Brian's Thursday recap: No walkaway trade, instead a stroll to new highs; stealth fin buying

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Cypriot banks opened Thursday amid tight currency controls. Although the Euro Commission said they should not be kept in place too long. The operative word: “should.” If this was a serious and truthful statement the word “would” be substituted. Moreover, they do not define the period of time. They will monitor the situation. Also, the Italian situation is little better. Still unable to form a coalition government, there may be need to hold a new election. Fresh in the minds of investors is that which befell Greece following its election. For those who may not recall austerity was rejected. There was a marionette’s dance to get the sides to agree on more aid. Headline risk will persist - posted by Stanton Analytics.

Collective Intelligence! [JPM] [C] and [GS] each accumulated about 500 total buys, slowly, quietly spread out over this morning about 500 each.

Conflicting... John (13:03:01): 80% SELL SIDE ON THE CLOSE EARLY. Versus this post; iceChat (13:03:10): regarding iceChat (09:52:57): some chatter = rebalance leaning to russell 2000 buyers >>> elway39: you may have had a good read on Russell 2k.

The walkaway trade did not materialize - can't fight this type of mechanical tape.
iceChat (09:13:45): chatter - potential for holiday weekend - talking heads chatting up stock market again. May be adding some support. THE WALKAWAY TRADE: This is an end of the quarter trade. On the last day of quarter the portfolio managers have a tendency to run out of money after marking up stocks earlier. So, by 12:00-1:00ish CST this leaves the S&P susceptible to a decline later in the day. Traders look to set up a short position in the early to mid-afternoon as professional money managers walk away, leaving the equities ready for an afternoon fade. To see all the rules, visit https://mr-topstep.com/ and click on Education Hub, then click Trading Rules 101.

Don’t miss this guy > @princetontrader aka Mike V posted his pivots http://t.co/U3MQiAvwVR webcast http://t.co/jiXApEjwR5 At (08:50CT) Mike posted his vol windows ES: 1563.00 x 1551.00 and NQ: 2813.50 x 2791.25. The middle band remains good support. Bulls need new highs today or they run the risk of a push. That said, any significant pullback requires follow-through and until the bears can find their car keys for more than an hour or two we are going to keep bouncing like this.

Kathy has had some very good calls too! Charts posted by Kathy Garber @tbg4321. Harmonic rotations CL http://screencast.com/t/u6h4XStvGZ Nq http://screencast.com/t/NEUDkykqzC ES http://screencast.com/t/oX8pDDuZ So far, balanced profile in ES, only 5 point range. Important resistance test is 1560.50, above there has 1564.5 confluence target, a hold below 1560.50 keeps price inside ascending triangle consolidation. 6E http://screencast.com/t/KmxE14JX 6E, a hold above 1.2835 has strong magnet target 1.2883, w/ scaling pt 1.2856. A hold below 1.2835 has support test target 1.2812

During the Globex session 272k ESM with 1.3k SPM traded on Globex, trading range was 1558.80 – 1549.90. Wednesday’s regular trading hours (RTH’s), pit session trading range was 1558.30 – 1546. AAII sentiment came in today - fewer bulls, fewer bears, more neutrals - bull-bear spread widened a touch. Weak U.S. economic data pushed aside in favor of month/quarter end markup/rebalance along with the second biggest Fed POMO of the month on tap while traders continue to focus on the S&P on all-time closing high. Also, the opening imbalance showed an overall $278.23M x 189.40M, a very small $90M to the buy side.

Today’s SPM regular trading hours (RTH’s) opening range was unchanged to a little higher at 1556.80 – 1557.50, traded 1559.30 before quietly fading back to 1557 area as the March Chicago PMI checked in at (08:43CT early release to subscribers) 52.4 vs exp 56.5. By 8:45 1555 marked the new low and by 9:30 a new high of 1559.60 printed and by 9:45 the S&P cash surpassed its all-time closing high, 1565.15, as the money managers went to work during the morning ... The SPM printed a new daily high at 10:30 and held 1558.50 area on the pullback at 11:26. The treasuries and the currencies had an early close today, 12:00CT. However, that did not stop the new weekly high from printing - nor did the poor economic data this morning... At 12:00 1560 area was trading and the volume becoming pathetically light.

The early afternoon trade was sideways to higher, holding the 1559 area, and by 1:50 was retesting the morning high despite [AAPL] trading $9 - $10 lower weighing on the Nasdaq and the [BKX] was trading off the afternoon lows, but still modestly lower, down 11 cents. Point? The SPM was still up five handles on the day with S&P cash market trading well above the all-time closing high as the Russell 2000 and the midcaps were leading the charge. The 2:45 closing imbalance showed the broader market with a small $187mil to buy before the SPM went on to print a new daily high of 1564.30 going into the cash close. On the 3:00 cash close the SPM traded 1562.50 area before settling at 1562.70, up 5.9 handles on the 3:15 futures close. [GS] went out on the low of day.

Brian Shepard is a 20-year exchange member of the CME Group.
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DISCLAIMER: The information and data in the above report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any commodities or securities.

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