Allstate's (ALL) third quarter earnings solidly beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate due to significant reduction in catastrophe losses and claims coupled with improved premiums, ROE and book value. An appreciated investment portfolio also boosted the operating cash flow and liquidity.
Agency expansions, ratings affirmation, dividend increment, product restructuring and acquisitions validate Allstate's long-term stability. Though the current volatile economy and catastrophe losses will continue to impact the results in the fourth quarter of 2012, continued synergies are expected from Allstate's industry-leading position, diversification and pricing discipline.
Our six-month target price of $48.00 per share equates to about 13.0x our earnings estimate for 2012. Combined with the $0.88 per share annual dividend, this target price implies an expected total return of 20.6% over that period, which is consistent with our Outperform recommendation.
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