There’s been little follow-through by high beta currencies and risk-correlated assets from Friday, when the Australian Dollar and the Euro had their strongest days against the US Dollar since November 30, 2011. Quizzically, the lack of follow-through in FX markets has occurred alongside some further strength in the commodity complex, where Crude Oil and Gold have posted gains of +1.79% and +0.81% thus far on Tuesday.
As noted yesterday, until the European Central Bank meeting on Thursday, the key indicators to watch are Italian and Spanish debt in the wake of the Summit. Thus far on Tuesday, both sovereigns have seen their short-term and long-term debt improve slightly further. The Italian 2-year note yield has fallen to 3.266% (-6.0-bps) while the Spanish 2-year note yield has fallen to 4.008% (-4.3-bps). The Italian 10-year note yield has fallen to 5.660% (-4.8-bps) while the Spanish 10-year note yield has fallen to 6.258% (-4.3-bps). As always, lower yields imply higher prices.
RELATIVE PERFORMANCE (versus USD): 10:42 GMT
Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR): +0.08%
An overall quiet session in New York coming up, with no data out of Europe expected the rest of the day. Of interest: the Factory Orders report for May (14:00 GMT / 10:00 EDT), in which domestic manufacturers are expected to show a slight increase in activity. However, we could see a surprise here, given the divergence between recent Durable Goods Orders and the ISM Manufacturing report.
EURUSD: The EURUSD’s consolidation and failure to set fresh highs in the wake of the Euro-zone Summit play into the budding Symmetrical Triangle on the daily chart. For now, we are looking for a pullback towards 1.2480 before the direction of the triangle is determined. Resistance to the upside comes in at 1.2700/15 (Bollinger Band, 50-DMA), and a break above suggests a test of 1.2745/50 (June high) then 1.2820. Triangle support comes in at 1.2480, and a move lower points to 1.2405/20.
USDJPY: The USDJPY is working on an Inverted Head & Shoulders pattern off of the June 1 low, with the neckline coming in at 80.60/70. Only a daily close above this level will signal the commencement of this pattern. With the Head at 77.60/70, this suggests a measured move towards 83.60/70 once initiated. Near-term support comes in at 78.85/90 (200-DMA). Price action to remain range bound as long as advances are capped by 80.60/70.
GBPUSD: The GBPUSD remains constructive in the near-term but advances look to be capped by the confluence of key moving averages around 1.5750. Furthermore, a retest of 1.5775/80 when considered in context of the moving averages in the area should see some sellers return to the market. Advances should be capped by 1.5745/50 (200-DMA) and then 1.5775/85 (June high, 50-DMA). Support comes in at 1.5595/1.5600 then 1.5480/1.5500.
AUDUSD: While our fundamental outlook for the AUDUSD is bearish long-term, we respect the recent rally off of the June 1 low and identify the move as impulsive (we can identify 5 waves up from the June 1 low). With that said, this advance thus appears to be in its final stages, and the confluence of resistance in close proximity to current price should hinder gains. 1.0265/90 (Bollinger Bank, 100-DMA) should attract sellers as should the budding RSI divergence on the 4-hour charts. Price remains supported above 1.0125.
--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst
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