Tough day in the windy city of Chicago as well as the entire Midwest region. The thunderstorms were relentless, causing widespread flooding, highways were closed, many schools were closed and the public transportation was delayed by a couple of hours. The governor of Illinois declared a state of emergency and most of the local traders stayed home or left early. I don’t mean to complain, obviously there are worse things in life, but the weather had a direct impact on the trading floor at the CME Group.
Collective Intelligence!
At (08:59CT) Roger Volz heard french bank issue chatter. At (09:06CT) Jimmy Ticks added heard that chatter as well RV...french banks are always in trouble - right? Negative flow begets negative chatter...and that can feed off itself.
The rise in nat gas of late has been the result of prominent funds placing bearish bets that were disrupted by the length of cold weather in the forecasts. Now that this short covering is out of the way, the data points in this market will be more important than normal. This will set the stage for a major top if nothing other than very bullish. Weather will be warming and the shoulder season will begin as it always does but later than normal this year - posted by Stanton Analytics at (07:59).
Many of our peers are starting to like the upside in coffee, and we agree. The market has been grinding to multi-year lows on very low volatility. Any freeze whispers in Brazil could send the market rocking higher - posted by Carley Garner at (08:13CT). Here is a weekly chart of coffee: http://bit.ly/15pgTIW
Kathy has had some very good calls! Charts posted by Kathy Garber @tbg4321. DAX http://screencast.com/t/rToltPbwX NQ http://screencast.com/t/TLWqVRDBXOFb ES http://screencast.com/t/OZHlZzfAodJ CL http://screencast.com/t/QxpJzN0V Kathy: I wrote this over a year ago, a friend was being stubborn about staying in a trade, so pulled it up. 12 Steps of Traders Anonymous: http://t.co/G7gWDVFBDp
For a guide to the S&P market tendencies visit us at www.mr-topstep.com and bounce around, click on the Education Hub tab and take a look at the trading rules 101, webinars and more.
On Monday at (08:39a.m. CT) William Blount offered GUN TO HEAD -- we will trade 1600 cash before 1538 cash and that is the Elliott Wave LEAN. The bears don't do jack crapola until they convert 1559.
Thursday’s S&P 500 trade started with 280k ESM and 1.2k SPMs trading on Globex. The German Bundestag passed Cypriot bailout with 487 votes in favor, 102 against with 13 abstentions which was offset by the Italian political quagmire.
The regular trading hours opening range was 1549.00 - 1548.50, marking the high before fading back to 1542.50 area at 8:41 and bouncing back and double-topping at 1547.20 area. Double tops are generally seen as a reversal point. I guess I just gave away the direction of the next leg lower...1536.00 traded at 9:03 following the 9:00CT economic data. The economic data has been checking in mixed to weaker of late, but the bulls have not been there to buy and extend the minor rallies over the last several days. At (09:09CT) redliontrader asked, How do you like that dollar, running with the market and now running against it. In the early going the selling was strong in the equities, but not as strong as yesterday - 70% down volume as opposed to 90% yesterday... and the ticks were holding decent. The midday trade was spent in the 1538 to the 1543 area in quiet trade. By 1:00 the buyers stepped aside and new lows of 1531.00 printed before retesting / rejected from the 1539 area. The 1537 area was trading at 2:45 as the closing imbalance showed a small $118M to the buy side. On the cash close Goldman [GS] sold 400 SPM big S&P as the future traded 1536.70 area before settling at 1534.00, down 12.1 handles on the futures close.
Brian Shepard is a 20-year exchange member of the CME Group.
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DISCLAIMER: The information and data in the above report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any commodities or securities.
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