. The 1581.50 area was trading when the closing imbalance showed a small $100M to sell. On the cash close the SPM future traded 1581 area before settling at 1581.70, up 7.6 handles on the futures close.

Brian Shepard is a 20-year exchange member of the CME Group.
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