Brian's Tuesday recap: Euro jitters, focus on 10Y, crude levels, yen on crack

Brian Shepard
June 11, 2013

Collective Intelligence!

Roger_Volz (05:04) Turkey...jitters German court may overturn the promise by the European Central Bank to do "whatever it takes" to save the euro is being challenged in Germany's constitutional court starting today. However, chatter making the rounds is a final ruling may not occur until after the German elections later this year. Draghi has defended his policy measures over the last year (esp. the OMT) and there are doubts the German court will hamper the ECB.

Rising Rates Have the Attention of Stock Market

10 year: jack_broz (07:12) note 10YR 2 1/4% hitting at 128.14. Roger_Volz (07:48) ZN daily OS against channel support 128'03

Crude: PivotBoss (07:25) Crude will be gapping out of range & value on an RTH chart below 95. A push into 95-95.20 will likely be a sell pop, with downside tgts at 94.37, 93.85, and 93.34.  Stanton_Analytics (07:58) Crude: a likely new low is seen. If this occurs the target is 94.00 to 93.80. The minor upside pivot is 95.10.  crude the 100 DMA on the continuation chart is 94.06. Kathy (08:14) CL testing bullish Bat PRZ 94.02, however, when price approaches a PRZ w/ this type of bearishness, it is considered a tgt initially, not unless there's a stall & brk of consolidation there does it evolve into a potential reversal point.

Crude update: Stanton_Analytics (08:56) The upside pivot to confirm a v.s.t. bottom is 94.88. It is looking as if there is a potential to reverse if the s&p shows strength. it will test the 100 PMA on the hourly chart at 95.10. It is a two way market now. NEW YORK--U.S. crude futures slipped below $95 a barrel Tuesday, weighed down by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries' monthly report that trimmed its forecast for global oil demand growth. OPEC marginally cut its global oil-demand growth forecast for 2013 by 10,000 barrels a day from last month's report. But demand for the commodity will still grow by about 780,000 barrels a day this year, it said. As 95.10 area was trading,  Stanton_Analytics (13:16) Crude: With such poor volume it is unlikely, but the pattern calls for a trip to 95.50. with a break of 95.10. The pivot to the downside is 94.45.

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Kathy ( (08:59) ES, anticipated a breach of 1625.5 to test the dbl bullish PRZ 1622, key now is if price can hold above 1628.5 to start retracement mode, premkt chart: , current chart:

Kathy (10:39) CL has retraced its bullish bat the minimum, key if holds below GRZ 94.94, premkt chart , current chart:

Kathy (10:45) ES, testing important resist here at 1638.25, 61.8% retracement of bullish Bat, ideal tgt for 5-0 is 1648.5. premkt chart: , current chart:

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During the Globex session 385k ESM and 2.5k SPM traded, range was 1642.20 – 1625.10. Monday’s regular trading hours (RTH’s), pit session trading range was 1648.30 – 1638.30 before settling at 1642.10, up 3.5 handles. The weakness continues to stem from tapering concerns that lead to soaring bond yields, strengthening yen, risk off in the emerging markets and the old European Union  - in front of the German constitutional court case validation of the OMT to back up sovereign debt. Greed and fear run the markets and the meter has been leaning toward concern ever since a few of the Fed governors remarked the tapering could start in June. It seems the majority of traders are leaning to the September meeting and possibly later. We look forward to next week's FOMC meeting...

Thursday is switch day = SEPTEMBER will be the front month.

The SPM gapped 14 handles lower to 1627.00-1626.00 following the Globex lead and traded a low of 1621.70 before finding support. William Blount (08:32) 1627 opg - aka weekly pivot -  da battle rages for the weekly pivot and the 1623 SPOT. Kathy (09:11) Yesterday ES was NR7 day, expansion occurred during globex, currently price is in megaphone type contraction at bullish pattern completion targets & hovering around 1626.25 CHVN, this implies chop until can break & hold beyond either 1628.75 or 1621.5. Following a 17 handle rally off the lows, 1639 intraday high traded at 10:31, European close Tim Haefke aka Top Notch (10:30) Missed some opportunities early on, but offering s&p @ 1639.00, 1639.50, & 1640.00. Nasdaq has daily pivot of 2991.25 and will offer 2991.00. Also, we noted 1639 = 50 day ma on the 60 min. By 12:15 the equities began to deteriorate iceChat (12:31) Yen new highs and the SPM was trading 1630 area. Roger_Sawyer (12:32) Nice call, Tim and FrogMan- (12:33) very nice call Tim. dc (13:05) JPY on crack up 3%. By 1:00 1625.50, open range area held on the downside and 1631 area was trading elway (13:30) we are trading tick for tick with friggin yen which did back off to up 2.5%. The SPM bounce held 1633.50 area and then toyed with the opening range on the downside. An early look at the [NYSE] closing imbalance by John_Monaco (13:41) 75% sell side on the close. The 1627 area was trading when the 2:45 cash imbalance showed a huge $1.3Bil to the sell side. 1625.30 traded on the cash close before settling at 1627.10, down 15 handles on the day.

Brian Shepard is a 20-year exchange member of the CME Group.




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